The month is already well above normal as far as temperatures are concerned and there is no real threat of that changing this week. With highs only in the mid 40s this weekend, temperatures have been on the rise in the D.C. area today, making it to the lower 50s through much of the area. This is where they should stay tomorrow before falling as a weak system passes through the area on Wednesday. Here's more in my latest afternoon analysis.

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You often hear the expression, “What a difference a year makes!” Well, we can say this year, “What a difference two years makes!” In 2010 at this time, we were scrambling to find shovels and snow removal equipment for what would be a one-two winter punch that would plow through the record books and get termed "Snowmageddon."

It started out with a weak disturbance moving in from the Southwest and southern Rockies that became stronger once it moved into the Central U.S. A healthy 992 mb low pressure developed along its southern periphery on the Gulf Coast with enough lift to promote snowfall as far north as the D.C. region. As the upper energy and surface low transitioned to the Mid-Atlantic coast, snowfall rates increased overnight on the 5th into the 6th.

This storm sure found its way into the record books by the time it ended on February 6th.

The two-day total of 17.8 inches at Reagan National Airport was less than one inch away from the 18.7 inches from the February 18-19, 1979 storm and not far behind the infamous “Knickerbocker” storm that dropped 26 inches in two days from February 12-13, 1899. At Dulles International, 32.4 inches wiped out the previous two-day storm record of 23.2 inches on January 7-8, 1996 while 24.8 inches at BWI Marshal barely beat out the two-day storm record of 24.4 inches.

Mother Nature wasn’t done just yet! A strong storm came barreling out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley on February 9th before developing another impressive 992-mb low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Unlike the first storm just days ago, the winds were stronger with this storm (35 to 40 mph), making it more like a true blizzard for the region. The winners in this storm included Frederick, Baltimore, Howard and Carroll Counties where 22 to 26 inches combined with gusty winds to produce 6-foot drifts.

Here are the snowfall totals for the three major airports in our region:

These two storms helped push the monthly snowfall total to 32.1 inches; 21 inches were on the ground at Reagan National at one point after the storms ended by February 11th. Dulles International had a starting 46.1 inches for the month while BWI Marshal recorded a whopping 50 inches and a snow depth to 34 inches right after the storm on the 11th.

(Heavy snow is piled up at the National Weather Service Office in Sterling, Va. Photo courtesy of the NWS Sterling office)

This by far puts to shame the winter we’ve had this year. The seasonal total so far is 1.7 inches, which is 9 inches behind par.

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Check out some of the huge snowfall totals coming out of the Denver Metro area this morning. There's even a live video feed coming out of Fox 31 in Denver.

Black Hawk, CO - 28.5 inches          Pinecliffe, CO - 34.5 inches

Denver, CO - 10.5 inches          Conifer, CO - 27 inches         

The snow will finally come to an end there by tomorrow morning and that same system will move across the Central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley region tonight. Ok, enough about Denver, I know you all want to know about our very own chances for snow closer to home.

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Yes, yes, it's not 70 degrees outside anymore but it's still hit the upper 50s! Showers moved through the region this morning dropping a quarter of an inch or more of rain in some areas but clouds have moved to the east to make for a nice afternoon. So what's up with the weather for the end of the week and into the weekend? High pressure will continue to slide into the region tonight and plenty of sunshine will experienced Friday. The weekend will bring changes, however, as an area of low pressure moves from the Rockies towards the Mid Atlantic.

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Two good finds today on the interweb as a kid in the Seattle area used his remote controlled plane to film the winter storm a few weeks ago and our friend at WeatherBug steered me in the right direction to do a video timelapse of a cool looking storm moving through Pensacola, FL. As I like to attribute the people I find these things from, thanks to Morgan Palmer for tweeting the first video, also shown on Geekwire.com. Great story on the remote controlled plane too. The kid is a 17-year old still in high school in the Seattle area. Why didn't I think to do something cool like that when I was a kid???

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Groundhog Day is upon us and Punxsutawney Phil will exit his burrow at 7:20am Tuesday morning. You can literally watch it live if you'd like to while sitting at your desk eating your breakfast. The story goes that if he comes out and sees his shadow, he will run back into his burrow and there will be 6 more weeks of winter. If it is cloudy and there is no shadow, then there will be an early spring. Truth be told, if this website is correct, then there have been 99 times when he has seen his shadow and only 16 times when there was no shadow. It also listed him as being only 39% correct. Good job Phil.

The history, from Wikipedia of course, shows that the event started in 1841 in Berks County, Pennsylvania. The citation on that was from the History Society of Berks County in Reading, PA. It is now a big event every year with hundreds of spectators, TV coverage and much more. It always gives me an excuse to watch the movie as well. I always like Phil's prediction.

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I know you love the picture to the left so I had to include it. If only!?! Our team has gone over the numbers today, interested to see exactly how warm this January has been in the large scheme of things. In 141 years of data, going back to 1871, it appears this January ranks as the 18th warmest winter. Not only are we 5 degrees above normal for the month but we have hit the 60 degree mark 6 times (Something that hasn't happened since 2007, also tied for 18th on the list.) Ok, everyone likes to see the Top 10, so here's 18 instead!

Top Warmest January's

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Weather, Climate and “Facts”

This is a blog frankly I’m not crazy about writing, but the recent firestorm that started last week with the launch of an initiative called “Forecast the Facts” coincident with the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans compels me to weigh in. The “Forecast the Facts” (FTF)

 

stated goal is “. . . nothing short of changing how the entire profession of meteorology tackles the issue of climate change” which has included a listing of those TV weathercasters/meteorologists who they (Daniel Souweine is the director) feel are “deniers” or misrepresent the “facts” of climate change and human caused (anthropogenic) global warming (AGW). So what are the “facts”?

First the FACTS about what happened at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last week. Full disclosure I have been a Member (and elected Fellow) and active participant of the AMS in many boards, commissioner and past president since my student member days of about 45 years ago. The AMS is the largest scientific and professional society of its type in the world. The governing body of the AMS is the Council of the Society, most of whose members and AMS president are elected by the 14,000 individuals members of the Society. An open, democratic process. The various statements of the Society cover areas of science NOT politics and policy varying from science education to mobile homes to water resources, weather forecasts and yes climate change.

The FACT is that every scientific based statement of the AMS is reviewed at a minimum every 5 years. If the science-based statement is no longer relevant, it may be dropped or, as in the case of important statements such as the statement on climate change, it is reviewed and updated as necessary. The current statement on climate change is undergoing such a review by a panel of scientists and was on the agenda of the 2012 AMS Council Meeting in New Orleans. FACT all the boards, committee, AMS Council meetings are fully open to any AMS Member. A representative from FtF was at the AMS Council meeting last week and, as I was told, (yes second hand . . . not a fact) raised his hand and asked to speak. The AMS President, as in all open meetings, recognized him (AMS Member or representing FtF who knew, there are 14,000 AMS members). He then did offer his opinion that the forthcoming updated AMS Statement on climate change should be very proactive against the so-called broadcast weathercasters/meteorologists “deniers”. AMS President John Malay (yes again full disclosure I am a past president and friend of John) was cordial but said the Council scientific discussion of the statement was not the place for what is an “agenda” or “policy”’ based statement [yes, again my words not John’s]. So with that as a background, where are we in this “debate” and what are the FACTS?

 

“Deniers”, “tree huggers”, “right wingers”, “socialists”, “conspirators”, “extremists”, “fanatics” . . . well that covers a lot of the terms hurled back and forth by various groups that do have a variety of motivations be they political, policy, economic or even religious. Unfortunately, the science and most scientists are lost in the middle and, as I know, many sometimes feel as though they are being drawn and quartered by both sides of the AGW “debate” which, unfortunately, has become as polarized as much of our society these days. Anyway, what are the “FACTS” from my perspective?

Climate change “skeptics”. Every scientist I know is a “skeptic”. It’s the way science works. You observe, question, seek answers, test, form ideas, sure argue about results of experiments and conclusions and sometimes your ideas or results are shown to be incorrect. So what? We should all be skeptics. We should all seek more information and knowledge and not be drawn, or seek out only to those who agree with our ideas, be they science, political, whatever. Let’s drop the lightning rod labels above being thrown from opposite sides of the river of knowledge and understanding.

 

I personally know many of the broadcasters who have been singled out as “deniers” by FtF and I would prefer to say they are AGW agnostics. Certainly not in the religious sense (“not going there. . . wouldn’t be prudent”) but in the broad philosophical sense “The English term "agnostic" is derived from the Greek "agnostos," which means, "to not know." That some in the disbeliever or not knowing camp say that global warming science is a “hoax” or part of some global cabal of scientists working on political agendas to change the world is frankly outrageous. In the climate /global change, discussion “hoax” should also be thrown into the trash bin of incendiary words that are not part of science. I personally know many of the eminent scientists such as Warren Washington, Tom Karl, Richard Somerville, and many more. Their personal integrity and objectivity as scientists are beyond reproach. The fact is to suggest they are part of a “hoax” is just plain wrong. Other oft-citied “skeptics” such as Richard Lindzen and Pat Michaels, while they may disagree with the IPCC process and magnitude of the global changes, certainly do not feel it is a “hoax”

“Fact” is a pretty strong word in science. The “facts” of Sir Isaac Newton’s famous laws of motion don’t quite work on the scale of quantum physics. But then, much of what we accept as a “facts” don’t work there either. Science is a continuum. The “fact” that the earth was the center of the universe, widely accepted before Copernicus work and paper in 1543. Let’s just say that human caused global and climate changes are sure not “facts” but the evidence is sure showing up more and more my dear Watson. Is the science “settled” (another one of those lightning rod words)? Of course not. But the science is strong. As Sherlock Holmes, let’s follow the footprints, our human footprints.

 

 

NASA MODIS image 12/31/2003

See any human impact on the land and water in this image from about 400 miles? Notice any difference in land use along the I-95 corridor? A “hoax” from space?

Has the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased in the last 150 years?

 

  

The famous Keeling Curve. Scientist Charles David Keeling was presented the National Medal of Science by President George W. Bush in 2002 for his work.

Since about the 1700s burning of fossil fuels has released about ½ trillion tons of carbon into the atmosphere . . . 500, 000, 0000 tons and the concentration of CO2 has increased today by almost 40% from 300 years ago. Solid science and solid observations or a “hoax”?

 

 

 

Minimum extent of arctic sea ice since 1972

 

 
Changes in ocean acidity in last 300 years. Data from Global Ocean Data Analysis Project

 

 

So what does this all have to do with the firestorm that FtF has created? I’m afraid, whatever the good intentions on trying to show the scientific misstatements, it has only created more polarization on the topic. We can learn by discussing and understanding and frankly putting our agendas, biases, personal beliefs, economic theories, politics, etc. on the table first and not using my science as a Piñata to confuse the public. I would hope thoughtful discussion leading to better decisions is still possible.  Maybe I'm still a dreamer but I hope not. My friend and broadcast colleague John Toohey-Morales and I wrote about this in a guest editorial

“Outing” so called “deniers” with selective quotes almost falls into the camp of those political agendists who also cherry pick data or a sentence from a scientific report to support their agenda. I have written before that “Nature has no Agenda”. The world, our climate is changing. Climate, the globe, the earth, our lives are not static; change is part of time, part of who and what we are and where we live. Do we choose to accept these changes without changing ourselves? Ah, my dear Watson that is the question.
What should we do . . . what should you do? How about stop yelling at each other for one thing. Learn more. Keep an open mind. Yes be a “skeptic”. What don’t we know and why? What will happen to our world and our grandchildren's world in the future as the  chemical changes now taking place in the atmosphere and ocean continue? Sure, dramatic climate/environment/earth changes have happened in the past. Ask a dinosaur about the K-T boundary and the Chicxulub crater. Unlike our long extinct reptilian friends we have consciousness of our world.  We have science to help us understand what will happen.  And finally learn a bit more.  Read really interesting and thought provoking articles and books about science, politics and policy and climate change. Two favorites. The Forgiving Air and The Climate Fix. At least look at a few of the links I’ve provided. I’m sure some of my colleagues have different views and I look forward to their blogs .  Blogs with a different view?  Well maybe not a FACT, but at least a  hope.  We can all still learn and help our future generations participate in the critical decisions ahead by enlightenment rather than continuing to yell.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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What a great start to the work week with sunny skies and seasonally average temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Changes lurk on the horizon but I think you're going to like them. Highs tomorrow and Wednesday should reach the 60 degree mark once again. It appears like it will be the 6th time we've reached that mark in January, though it will be close as some of the models only top out at 59... At least we don't have to worry about -60 degrees like Alaska!

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You just HAVE to check this out, Fort Yukon, Alaska hit -60°F for the second day in a row! The warmest it has been there in the past 3 days in -35°F with the coldest being -62°F. That is just incredible, and pretty much the story of the month. Cold air has been in place in Alaska and Canada for much of the month. There just hasn't been any help to displace any of that cold air south into the lower 48.

Temperatures as of 10am Jan. 30

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We thought we might be cruising into winter early with the Halloween winter storm that brought several inches of snow north and west of the District… with Frostburg, Md., getting 11.6 inches, Sabillasville, Md., picking up 11.5 inches, portions of Baltimore and Carroll County getting 4 to 8 inches but only 0.6 inches at Dulles International and only a Trace recorded at Reagan National. We quickly realized just how subtle winter would become.

November brought a few rain storms with temperatures 2.8 degrees above average. Skipping forward to the first month of winter…December was more like fall. Only a trace of snow accumulated at Reagan National with temperatures a balmy 5.3 degrees above average. Historically, January is the snowiest month in the District. This year it's proved to be quite the winter weather tease. The snow that fell came in very small increments! About a half-inch fell on the 9th, 20th and 21st…. with a grand total of 1.7 inches....a far cry from an average of 5.6 inches. The average snowfall at Reagan National for the winter season is 14.5 inches. Therefore, we need 12.8 inches of snow to break even for the winter season.

Looking ahead, winter remains absent until early next weekend. A trough moving into the East will bring temperatures back to seasonal averages with a possible storm track through the Ohio Valley or along the Carolina Coast. Either way, we could be talking about a wintery mix that could bring a little snow. Through mid-February, temperatures should remain near to slightly above average with a few shots of one or two days of cold weather. I think any wintery precipitation would be light and brief.

If you’re a fan of winter, you’ll want Punxsutawney Phil to see his shadow on Groundhog Day, which is quickly approaching this Thursday! A few snow flurries could be flying in Punxsutawney, Pa., for the big event that attracts thousands each year.

Have a safe and happy week!

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Last weekend was just awful, let's just throw that out there. Temperatures at 34 or less along with snow and cold rain and freezing rain just don't work for me. This weekend will be different for the right reasons. Highs should be at or above normal with a mix of sun and clouds. The end. Ok I'm kidding, here's a little more information on the weekend forecast so you can plan accordingly.

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It hit the upper 60s in parts of the region this morning ahead of a strong cold front. This is about 15 to 20 degrees above the normal highs for this time of year but it isn't even the warmest it's reached in January over the past few years. Also keep in mind the high so far today at Reagan National Airport is still 12 degrees below our record high of 75 for the 27th of January. Take a look at the past 6 January's below to see how many times it hit 60 degrees, what the high temperature was for the month, how much snow was reported and what the monthly temperature departure was.

Climotological data the past 6 January's

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Severe thunderstorms are once again pounding parts of the Deep South today across Alabama and Georgia. The threat for severe weather extends all the way into the Carolinas this evening and tonight as this strong frontal system moves east. What's even more interesting is by tomorrow morning, the D.C. area could even be in on the chance for a few thunderstorms. There's even the chance for a few severe thunderstorms for parts of the Delmarva. You call this January huh? Here's a look at the next 72 hours in my latest afternoon analysis.

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Every day I write down the sunrise and sunset on my forecast sheet which got me thinking how much time have we gained since the Winter Solstice? It turns out that in a little over a month, D.C. has gained 36 minutes of additional daylight. It's also interesting to note that the majority of that daylight was gained in the evening and not in the morning, with only 4 minutes gained in the morning compared to 33 in the evening. While those numbers officially do not add up (haha), they are correct as there are seconds involved as well which were not included. To see for yourself, check out the U.S. Naval Observatory's page on the duration of daylight and darkness for a year and go to "Computer Table".

Table of sunrise and set times and duration of daylight in Washington, D.C.

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An area of low pressure has been moving through Texas over the past 24 hours, dropping very heavy rainfall and reports of severe weather. This system will be moving towards the D.C. area through Friday which will bring our own chance for some rain. Just when will it get here and how much rain can the D.C. area expect? Here is more in my latest afternoon analysis.

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The largest geomagnetic storm since 2003 has come and gone at this point, bringing with it a lot of solar radiation and plenty of beautiful auroras. Here was one I found while looking around online which was taken in northern Sweden in Abisko National Park. Watch the timelapse which was taken over a 3 hour period on the 24th.

Lights Over Lapland Photo Expedition video of CME impact on 1-24-2012 from Lights Over Lapland on Vimeo.

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What a difference a day makes!  The district was a good 10 degrees warmer than yesterday (and that's just comparing the daily highs). 

It actually feels a lot warmer than yesterday, since temperatures through most of the day, yesterday, were only in the 30s!  Yesterday's high of 44 degrees was recorded at 11:59 PM.  So that got me, and a few other ABC7 meteorologists, thinking.  Hasn't this "high at midnight" occurence been more prevalant over the past month or so?  I figured I'd take a look just out of idle curiousity. 

Normally high temperatures occur in the afternoon when we've recieved the most amount of daylight, but approaching weather systems can certainly have an impact on this.  A perfect example was yesterday.  It was chilly, drizzly, and gray all day.  As a warm front lifted over the region, temperatures started to climb.

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After a cool, damp and foggy start across the region this morning, skies have clear and temperatures have warmed into the 50s and 60s. High pressure will be the main story tonight and through the day tomorrow before changes enter in for Thursday. Wednesday will start off sunny but clouds will increase by the afternoon hours. Exactly when should we expect the rain to begin on Thursday and will it end by the weekend? Here's more in my latest afternoon analysis.

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Generally a trace of ice was reported from last night into this morning across the D.C. area after a bit of a wintry weekend. With 1.8 inches of snow now in the record books at Reagan National Airport, D.C is now 4.8 inches below normal for the year and I don't really see any big snow making potential in the coming days. Today we had to worry about some morning freezing drizzle and rain as well as the fog. This was a problem because of the cold air damming which has kept our area in the 30s today. Here's more on today's weather  and the next few days in the latest afternoon analysis.

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