(Photo: projectyose.com)

Have you ever been to Yosemite National Park? I haven't. That's why I always check the web for videos such as the one below. There is nothing I love more than timelapses of awesome scenery and weather. It's always an added bonus when it is from the United States!

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This isn't something the D.C. area has to worry about in the near future... Parts of the Panhandle of Texas had to deal with a powerful dust storm yesterday. It caused numerous accidents, near zero visibility, and even 2 deaths. This was all caused by very strong winds behind a cold front which picked up the dust and dirt. Around Noon yesterday, winds were out of the west sustained at 46 m.p.h. gusting to 56 m.p.h. Winds gusted to at least 48 m.p.h. for over 2 and a half hours. There's a pretty neat looking video and package here from the NBC Nightly News yesterday. Check out this picture from space as well from yesterday afternoon.

MODIS image of the dust storm from space

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What a bummer of a weekend for the D.C. snow lovers as Central and Southwestern Virginia getting the brunt of the storm. Snowfall totals up to 9 inches fell over parts of SW Virginia and Southern West Virginia this weekend. The highest totals were 9.8 inches in Alleghany County, Virginia and 9.6 inches in Montgomery County, Virginia which is near Blacksburg. Locally, only an inch or two of snow fell in Southern Maryland and closer to D.C. but up to 6 inches or more fell in areas such as Orange County, VA and south towards Charlottesville and in the mountains along I-64. Here's a look at how much snow fell from the National Snow Analysis page.

Estimated Snowfall Depth (NOAA/NOHRSC)

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If you make plans Presidents' Day weekend in the Mid-Atlantic, yes, you are taking a chance winter weather could put a huge dent in what you are hoping to do. The reason—this weekend typically is infamous for major winter storms in our region… just not this weekend!

While most of our “biggie” winter storms track from the Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic Coast, this weekend’s storm doesn’t bode well for the District. We look for the northern and southern jet stream, or river of fast-moving air aloft, to come together across the Deep South to form a generous low pressure. In today’s storm, the “phasing” of the jet streams is just not happening. The northern stream moves much faster, which sends the southern moisture east or out to sea (see below image).

Therefore, there will be a very sharp drop off in the snowfall across the northern fringes, which is where we are located with respect to the greatest moisture. While just a few flurries will fly in the District late this afternoon and tonight, a dusting to an inch could fall in places like Fredericksburg and Culpeper where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect with a bit more along the Blue Ridge spine well south of Front Royal, Va. The bulls eye for this storm will be Roanoke, Va., where a half-foot is possible.

However, it was a much different story 33 years ago this weekend.. February 18-19, 1979. A southern storm brought heavy snow to the Nation’s Capital. As a matter of fact, both days set snowfall records.

This storm was the worst to strike the District in more than 50 years. Totals ranged up to 20 inches in northern Virginia and Maryland with snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour (one hour in that storm equals the seasonal total so far this winter at Reagan National… 2.0 inches!). Temperatures hovered in the single digits and teens with four deaths reported in Virginia and 18 deaths from people falling on ice.

This wasn’t the only winter storm on memory for this particular weekend. The Presidents' Day weekend in 2003 featured a southern storm that began in Oklahoma and made its track to the North Carolina Coast. By the time the snow ended on President’s Day (February 17, 2003), Reagan National was blasted with 26.8 inches, BWI Marshal accumulated 26.8 inches while Dulles had 21.7 inches. Schools already off on Monday enjoyed the rest of the week off for snow removal.

Car buried in snow near College Park, Md., after the Presidents' Day Blizzard of 2003. Photo courtesy of Andy Weiss.

So, we have escaped winter’s fury so far (Knock on wood for non-snow fans)…. and with 10 days left in Meteorological Winter (can’t forget Leap Day!) there is very little opportunity to come up with enough snow to push us back to average… 14.5 inches.

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Boy have we been watching this possible Sunday snow for some time.  Hard to believe here on Saturday afternoon with the temperature near 60° that snow by this time tomorrow is even possible.  Here is where the storm is right now.

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Another day has gone by and it still appears that a storm will affect the east coast on Sunday. There are still numerous questions as to the strength and exact track this system will take but here are some of my thoughts as of Friday afternoon.

The D.C. Metro area shouldn’t expect a heavy snow storm. I say this for many reasons which I am more than happy to outline. The first and primary reason is the storm is a fast mover and will move off the east coast and into the ocean rather quickly. This will only allow for a couple of hours of precipitation. Precipitation amounts also appear like they will be light with only a quarter to a half of an inch of liquid. If this is the case, which is not set in stone, if it all falls as snow, then a 10:1 snow ratio would only give 2.5 to 5 inches maximum. Not a big storm.

Further delving into the reality that a heavy snow storm is unlikely, the forecast track of the low is unfavorable for heavy snow as it does not intensify and curve up the coast towards the northeast. Usually when that happens it brings heavier snowfall for a longer duration. Finally there is the whole question about the models. Each does show a storm developing in Texas, moving along the Gulf and eventually off the east coast. A number have now been trending farther to the south with some even showing no precipitation at all for the D.C. area.

Sunday evening forecast of 6 hour precip and MSLP

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Adam Caskey's 'snow excitement factor' has steadily increased throughout the week. (Photo: ABC7)

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• Snow Chance: Likely
• Time: Sunday
• Forecast Confidence: Average to Below Average
• Snow Excitement Factor: 3 out of 10
• Snow Amount: TBD (read below for possibilities)

It’s now fair to say that snow is likely on Sunday, but what remains a mystery is the amount of snow that will fall upon Washington.

Model guidance is still in some disagreement on the exact track of the storm and certain interactions in our atmosphere, which will be critical in determining snow totals. I’ll break it down for you in simple terms regarding the computer models and odds in terms of snow totals.

This will be a coastal storm, which is the type of storm that generates the highest snowfall in the Washington area, however, Doug Hill stated an important point this morning, “…this will NOT be another Snowmageddon.” It’s also important to note that we’re trying to predict the outcome of a storm that has yet to develop, nevertheless, I can provide preliminary odds of snow amounts.

As of now, I think this will be a low to moderate impact storm system for Washington, and I’m currently leaning towards “low impact.”

 

Before jumping into some of my rationale, above is a graphic indicating the odds of getting various accumulations in the D.C. metro area. I do think a trace to 2 inches is likely (60 percent) with 3 to 6 inches possible but unlikely (30 percent) and more than 6 inches highly unlikely but possible (10 percent).

It’s more than just figuring out how much moisture will be squeezed out of the clouds and how that translates into snowfall. Other factors such as surface/ground & road temperatures, phase changes, crystal composition, timing, intensity and more needs to be determined.

Model guidance has yet to be very reliable this winter, and this situation is no exception, which is why my confidence is “average to below average” but rising. The projected tracks of various models are shown in the graphic below and while it may look like they’re pretty close, in fact, the disparity is significant in terms of the overall effect on our region.

Basically, fellow snow lovers need to hope for the most northerly track (white - NAM), and snow haters need to pull for the southerly track (DARK BLUE – NAVY). Neither of which are guaranteed, of course.

As much as I’d love to, I can’t buy into the northerly & very snowy track as I’ve notice poor performance and great inconsistencies in this model beyond 18 hours all winter, and the most southerly track is a bit of an outlier. In turn, a blend seems in order as is the case is many situations. However, I have more confidence in the yellow track (CMC) as it has shown more consistency over the past few days.

In regards to precipitation type, I do think it will mainly be snow in the D.C. area with a rain to snow transition likely south of D.C. However, I must go back to persistence like in my previous posts and note that model guidance has had a tough time nailing precipitation type all winter.

Nonetheless, should we see rain, it would be brief in the metro area with a quick changeover to snow. This is just a basic assessment, and remember that we will have updates all day and through the weekend here on wjla.com.

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We have the largest team of broadcast meteorologists in Washington and, with our new mobile app, we can be with you all the time.  Many of the features of this new app are unique to us.  Here's a quick demo:

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Only two inches of snow have been measured so far this winter at Reagan National Airport. (Photo: Jay Westcott)

Update 12pm: Per 12z data, my Snow Excitement Factor has increased to a 3.5 out of 10.  Precipitation looks more likely (60%), but the type of precipitation is a big question mark. It's turning into a situation where we shift the focus from whether or not we get hit to what type, when, where and how much.  Model guidance has had more difficulty with P-type more than anything this winter.

Previous Discussion:

The likelihood of a weekend storm affecting D.C. has increased. Though let me know what you think of this as Sunday’s forecast: cloudy & breezy with a chance of rain and/or snow and/or sleet or no precipitation at all. I wish I could get more specific, but that’s the best we can do at this point. Model guidance has come a little closer together in their solutions for the Sunday event, but the guidance is still far from agreement.

I’d love a whopper snowstorm as much as any other snow enthusiast, but I’m still not confident in a big hit of snow just yet. I’d give it a Snow Excitement Factor of 2 out of 10 for now, which is hopeful but not optimistic. Sure, the predicted interactions in the atmosphere and possible storm tracks are more similar amongst the models than before, but there is still much uncertainty, so we need to wait and see a little longer.

Some of the individual models have flip-flopped, but at least there seems to be more of a trend and convergence in solutions compared to what we had to work with yesterday. However, it’s important to note that this does not mean the models will continue to trend together. I’ve seen it many times where they come close together then quickly diverge again.

Another important factor is what I mentioned yesterday, and that’s persistence. It’s fair to say that the models have had a rough time so far this winter, so I hold little stock in them for these dynamic situations. Also, it’s tough to get the necessary phasing of the northern energy along with the southern energy in these La Nina winters, but it’s not impossible and does happen.

 

As usual, the exact track of the storm will play a major role on the type and amount of precipitation we receive, and the path of uncertainty and various model suggestions for the storm track are shown in the posted graphics. Should the storm system take the more southerly track, it will have less of an impact on Washington, but a more northerly track would lead to bigger impacts and possibly a solid hit of snow.

This storm hasn’t even organized yet, and we’re trying to predict the outcome in a very unpredictable winter.  There have been winters where this was possible ('09-'10), but recent history has proven otherwise. 

 

 

 

 

 

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This spectacular video has already been watched around 130,000 times but I think we can push it up to at least 150,000. This is really cool, enjoy! Check out the website dakotalapse.com for more information on how he made this and other videos. You can also find them on Facebook and Twitter. If you think I am promoting him then I guess I am because this is really awesome!

Temporal Distortion from Randy Halverson on Vimeo.

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How likely is a wallop of snow this weekend? Adam Caskey isn't too optimistic. (Photo: ABC7)

Here we go again. All it took was a few long range model runs to start the buzz and get folks worried about a weekend nor’easter. Don’t get me wrong, I like the chatter about weather and enjoy a challenging forecast, however, it remains too early to have a good idea of what will happen.

Nevertheless, provide an adequate degree of certainty regarding the possibilities.

Let’s not forget history too as this scenario has been the story of our winter due to our given weather pattern. There have been several could-be snowstorms, and what do we have to show for it? Only a mere 2.0” at Reagan National Airport (DCA) and 3.7” at Dulles Airport (IAD) so far this winter.

I am an absolute snow lover, and I’d love to put snow in the forecast for the weekend, but I simply can’t do that yet because it’d just be a “wishcast,” which does no good. I do think snowfall is a slight possibility this weekend in the D.C. area, however, I currently believe it is unlikely.

It’s possible but not probable. As frustrating at it may be, it's too soon to tell. The ingredients are there, they just have to be perfectly mixed, which has proven difficult this winter. As a matter of fact, I think it’s irresponsible to start talking about the snow potential for Sunday as early as Monday or Tuesday in the given weather pattern this winter.

Our path of uncertainty given the current model tracks

That said, I still think it’s too early, but I’ve fielded too many inquiries to wait. Two years ago it was a different story as the prevailing pattern was more predictable and model guidance had a good track record over the course of the winter. Ah, the good old days! 

As WTOP/ABC7 meteorologist Chris Naille, put it, "There are more questions than answers at this time especially considering we are talking about a system that is over 4 days away.

"At this stage, no one can responsibly forecast this potential event beyond stating that Sunday looks to feature mostly cloudy skies, gusty winds and cooler temperatures."

I’ll try to give you a quick rundown of a few model trends without getting too complicated. First of all, the ECMWF (Euro) model was recently gung ho about a nor’easter hitting Washington over the weekend but has since laid off that solution as of the 12z Tue and 00z Wed model runs, which now keep the storm track and all precipitation to our south.

Typically this is a fairly reliable model, but has proven otherwise this winter. The 00z Wed GFS came into line with previous ECMWF runs by phasing two systems and slamming us with the storm, but this also had a big spread in the ensemble mean, which is fairly common this far out. Not to mention the GFS indicated a higher chance of rain than snow.

Now the latest (06z) GFS is trending farther south and looks less ominous. So far it seems as though the CMC (Canadian) has been the most consistent indicating a southerly storm track and just a glancing blow or a close call with little to no impact. Due to persistence, I’m not holding much stock in any individual solution at this time and have very little confidence in a snowstorm despite desperately wanting a whopper.

As of now, I’m keeping my weekend travel plans but also closely watching the trends.

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A lot of weather weenies have been wishcasting a snow storm this weekend as some model guidance hints at the potential of a coastal low passing by on Sunday. I, for one, am one of the wishers! I mean, come on, 2 inches for the entire winter? Give me a break! Instead of blog about the possibilities of what could happen with such low confidence in the models this winter, I decided to check and see what big snowfalls occurred this late in the winter in the D.C. area.

Top 5 Heaviest Snowfalls after February 14th in Washington, D.C.

1) February 19th, 1979:  14.0 inches (also had 4.7 inches on the 18th for a whopping 18.7 inch storm)

2) February 16th, 2003:  13.3 inches

3) February 15th, 1958: 12.9 inches

4) March 29th, 1942:  11.5 inches

5) March 4th, 1909: 9.8 inches

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It looks like we'll get a taste of some true winter weather this weekend.  A bit of snow and a cold blast will move into the region.  When I say a "cold blast" in our area, we'll experience temperatures, finally, below average.  Highs will be in the 30s with overnight lows falling into the 20s.  Couple the colder air with the gusty winds and wind chill values will be in the teens.

NWS

It will certainly feel cold, especially compared to the relatively mild winter we've experienced thus far.  Now, we won't break any records with this cold snap, and trust me, that's a good thing!  As I've been forecasting this week, I've noticed climate data indicating record low temperatures below 0°.  The high and low records for Feb. 9-12 all occured in 1899, during the Great Arcitc Outbreak.  Here's a map that shows the temperature and snowfall from February 10-11th (more on the blizzard below).

Barbara M. Watson

Right here in D.C., low temperatures fell to -15°, which remains the coldest temperature on record in D.C. to date.  Not only did D.C. get hit with intense cold, but so did much of the Eastern United States.  February 1899 startred off with a two week period of extremely cold weather.  All time record minimum temperatures were set in 12 states from the Central and Southern Plains, to the Southeast, and right here in D.C. 

The Arctic Outbreak culminated with a strong low pressure system that would go down in history as the Great Blizzard of 1899.   Here's a surface map from 1899 on February 12th. 

"Weather and Forecasting" - Kocin, Weiss, Wagner

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And away we go...

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A complex weather system will make its way east today through the Midwest and Ohio Valley bringing with it light snow and rain showers. I say this system is complex because it's not just one area of low pressure, but the combination of a strong polar cold front combining energy with a disturbance that has tracked east from the Plains. Energy will then transition to a coastal low off the Carolina coastline Saturday morning which should then rapidly intensify as it heads northeast over the Atlantic. Getting a little more complicated now? Here's our latest thoughts in our video update. 

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Take a look at a few timelapses from earlier today courtesy of our WeatherBug cameras from across the region.

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Wednesday brought such piddly amounts of snow which got the twitter folk hashtagging #flurrygeddon. We think more of the same will be experienced Friday night into Saturday morning as we head into the weekend. This system will definitely pack a little more of a punch though as a very strong cold front dives into the region and a coastal low looks to intensify off the east coast. Here is a video update on the system-at-large which will visit us for the start of the weekend.

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The whimpy system that moved over our area today didn't leave too much for snow lovers.  I have to say, I was a little disappointed we didn't see any flakes in DC.  Folks North and West of the metro area did get a bit of snow to, at least, satisfy the "winter wonderland" feeling.  Here's a picture from one of our WeatherBug cameras, earlier this afternoon, in Ijamsville, MD.

WeatherBug Camera

Snow totals were slim to none across the region.  Smithsburg, in Frederick County, MD, picked up a whopping two inches (can you sense a little sarcasm from the snow lover here?).  Most other spots, that saw snow, received anywhere from a trace to 1.5 inches.  Here are the latest snowfall reports from the National Weather Service.

I know some people were perfectly content with the little to no accumulations today.  Others were hoping for more.  Regardless of how you feel, let's take a quick trip back memory lane to two years ago, almost to the day, -- SNOWMAGEDON! 

The same areas in Frederick that saw between 1 and 2 inches of snow today were buried under 25 inches of snow two years ago today.  Here's a map of the total snowfall during this storm.

NWS

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I recorded this last evening though our new HD camera looking over the National Mall and Washington.  It is the Full Snow Moon.  The moon rises with an orange glow due to scattering of the blue part of the light (that's the reason the sky is blue) and reddish light is transmitted.  As the moon gets higher it becomes a bright white and you can also watch again and see the reflection of the moon on the Potomac River.  Enjoy

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Snow has begun to fall and it may affect tonight's commute (Photo: Ben Rice) (Photo: Brad Bell)

 6:10pm:

Final Update - Pretty much all of the rain/snow is wrapping up around the region.  Look for clearing skies overnight and falling temperatures.  Watch out for icy spots on the roads early tomorrow morning. 

5:25pm:

Latest image of Snow Machine:  Temperatures still above freezing in the metro area.  Rain/Snow will wrap up within the next few hours.  Maybe a few wet snowflakes for DC, as the moisture tapers off and pushes East. 

Live Doppler: 5:20PM

3:47pm:

Snowfall Reports

Thurmont, MD - 1.5 inches

Frostburg, MD - 1.2 inches

Martinsburg, WV - 0.3 inches on the grass

Waterford, VA (In Loudoun Co.) - 0.1 inches

Have a report? Let us know on Facebook or Twitter.

3:21pm:

Since the snow hasn't been that much of a factor, temperatures are above freezing and this event should end in the next few hours, the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled for Montgomery, Loudoun and Fauquier Counties. It is still posted for Frederick County in MD and points west, the Panhandle of WV and Clarke and Frederick Counties in VA until 8pm.

3:14pm:

Everything is beginning to changeover to snow in the 270 cooridor near Germantown and Gaithersburg and points west. Also, snow is beginning to mix in around Dulles Airport and points west into Loudoun County, VA. Temperatures are around the freezing mark north and west of D.C. and some light accumulations will be possible through the remainder of the afternoon in the grassy areas. A few slick spots will be possible on lesser traveled roadways so be careful out there as you make your way home. Snow should come to an end later this evening.

2:19pm:

Video Blog time! Check out the latest cameras across the region as well as my latest thoughts on the snow... or lack thereof...

1:22pm:

Keep an eye on the D.C. road temperatures this afternoon and evening closer to the evening rush. This could be worth a bookmark!

Some light rain will move into the D.C. Metro area over the next hour or two. We still think it will change over to some very light snow later this afternoon and evening before coming to an end. Light snow remains over the Winter Weather Advisory area but temperatures are still in the low to mid 30s. 

12:55pm:

@MADUSWX has reported light snow in Gaithersburg with visibilities around 2 to 3 miles. 

@ArlingtonDES has reported the county has entered Phase 1 Alert and snow crews will handle the snow as it comes.

It may be a few hours before snow even hits the D.C. Metro area. Could even be closer to 4pm until D.C. sees its first flakes. North and west of town, light snow has been falling but only sticking in the grassy areas. Please tweet me at @alexliggitt if you happen to see anything sticking to the roadways. Send me some pictures too! Thanks for your help!

12:35pm:

Light snow is now being reported in Frederick, MD and west of the Blue Ridge from Hagerstown, MD to Winchester, VA along the I-81 cooridor. Light accumulations in the grass will be possible with temperatures still above freezing. Road temperatures are mainly in the 40s.

12:17pm:

Did the snow moon foreshadow the light snow?

11:18am:

Snow is moving east into Loudoun and Frederick counties at this time. It should reach western Montgomery and Fairfax by Noon. This is light snow and should just make for some wet roadways. Temperatures are all still in the mid 30s. There will also be numerous breaks in the snow through the afternoon.

10:50am:

Here's the Winter Weather Advisory put out by the National Weather Service. It runs until 10pm tonight. This is where the highest likelihood for measureable (1-2") of snow is possible.

Timing seems to be shaping up for a start in the early afternoon in the D.C. Metro, a little earlier for Fairfax and Montgomery and later farther to the east.

10:33am:

From @WTOP, federal employees in the DC area have the option for unscheduled leave or telework.

10:25am:

The first flakes were just reported in Hagerstown from twitter user @JY_LMAWW. Please send me any pictures if you can to @alexliggitt on twitter or to iwitness@wjla.com. Adam Caskey will also take pictures on his facebook page and display them on the Noon newscast! be sure to check out Live Super Doppler through the day to see where the snow is and check out some of the trafficland.com cameras to check out the local road conditions.

10:05am:

The official ABC 7 Weather Team's Snow Forecast

9:54am:

Here is the Stormscan as of 8:45am this morning

An area of light snow will move towards the region through the remainder of the day, bringing light snowfall accumulations later this afternoon. With temperatures currently in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees in the D.C. Metro, we are hopeful that much of the snow will melt on contact with the roadways but do expect some isolated slick spots or slushy areas to develop later this afternoon. The area with the biggest concern will be north and west of D.C. where the potential for 2 or more inches of snow exists. Check out the latest camera image from Frostburg, MD in our WeatherBug network where it has already begun to snow!

Frostburg

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