I have also been going over some temperature data comparing the past 4 years to this year.  Over a 4 year period from 2005 through 2008, 36 out of 48 months had above normal temperatures.  That happens to be 75% of all of the months during the period.  Well there have been some big changes this year, with only 2 out of the 10 months so far being above normal for temperatures.  This doesn't mean that the whole country is just like our weather here in DC, but there are some trends here that are surprising.  Here are the past 4 years.

2005    9 of 12 months above-normal, 75% of the months above-normal

2006    8 of 12 months above-normal, 67% of the months above-normal

2007    9 of 12 months above-normal, 75% of the months above-normal

2008    10 of 12 months above-normal, 83% of the months above-normal

Each year seemed just about even, with few stretches of cool weather and long stretches of above-normal temperatures.  Now there is this year.

2009    2 of 10 months above-normal, 20% of the months above normal

This is where the questions arise, at least for our area, and maybe even for other ares around the globe.  Is this cooling just part of the normal climate cycle, does it have to do with the lack of sunspots and the cycle of sunspots that lasts around 11 years, does it have to do with El Nino and how it is strengthening, or is it something else?  All good questions that I do not necessarily have answers to.  I could be swayed with the sunspots, as typically cooler stretches on earth have been with years of little sunspot activity on the sun.  So what does this mean for our winter?  Well, I think we are in for a big winter regardless of what happens with our temperature differences.  We have had below normal snowfall totals that past 6 years.  This is something that has not occurred in recorded history in the DC area (hoping that my numbers are right on that, but really think they are).  That alone tells me that we are overdue for a few good storms, or at least a winter where we have snowfall totals for the Winter months of over 15 inches.  We'll have more on this later, I think I have rambled enough for the night!

Here is a little of what we can expect...  With the current area of low pressure tracking through the Plains to the north towards the Great Lakes, there is not much we will have to worry about through the day on Friday.  High pressure is dominating the northeast and helping to block and steer the system to our west.  The associated cold front is expected to drag behind the low as it deepens (another word meteorologists use for strengthen, as basically the central pressure of the system lowers and the height minimums aloft lower) and eventually cross the region late Saturday and into Sunday morning.  Different models are showing different depictions to when exactly rain will develop across the region, but we are banking towards a low chance for showers Saturday evening and a higher chance during the overnight hours into Sunday morning, with after Midnight being the highest likelihood.

Now temperatures should be perfect, even for the costumes that aren't quite as warm.  Temperatures should reach the mid 70s during the afternoon hours, but should settle back into the 60s as you walk out the door to various parties or venture into the neighborhood for good ole trick-or-treating.  Oh another note, I need to get more candy, as somehow my stash I already had somehow disappeared prior to Halloween night.  A good thing for you and the kids, or just you, or anyone, is that we will get an extra hour of sleep Sunday morning, as we turn back the clocks.  Can't complain about that, so feel free to let the kids stay up an extra hour and wear off their sugar highs before bed.  Have a safe weekend and keep it slow on the roads!!!