From the ABC 7 Weather team

D.C. Monday forecast: Expect rain. Or not. Or maybe so

June 27, 2011 - 04:54 AM
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Grab your umbrella Monday and Tuesday, as there's a chance for thunderstorms. Then again, maybe nothing at all will happen.

Is the real estate in your purse or bag precious enough to require a
daily inventory-resorting process depending on the weather? Subtract the coin purse and notebook, add an umbrella?

Then today and Tuesday will be particularly vexing. It could rain on both days. But then again, it might not.

A protective sheath of high pressure is taking its act to the ocean, leaving D.C. exposed to an incoming barrage of atmospheric disturbances. On Monday, the tailspin from that departing high pressure will kick up a bunch of humid southern air, driving temperatures into the upper 80s/lower 90s and creating an outbreak of sweaty underarms.

“It’s going to be more muggy and humid,” says ABC7 meteorologist Steve
Rudin
. “Although it probably won’t be worthy of any type of weather
advisory, even though the temperatures will be above average.”

Showers are possible this afternoon and night, particularly to the south and west of the District where a wavering warm front is poking up from the Carolinas. Any rain would be scattered throughout the region; Rudin gives a 30 percent chance D.C.-goers will get wet. That means there is a 70 percent chance you will be annoyed tomorrow if you made the crucial choice to carry an umbrella.

On Tuesday, the odds of a thunderstorm increase to about 50 percent as a cold front enters the region in the late afternoon or evening. Some model runs have shown tremendous amounts of moisture developing in the hours before the front arrives, creating the risk of flash flooding. Keep aware of this possible deluge with the latest ABC7 forecast.

If it doesn't pour, it will just be a steamy, unpleasant Tuesday afternoon, with highs likely topping out in the 90s. “It’ll be a nice day to hang out in the shade,” says Rudin. Or to deploy your bone-dry umbrella as a sun shield. Or use it to fight off packs of thirsty black-bear cubs.

This frustrating weather pattern looks to stick around for a while. Here’s what the local National Weather Service had to say about it in the agency’s Sunday weather discussion: “Next weekend we are back in the tricky unsettled pattern we have been in recently… in which it could rain at almost any time… but will not actually rain most of the time.”

The solution is pretty obvious: Get an umbrella hat.

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