Believe it or not, the severe weather risk on Sunday comes from our old friend Tropical Storm Lee. Its upper-level center is spinning across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. On Sunday, it will scoot east and bring a fresh round of scattered thunderstorms. Even though the storms won't be as widespread as the downpours we had all this week, it will only take a shower or storm producing 0.50 inch in an hour to cause flash flooding, per the latest Flash Flood Guidance from the National Weather Service. Although much less than earlier in the week, the "precipitable water" or amount of rain that could fall from any given shower or storm is just over 1", so flash flooding will easily be triggered in the storms Sunday.
What's even worse is the threat for gusty winds and hail. The freezing height will be lower, so updrafts in storms could easily generate golf ball sized hail and winds in the mid and upper-levels will be strong, leading to the gusts in the 45-55 mph range.
The Storm Prediction Center has the Interstate 95 corridor in the "Slight" Risk for severe weather Sunday afternoon.
Incidentally, some locations south and east of the District had almost a foot of rain since Irene tracked across the region two weeks ago! A WeatherBug Tracking Station at Leondardtown Elementary School has recorded 11.09 inches of rain since the last weekend in August!Precipitation at Reagan National is just about 7 inches above normal for the year while BWI is an astonishing 12.70 inches above normal for the year!
Fortunately, after Sunday's threat for storms, a slow drying trend looks in the offing through much of next week until a cold front finally brings cooler, drier changes to the weather for the second half of next week!
Stay tuned to ABC7 and WTOP Radio for the latest forecast and have a great weekend!