If you make plans Presidents' Day weekend in the Mid-Atlantic, yes, you are taking a chance winter weather could put a huge dent in what you are hoping to do. The reason—this weekend typically is infamous for major winter storms in our region… just not this weekend!

While most of our “biggie” winter storms track from the Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic Coast, this weekend’s storm doesn’t bode well for the District. We look for the northern and southern jet stream, or river of fast-moving air aloft, to come together across the Deep South to form a generous low pressure. In today’s storm, the “phasing” of the jet streams is just not happening. The northern stream moves much faster, which sends the southern moisture east or out to sea (see below image).

Therefore, there will be a very sharp drop off in the snowfall across the northern fringes, which is where we are located with respect to the greatest moisture. While just a few flurries will fly in the District late this afternoon and tonight, a dusting to an inch could fall in places like Fredericksburg and Culpeper where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect with a bit more along the Blue Ridge spine well south of Front Royal, Va. The bulls eye for this storm will be Roanoke, Va., where a half-foot is possible.

However, it was a much different story 33 years ago this weekend.. February 18-19, 1979. A southern storm brought heavy snow to the Nation’s Capital. As a matter of fact, both days set snowfall records.

This storm was the worst to strike the District in more than 50 years. Totals ranged up to 20 inches in northern Virginia and Maryland with snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour (one hour in that storm equals the seasonal total so far this winter at Reagan National… 2.0 inches!). Temperatures hovered in the single digits and teens with four deaths reported in Virginia and 18 deaths from people falling on ice.

This wasn’t the only winter storm on memory for this particular weekend. The Presidents' Day weekend in 2003 featured a southern storm that began in Oklahoma and made its track to the North Carolina Coast. By the time the snow ended on President’s Day (February 17, 2003), Reagan National was blasted with 26.8 inches, BWI Marshal accumulated 26.8 inches while Dulles had 21.7 inches. Schools already off on Monday enjoyed the rest of the week off for snow removal.

Car buried in snow near College Park, Md., after the Presidents' Day Blizzard of 2003. Photo courtesy of Andy Weiss.

So, we have escaped winter’s fury so far (Knock on wood for non-snow fans)…. and with 10 days left in Meteorological Winter (can’t forget Leap Day!) there is very little opportunity to come up with enough snow to push us back to average… 14.5 inches.