Boy have we been watching this possible Sunday snow for some time. Hard to believe here on Saturday afternoon with the temperature near 60° that snow by this time tomorrow is even possible. Here is where the storm is right now.
The track and how everything "phases" with this storm is critical for how much, if any snow we will see in the DC area. The very latest ensembles (see my old blog on forecasting with spaghetti) continue to show a very sharp north to south cutoff of snow and the track of the storm well to the south of Washington as shown here
Courtesy PSU Meteorology
The storm is now slower in moving east than we thought it would be 1 or 2 days ago so any snow won't come into the Dc area until Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. We are likely to wake up and see morning sunshine Sunday. The trend is still for the heavy moisture with this storm to stay to our south, while northeast winds will be bringing cold air into DC at the surface and 5000 feet over us.
That's always the challenge. How far north does the moisture come and how cold is the air over us. With cold air (even if the surface stays above 32°) over us any precipitation will be late Sunday is sure to be snow.
- Simulation of winds at 20,000 feet Sunday evening NWS/NCEP
The small yellow feature near us in this latest simulation of the winds about 20,000 feet does show some strong winds near DC and if this upper level wave tomorrow evening does come near us, it could enhance the snow for several hours and still give us 2" of wet snow in a short time.
Here is the latest snowfall map for the National Weather Service
Right now we are still thinking snow, late Sunday, into Sunday night will be light and this will not be a "Big One"
The snow, even light around DC, will continue after sunset so some roads will be slippery Sunday evening. The storm will be gone by late Sunday night and back to some strong February sun for President's Day holiday on Monday but there sure could be icy spots early.
Keep posted with Steve's latest forecast and the entire StormWatch7 team will keep on top of this still tricky storm right through Sunday night