From the ABC 7 Weather team

LIVE BLOG: D.C. Severe Weather Possible

July 26, 2012 - 08:45 PM
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A risk for severe weather has been issued for much of the D.C. region through Friday morning.

11:27PM: Eileen Whelan Even though the initial threat for severe weather is done before midnight, I think there could be another round to move into the area overnight (between about 3-6AM).  The radar image below shows the area of storminess we'll watch overnight, as it tracks East.  The big question is whether the storms will hold together.  Regardless, they do not look likely to be severe. 

Storm Scan as of 11:25PM

11:02PM: Eileen Whelan The threat for severe storms is done tonight.  A few showers/rumble of thunder are still possible, but overall, everything is quieting down.  Severe thunderstorm warnings have been canceled. 

10:34PM  Bob Ryan Once cell south Manassas moving toward Dale City.  That's about it.  Watch being gradually dropped west to east  with time

 10:07PM - Devon Lucie  The SEVERE T'STORM WARNING for Loudoun-Fauquier-Prince William COs has been cancelled as the thunderstorm drastically dropped in its intensity.  As per the SPC discussion below, I really think our severe threat is very slim now through tonight.

 

 

10:00PM - Devon Lucie First SEVERE WARNINGS have been issued for the D.C. Metro: Loudoun-Fauquier-Prinice William COs until 10:30PM.

 


 

 

9:26PM - Devon Lucie  The SPC has issued a new mesoscale discussion for our area.  My quick summary:  severe storms still possible, but likelihood of very strong winds and/or a widespread severe event is doubtful. 

Courtesy: NOAA/SPC

 

9:00PM - Devon Lucie  Storms have really slowed up over the Appalachians.  Take my earlier D.C. metro times and slow them down by an hour:  NW suburbs around 10PM - D.C. about 10:30-11PM - E suburbs around 11:30-midnight.  A lack of severe warnings too... good news.

8:45PM: Storms are starting to fire up north of Baltimore and another line of storms is stretching from Hagerstown and Southwest through Martinsburg.  These storms will generally track, very slowly, towards the East.  The greatest threat will be localized flooding and strong wind gusts.

Live Super Doppler as of 8:40PM

7:45pm update: - Devon Lucie  My latest storm tracks put strong/severe t'storms to the west/northwest suburbs by 9PM - D.C. proper by around 10PM - and the east suburbs (Prince Georges & Anne Arundel counties) by around 11PM.

6:05pm update: - Devon Lucie 
A SEVERE T'STORM WATCH has been issued for the entire region effective through 1AM Friday morning.  The main threats from these storms are possible damaging winds over 58mph, and hail.




 5:40 PM
Now a 45% Chance severe storms with damaging winds later this evening across northern Marylaqnd

 

5:30 pm Update - Bob Ryan Reports of tornado damage Elmira, NY and people trapped in cars.  Strong storms SW PA-eastern NYS but so far nothing developing DC area.  Record 7th 100° Day this July

4:45pm update:  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put the D.C. region under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather through Friday morning.  Already, a significant outbreak of severe weather is occurring in Pennsylvania and New York. 

It's the ABC7 weather department's thinking that our best chance for storms comes after midnight tonight.  There is a very slim chance that we might see storms fire up over the next few hours, but we feel that chance is very low.  The SPC has discussed the possibility of this storm development too.  Here's a glance of the graphic and part of their discussion from about 3pm EDT.  To sum up:  the risk of storm development is marginal in the D.C. region through the early evening hours.

Courtesy: NOAA/SPC

I think it's storms over Ohio at about the 4:45pm EDT hour that will have an impact on the D.C. re

 

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