From the ABC 7 Weather team

LIVE BLOG Hurricane Sandy Path: What to expect in D.C. area Tuesday

October 28, 2012 - 09:11 PM
Text size Decrease Increase

Hurricane Sandy will go in the history books for its meteorological uniqueness and the devastating impacts to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.

12:37pm: Here is the link to the latest Public Information Statement issued for the D.C. area by the Sterling NWS Office. It includes the latest snowfall totals (18.8" in Bayard, WV), rainfall totals (9.3" in Greenbelt, MD) and wind gusts (61 mph in the City of Fairfax). 

12:34pm: The National Weather Service has suffered a systems failure so currently you cannot access the local NWS pages.

11:42am: These pictures were taken by my Aunt Sandy (yea she's famous) and Uncle Jeff in Cape May, NJ. They had about 5 inches of water under their house last night but since then they have started to recede. The storm also knocked down their basketball hoop! They told me the water behind their house and on their street wasn't from surge but from the rain.

Cape May, NJ
Cape May, NJ
Cape May, NJ

11:29am: The remnant low of Sandy continues to spin through southern Pennsylvania, now located around 120 miles east of Pittsburgh.

12Z location of Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy

11:10am: Snow is really beginning to come down heavier at Wintergreen. Check out the rest of our live cameras here.

Snow continues to fall at Wintergreen Resort

10:51am: How awesome is this beautiful picture from the GOES Project of Hurricane Sandy transitioning over the eastern U.S.? Be sure to check out the assoicated movie of Sandy over the past few days here, really neat look at it.

Hurricane Sandy taken from the GOES 13 Satellite

10:16am: Here are a few more pictures of snow and some local wind damage. Lucky it was just some siding and nothing more. The snow picture is actually from Bakersville, NC and was sent to me by one of my meteorology classmates from N.C. State. Thanks Ashley!

Snow picture from Bakersville, NC
Siding off a house sent in from Michael Wright

9:01am: Rainfall Deficits...

Reagan National: As of Oct. 27th: -9.08"      As of the 29th: -5.31"

Dulles: As of Oct. 27th: -8.75"      As of the 29th: -4.32"

BWI Marshall: As of Oct. 27th: -7.84"      As of the 29th: -2.31"

Talk about a major way to crush the rainfall deficit across the D.C. area!

8:52am: I have no clue if this is real or photoshopped, but there is a report that someone saw a shark (looks like a small dogfish) swimming in their front yard in New Jersey. Figured I would let you all make your own opinions on this!

8:16am: Here are a couple of snow pictures from Keyser, WV and Oakland, MD. There has been reports of over a foot of snow in numerous locations along the mountains. Send your pictures to us! A big thanks to our old co-worker Alan Auglis who works for WHAG for the share!

Snow in Keyser, WV from Cookie Shackleford
Oakland, MD Snowfall from Barbara Michael

7:19am: Check out Cape May, NJ before Sandy came ashore yesterday evening.

7:09am: Waiting for the sun to come up so we can start seeing the images from our WeatherBug cameras across the region.

Rehoboth Beach

Wintergreen Resort

6:53am: Here's something just for fun. A look at the weather data from the Mount Washington Observatory at its summit in New Hamshire. Notice the 139.7 mph wind gust in the past 24 hours!

Mount Washington Observatory weather data

6:41am: Rain continues across the D.C. area with the heaviest showers in the immediate D.C. Metro dropping around a tenth of an inch of rain per hour. See Live Super Doppler 7 here

6:29am: Expect snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible through much of West Virginia and portions of southern Ohio as well per the Storm Prediciton Center's Mesoscale Discussion.

6:19am: Look at the snow as far south as Boone, NC in the mountains. Great live webcam here.

6:17am: The webcams at Wisp Ski Resort are comical as it appears you can see nothing but white on each cam!

6:13am: If Sandy wasn't odd enough for everyone so far, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be issued for parts of New England this morning including a chance for a few isolated tornadoes. Here is the latest mesoscale discussion which includes CT, RI, MA, NH, VT and ME.

6:02am: To access the 5am Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy advisory, click here.

5:39am: What a view of Sandy in this high resolution satellite loop from Monday. 

4:53am: Here's Fairfax County's interactive road closures map which shows A LOT of different roads closed throughout the county this morning. Be safe if you must go out!

4:47am: The only river gauge expected to reach the major floodstage is the Monocacy River as it's already at a moderate flood stage at 17.1 ft and is expected to rise to 21.5 ft by tomorrow morning.

Monocacy River Gauge

4:35am: Look at some of the record rainfall totals from across the area yesterday. Records were broken at each airport for Monday's totals.

Record Rainfall across the D.C. area Monday

4:23am: Check out some of the latest snowfall totals, wind gusts and rainfall totals in the region. All the graphics you could ask for!

Rain event totals from Sandy
Sandy strongest wind gusts
Snowfall so far with Sandy, more updates later this morning

4:13am: Find BGE Power Outages here

Pepco Power Outages here

4:00am: Check out the latest interactive power outage map from Dominion Power which shows around 119,000 customers without power in Northern Virginia. Below is a picture of the map. Click here to see it for yourself.

Northern Virginia power outages from Dominion Power

3:51 a.m. Per the New York Times, "The monster storm that has battered and drenched the coastline of the northeastern United States is likely to become less monstrous as it moves inland. Hurricanes and tropical storms generally lose strength once they move over land, and this storm should be no exception, said Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami." http://nyti.ms/StYP8r

3:38 a.m. Per the Baltimore Sun, "A day's worth of some excellent storm coverage by CNN was all but shredded during the Piers Morgan show Monday night when meteorologist Chad Myers reported that the New York Stock Exchange was under three feet of water and the hip-shooting host ran wild with the report that turned out to be false.http://bsun.md/TS5iNw 3:21 a.m. Per the Baltimore Sun, "Millions of gallons of raw sewage were overflowing into the Little Patuxent River in Howard County late Monday and early Tuesday morning after two separate electrical feeds were cut off at the Little Patuxent Water Reclamation Plant, according to county officials." http://bsun.md/TR8yCX  

 

2:53 a.m. Per the AP, "Much of New York was plunged into darkness Monday by a superstorm that overflowed the city's historic waterfront, flooded the financial district and subway tunnels and cut power to hundreds of thousands of people." http://apne.ws/WXf7KE  

2:00 AM @BobRyanABC7  Things settled down but look at integrated Doppler rain in the area.  most 4-10" Winds less and settling down Tuesday with left over showers and wet snow west

ZZZZZ

 

 

1:22AM: Winds are starting to diminish a little, especially South of the D.C. metro area.  Strongest wind gusts are around 45mph in the Northern parts of the viewing area, as the center of what was hurricane Sandy, moves over Harrisburg, PA. 

12:50AM:  Here's the latest storm timeline for overnight and through 4pm tomorrow.


11:49PM: The National Weather Service in Sterling, VA has issued a statement concerning the latest on Sandy.  Some areas are reporting rainfall from 8" - 12" and winds as high as 76mph!

11:05PM: The 11PM EDT update on Sandy from the National Hurricane Center - max sustained winds = 75mph, central pressure - 952 MB, moving northwest at 18mph.

Courtesy: National Hurricane Center - Miami

 10:36PM: This zoomed in map of outages in Northern Virginia gives a pretty good perspective on where the highest concentration of outages persist:

Courtesy: Dominion Power

10:11PM: Power outage update: Dominion reporting 126,089 in Northern Virginia are without power; Pepco is reporting 26,207 are without power. BGE is hit the hardest, with more than 198,000 without power.

9:20PM: Flood warnings in effect for many small streams and rivers across our area. Flooding will be a huge concern over the next several days with winds switching to the WSW Tuesday.  That will push rain water up the Potomac and up the Chesapeake Bay causing dangerous flood waters.


9:04PM: Still very windy outside, but I don't anticipate many more 60mph wind gusts.  Overnight wind gusts between 40 and 50mph and then winds speeds slowly diminishing throughout the day tomorrow.  


8:55PM: Very heavy rain pounding Centreville right along I-66 in Fairfax County!

WJLA.com

 8:32PM:  Rainfall totals continue to climb. The highest total I've seen from our WeatherBug network is at the U.S. Naval Academy where this is just about 8inches of rain!  Rainfall totals range from 3-8inches across the region. Rainbands still moving through, but I think the heaviest rain tapering off after midnight.  Flooding will be the biggest concern moving on, as well as more power outages with heavy trees and saturated ground.


 7:47PM: There are 75,836 without power in Northern Virginia. Check here for all power outage updates.

7:20PM: The National Hurricane Center has officially deemed Sandy a post-tropical storm.  Translation: Sandy is no longer classified as a hurricane, it's an extremely strong rain storm!

Courtesy: National Hurricane Center - Miami

6:29PM:  Expect some of the heaviest bands of rain and wind over the next few hours in our area.  Here's our latest timeline.  The ground already heavily saturated, so flooding a major concern, as well as more power outages.


6:20 PM: Sandy has made landfall, according to various news sources.

5:35PM: Here is a big list of wind gusts and rainfall totals across the D.C. area. 

5:15PM: 2nd report of 70mph wind gusts in Montgomery County:

Courtesy: NWS Baltimore-Washington

5:03PM: The latest advisory for Sandy as of 5pm has the storm 30 miles East Southeast of Cape May, NJ with winds of 90mph moving west northwest at 28 mph. The pressure is 940mb.

5pm Hurricane Sandy Forecast Track

5:00PM: First report of 70mph winds in Southern Maryland!  

Courtesy: NWS Baltimore-Washington

4:40PM: Meteorologist Devon Lucie here.  Some of the latest wind gust reports from our Weatherbug Network:

Peak Wind Gusts: Weatherbug
Peak Wind Gusts: Weatherbug

4:23PM: Here are some of the latest local storm reports from NWS Sterling.

4:18PM: Recent picture of a tree down in the Franklin Farm neighborhood in Oakton. There has also been reports of power outages in other parts of Fairfax County such as Clifton and Centreville.

Tree down in Franklin Farm from Chris Bevington

4:00PM: Here is a picture of the snow falling in Garrett County, MD from Barbara Michael.

Snow in Garrett County

3:58PM: Some of the current weatherbug observations show 4 inches of rain in Germantown, MD, 3.5 in Laurel, a 50 mph wind gust at WTOP Radio and a 59 mph wind gust at Rehoboth Beach, DE.

3:44PM: The situation for some snow mixing in tomorrow morning seems like it would be most likely south and west of the city. Since this is a warm-core system (even with it transitioning to extra-tropical) it will be a little warmer aloft closer to the center of the low. Here is the forecast for 12Z Tuesday morning as far as 850mb temperatures. Temperatures will be below normal aloft as the cooler air makes it around and south of the low.

12Z NAM Forecast for tomorrow moring, (850mb temperatures, heights and wind)

3:33PM: Does the region have a chance for a wintry mix tomorrow morning? Some models say yes, others say no. Currently, the NAM and European Models bring the chance for a few wet snowflakes across the the region tomorrow morning as cooler air is brought around the back side of the low.

Here is a look at the NAM Bufkit at 9am tomorrow morning. It clearly shows temperatures near freezing aloft and the P-Type nomagram shows the wet snowfall possibility. The GFS model does not bring in the same cold air, but even if it snows, the most to expect would be an isolated slick spot or dusting, particularly closer to the mountains.

12Z NAM forecast for tomorrow morning

3:04PM: A Blizzard Warning has now been issued east of the West Virginia mountains and extends into the Shenandoah Valley and Blue Ridge for areas above 2000ft. Snow should be heaviest this afternoon and evening and may accumulate 6-12 inches at 2000ft and above.

Latest Winter Watches and Warnings

2:40PM: Adam Caskey just found a great timelapse from Shenandoah National Park at the Big Meadows Byrd Visitor Center. This is just over 3500 feet and some heavy, wet snow is falling!

2:35: From Bob Ryan  Latest storm surge graphic from NOAA  Sandy accelerating and hits New Jersey coast 5-7PM with record storm surge in some areas.  We stay on south side strongest winds and more bands of heavy rain yet to come

2:27PM: Current wind gusts across the region.

Stevensville, MD: 59 mph      Glen Burnie, MD: 54 mph

Rehoboth Beach, DE: 53 mph      Ocean City, MD: 53 mph 

2:25PM: River Bend Golf and Country Club in Great Falls, VA shows just how much rain has fallen across the region with the fairways covered in water. Weather Camera Here 

2:13PM: Hurricane Sandy's forecast track as of 2pm. The latest advisory shows Sandy at 90mph now moving northwest at 28 mph! On this current track and speed, the storm should make landfall somewhere around Atlantic City, NJ around 5pm this evening.

Hurricane Sandy 2pm Forecast Track

2:04PM:  2PM NHC update on Sandy - Still a very strong and massive storm system and it is rapidly moving towards the NW now at 28mph!  Winds are still near 90 mph and the central pressure is 940mb.  Currently, Sandy is located 110mi. SE of Atlantic City and 175mi. SSE of NYC.  Sandy will make landfall sometime this evening.  It looks like landfall will fall between Cape May and Atlantic City, New Jersey.


1:28PM: Here is the latest wind probabilities and wind field graphics.

Sandy Tropical Wind Probabilities
Hurricane Sandy 11am Wind Field

12:30PM: As far as winds are concerned, the 12PM numbers show sustained winds around 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph which is about a 5 mph increase over the past two hours. At this point, we are expecting 50 mph winds later this afternoon and closer to 60 mph winds later this evening as the storm makes landfall around the New Jersey coastline.

12:28PM: A flood warning is now in effect until 8:30pm for the District, Anne Arundel, Howard, Montgomery, Prince Georges and Carroll Counties. Two to three inches of rain has fallen through the majority of those areas and will continue to fall through the rest of the day. Rock Creek is already at the flood action stage of 6 feet and major flooding is possible along Rock Creek later today and tonight.

12:24PM: A look at where Sandy may be at 7PM this evening.  Coming ashore in central-south NJ.  The dark red indicates winds 50mph in the DC area and purple winds 70 mph+ along Jersey shore, LI and NYC area

ZZZZZ

 

11:28AM: As far as flooding is concerned, the area could see some near record river crests through Wednesday. The Monocacy River near Frederick is forecast to crest just under 32 feet. At 30 feet, water reaches the second floor of Gambrill Mill on the Monocacy National Battlefield. This crest would compare to Hurricane Eloise in 1975 and would be the second highest crest on record.

The Potomac River at Paw Paw is expected to crest near 31 feet by early Wednesday morning. This crest would be the worst since 1996, and be similar to the Flood of April 1993.

11:05AM  Bob Ryan here Look at the NOAA storm surge projection as Sandy continues to grow stronger and comes ashore this evening along the New Jersey Coast storm surge 5 feet+ along coast and higher in areas of NYC and Long Island.  Worst time at high tide (8:53 PM today) Water rise could exceed 10 feet

ZZZZZ

10:47AM: The latest Hurricane Sandy update shows the storm now with 90mph winds moving NNW at 18mph. It appears like it will make landfall in southern portions of New Jersey later this evening.

Hurricane Sandy track update as of 11am

10:34AM: Here is a good look at Hurricane Sandy as she begins to jog to the west on Satellite.

Latest Satellite image of Hurricane Sandy

10:16AM: Here are some of the latest hurricane graphics which will be updated at 11am. I wanted to show you the current wind field first.

Hurricane Sandy's wind field as of 5am

Here is the current Tropical Storm Forced wind probabilities map from the National Hurricane Center. Note that the D.C. area is in the 90% to 100% shading.

Tropical Storm Forced Wind Probabilities

Finally, here is the latest forecast precipitation from the storm which shows more than 6 inches of rain possible for the majority of the D.C. area.

Days 1-3 forecast precipitation from HPC

9:57AM: Check out some of the weather cameras at the beaches.

Rehoboth Beach Weathbug Camera (Also here)

Ocean City Surf Camera OCsurfcam.com

Swellinfo.com Ocean City, MD surf camera (may or may not be working)

9:53AM: Here's a picture from last night of Sandy from NASA Goddard Pix Flickr account.

Hurricane Sandy at night

9:48AM: Check out this live camera in Ocean City at 8th St. and the boardwalk at Malibu's Surf Shop. Crazy seas out there potentially 10 to 15 foot waves.

9:21AM: Thomas Point has measured a gust of 42 mph so far. The wind will gradually increase with gusts closer to 65-75 mph at Thomas Point tonight and early Tuesday. 

9:08AM: Another band of heavy rain is moving east to west from Annapolis into the D.C. metro area.

8:55AM: Buoy about 20 miles east of Bethany Beach, DE is measuring waved heights of 19 ft. 

8:25AM: Wave heights are estimated around 40 ft in the strongest part of the storm on it's northeast side between New York and Bermuda. Estimated wave heights:  



Estimated Wave Heights

8:11AM: Rainfall totals are slowly rising with Ocean City at over four and a half inches thus far from Sandy.  Here are other rainfall totals so far, but keep in mind that these numbers are changing by the minute. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

7:55AM: Heavy rain continues to slowly move across the Bay, onto the western shore and into the metro area. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour can be expected this morning and into the early afternoon in parts of the abc7 viewing area.

 


Doppler Radar Estimated Rain Rates

7AM: Heavier rain is overspreading the metro area from the east to the west.  The rain should be the heaviest today from about 10am through 8pm.  The wind will gradually increase throughout the day and peak tonight and early Tuesday morning.  Expect wind gusts of 60-70 mph at the storm's peak Monday night and Tuesday morning.  Here's a timeline of what to expect today:

 



Caption

 

1:10AM:  Everything remains consistent with earlier forecasts and warnings.  Sandy has begun a turn to the north and by Monday afternoon will be heading almost 90º to the New Jersey coast.  Here is a late hi resolution simulation form the meteorology department at Penn State showing the winds 60 mph+ Long Island to NJ and 30-40 mph around DC.  The heaviest rain will continue to move in as the day progresses and the "worst" will be late tomorrow through Monday night.  As the soil gets saturated with 4-8"+ rain and winds 30-40 mph continue the risk of power outages continues.  The areas that will get hit the hardest are still along the NJ shore to NYC and southern New England.

ZZZZZ

 

 

11:41pm:  Light rain in D.C. and that's all there's been, so far.  The heaviest rain bands have been on the Eastern Shore of Maryland and Southern Maryland around Saint Marys' and Calvert counties.  I think (Eileen) the heaviest rain in D.C. will begin around 7am tomorrow morning and the heavy rain will continue through about 8pm.  Monday will be the worst rain with combination of rain and wind.

Live Super Doppler

11:23pm:  No big change from the NHC with the 11pm update.  Still Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds 75mph and central pressure 950mb.  Track still takes Sandy onto the Southern Jersey shore late tomorrow.  Rain and wind ramping up overnight, but the heaviest rain will occur early Monday morning through Monday night.

NHC

10:10pm:  Hurricane Sandy remains a Category 1 hurricane and is still moving towards the NE off the coast of North Carolina.  Take a look at all the active watches and warnings across the D.C. metro area.  Notice the high wind warnings (mustard color) across the entire viewing area, hurricane force wind warning for the Chesapeake Bay, and blizzard warnings along the mountains.

National Weather Service - Sterling

Record rain and strong winds, sustained for over 36 hours, is the main concern.  Power outages and flooding will be likely.  Rainfall totals, by Wednesday, could range between 5 and 9 inches in the D.C. area, with locally higher amounts in towards the Bay and on the Eastern Shore of Maryland.   Here is the latest predicted rainfall from the HPC

HPC

Hurricane Sandy will go in the history books for its meteorological uniqueness and the devastating impacts to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.  The StormWatch7 Weather Team will have the latest updates on our weather homepage and through our personal facebook and twitter accounts.  These are the people to follow for the latest weather updates and local D.C. impacts from Sandy.  

Bob Ryan;  Doug HillJacqui JerasSteve RudinAdam Caskey;  Brian van de GraaffDevon LucieAlex Liggitt;  Eileen Whelan 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Read More:
Short URL: http://wj.la/Rra4wU
comments powered by Disqus