Boy this is the time of the year when almost every meteorologist and plenty of non-meteorologist has an outlook for the coming winter. A great overview and many outlooks from The Capital Weather Gang. I've been looking at the recent extremes and will tell you Monday what I think this might mean for our coming winter. A hint - no big disagreement from Doug's outlook he gave this week. But just today NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updated and "tweeked" the outlook for December-February (meteorological winter) a bit. Here it is.
With the ENSO pattern now neutral and some suggestion of a negative NAO (cold) the outlook is still 50/50 (equal chances above below average temperature) over us, but favors a cold pattern now in the northern plains and Florida. But don't worry, sure no snow in Miami. One of the winter "signals" that has been getting more attention in recent years, and has shown some skill, is the correlation of snow cover in Siberia autumn and winter patterns in the eastern U.S. What is interesting this year is the recent rapid and large increase of snow over across Canada and Eurasia.
A hint of a cold snowy winter for the DC area? Not going to get any guarantee from me and after 16 months in a row with the temperature above average, October's temperature was a bit below average across the U.S. and right now November is much colder than average in the east. So some will say, "We're due for a cold pattern". We do seem "due" so snow lovers keep your fingers crossed. More coming Monday