After temperatures of 70 degrees and record rainfall, big changes are occurring. Snow has returned to the forecast. The majority of the models depict light snow showers for the region tomorrow morning.
The cold front has passed through the region and flooding is still an issue, but the winds have diminished through much of the area and temperatures will return to their winter-like state tonight. Low temperatures will fall back into the 20s to lower 30s across the area and clouds will be on the increase after midnight ahead of the next disturbance. Unfortunately, this system may make morning travel a little tricky if a a few moderate snow bands set up.
- 500mb Vorticity Plot for tomorrow morning
Above is the 500mb vorticity plot for tomorrow morning prior to sunrise. There appears to be some reasonable energy with this system, though it doesn't have much associated moisture. This would lead me to believe there wouldn't be much more than flurries or some moderate snow showers. The problem is the timing.
Timing: The areas of light snow will be possible tomorrow morning after midnight starting just prior to the morning commute. This would be bad with the salt now off the roadways from yesterdays heavy rain. The most likely timeframe would be between 4am and 9am. If a heavier rouge snow band sets up somewhere in the region, there may be a few isolated slick spots, just in time for the morning commute. I figured I would try to place that thought in your head before you drive to work tomorrow morning.
Here is a model forecast for tomorrow morning at 5am from the 12Z 4km NAM model. It does depict a few snow showers within the area tomorrow morning prior to sunrise. Though accumulations should be light, you know it only takes a few slick spots to make for a horrendous morning commute in the D.C. area.
As far as confidence is concerned, the majority of the models depict light snow showers for the region tomorrow morning. As far as totals, most keep snowfall around a half of an inch or less, so we shouldn't be dealing with much. The remainder of the day Friday should remain partly sunny, windy and cold with highs in the 30s and winds out of the northwest around 20 mph leading to chills in the teens and 20s. What a difference two days makes.