Snow is back in the forecast twice this week, which seems like something big, but both systems may only drop flurries to a dusting across the region. Friday's system is looking less and less organized at this point as it heads east into the D.C. area.
So what has changed in the forecast? One of the things we were watching was the forecast track of the system. As of Wednesday morning, the track shifted to the south of D.C. This would allow all precipitation to be in the form of all snow, but would also bring the heaviest areas of precipitation south of D.C. In Friday's case, the heaviest precipitation appears like it will fall in southern Virginia closer to the North Carolina border. This would leave the D.C. area with little (if any) snow as the system skirts by the southern portions of the region. As you can see in the graphic below, we're still waiting for that first inch of snow! We're a little behind...
- Average first snows at Reagan National
How much snow are we expecting for the D.C. area? With the current guidance, we would be hard pressed to say that we would get more than a dusting. The highest chance for light snow will be south of D.C. closer to Fredericksburg and Southern Maryland. Farther south along the I-95 corridor, there may be a few inches of snow by Friday night.
As far as timing the system, any snow should begin in the afternoon hours and continue through the evening commute before coming to an end Friday night. This will be bad timing as it will coincide with the commute home. There may be a few slick spots as temperatures will remain below freezing and anything that does fall may stick.