10:30 PM update: More snow reports coming in and latest trends now favoring more snow earlier in metro area. Will have new timeline posted soon and upping the snow totals for AM rush and noon. Major snow storm for D.C. area 6-12" likely closer to D.C.
9:45 update: First reports of snow and rain to the south of D.C. all late information continues to support a major snow storm in the region. No significant changes to our earlier timing and total snow fall.
Tuesday's temperatures of 50° and higher and road temperatures in the 60s that everything still points to heavy wet snow to hit us late Tuesday and Wednesday.
The National Weather Service has much of metro area in a winter storm warning..
The storm track, winds and temperatures at the ground and in the air above us are critical to determining what will happen. Here is a look at a tonights very late simulation of the storm tomorrow afternoon.
- I've drawn in where the center is which is near lower Chesapeake Bay.
Winds from the east are likely to keep a rain/snow mix right along the Interstate 95 corridor until about midday Wednesday as the storm moves east, becomes stronger and drawing in cold air from strong north to northeast winds.
Look at the likely wind field in the mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon.
This will be a serious storm and, unfortunately, include very strong winds with beach erosion in the shore areas of New Jersey devestated by Sandy.
Here is our latest thinking on how much snow will be on the ground for the morning rush, noon and by the evening rush.
The storm won't really wind down until Wednesday night, and here is what to expect to see and shovel by Thursday morning.
The greatest threat is this will be a heavy wet snow with high winds, meaning likely power outages and very wet slippery driving.
Also, take your time shoveling. Wet snow will be very heavy and slow shoveling is more healthy than trying to do everything at once. Schools will likely be closed. Travel disruptions will definitely occur. We will keep you posted.