You may have heard, "A winter storm will bear down on the East Coast 5 days from now, bringing heavy, wet snow and gusty winds with up to 6 to 12 inches possible by the time it ends Thursday."
This same statement could have been said numerous times this winter, as plenty of opportunities graced the region this far out, but you can tell by the snow we've received so far how many of these scenarios panned out. The past two winters resulted in a whopping 3.5 inches of snow, from the potential of well over 100 inches in the 5 day or more forecast period.
(I wish I had actual facts to back this up, just an observation)
- GFS forecast for Saturday afternoon with the energy for this storm still over the Pacific
The energy we are talking about that will eventually have the chance to create this storm is still located over the Pacific. It will cross the Rockies by Monday and get to the Mississippi River by Tuesday. The question remains whether or not the trough will amplify over the East Coast, helping steer this system and its energy back over the D.C. area.
Over the past few days, a few models didn't show this and the storm tracked south of D.C. This is just the normal variability you would see in forecasts this far out in time.
Above is a look at the GFS spaghetti plot model consensus forecast, showing where the models think the 1004mb low would be on Friday. There's not much of a consensus just yet, with the low existing anywhere from off the Carolina coastline, to the Atlantic, to right over D.C.
This is something we showed on our Facebook page earlier today, and it got a few good responses.
Those two comments were either not buying into the hype just yet or hoping for spring. Other comments have been posted, however, asking for some snow since we didn't get any in meteorological winter.
For now, this is pretty much what it is; a hope or a discussion about the potential for a storm. We do believe there will be a system that will affect the D.C. area for the middle of next week, but for now, it's just too early to tell you exactly what to expect.
There will be plenty more to come on this during the weekend and early next week.