From the ABC 7 Weather team

D.C. Severe Threat Wednesday and Thursday

June 11, 2013 - 11:10 PM
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Another round of violent storms is possible late Wednesday and Thursday.

After strong storms ripped through the area on Monday, 3 tornadoes confirmed, another round of severe weather is possible Wednesday and Thursday.

The Storm Predicition Center has the the D.C. area under a Slight risk for severe storms both days.  What does this mean?  There is an elevated risk (15%) for damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes.  The areas shaded in red, in the Ohio Valley, are under a moderate risk for severe weather Wednesday, which means probabilities for severe are between 30% and 45%. 

Storm Prediction Center

By Thursday, D.C. remains under a Slight risk for severe storms, as a weather system strengthens and pushes East.  This is the convective outlook for Thursday.

Storm Prediction Center

Atmospherically, a surface and upper level frontal system will track along the north central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley Wednesday.  With very high heat and humidity, coupled with strong winds aloft, the potential exists for a severe weather outbreak. 

Even though strong thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday around the DC metro, the higher probability of severe weather arrives Thursday with more atmospheric dynamics at play.  Take a look at the 500mb vorticity on Thursday afternoon. 

The pink/white colors indicate high speed and directional shear, as an area of low pressure rapidly deepens and develops over northeast Maryland and Pennsylvania.  Here's another view of the setup at different levels of the atmosphere on Thursday afternoon.  Notice the precipitation field in the top right corner, as well as surface wind speed on the bottom left corner.

I highlight Thursday, as I think the dynamics are more inclined to enhance the severe weather threat in the D.C. area.  There will be plenty of heat and humidity on Wednesday for strong and potentially severe thunderstorms to fire up.  The forcing will be more prevalent on Thursday, but on both days it will be critical to monitor the changing weather situation. 

Stay updated on our weather homepage, as well as on ABC7 News and News Channel 8.  LIKE the Stormwatch7 weather page on FB too for additional updates.

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