From the ABC 7 Weather team

Early Atlantic tropical developments?

June 3, 2013 - 07:44 PM
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Hurricane season has begun and the first sign of tropical weather in the Atlantic is starting to take shape.


The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on Saturday, June 1st.   Even though there are no active storms... yet, there is the potential for a developing tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico. 

As of the 8pm update from the National Hurricane Center, there is a 30% chance of tropical development from a weak area of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.  If this area of storms develops tropical characteristics, the first Atlantic storm name is Andrea (pronounced AN-dree-uh).


There are no signs pointing to a strong tropical system; however, there is the possibility for this current area of low pressure to become better organized as it slowly tracks to the northeast.  Take a look at one computer simulation Thursday afternoon.

Notice the 1003mb low over the Gulf of Mexico with heavy rain just off the northwest coast of Florida.  Speaking of heavy rain check out the precipitation forecast through Saturday night.  This particular NOAA product can sometimes being a little on the high side, but it gives you an overall idea of the wet pattern expected for Florida and the eastern Carolina's over a 5 day period. 


Weather Prediction Center

The track of the wave of low pressure, currently over the south-central Gulf, may move northeast over the coming days.  What does that mean for D.C.?  Well, it doesn't look like we have to worry about any major tropical storms; however, the weather pattern bears watching.  It could certainly mean a wet end to the work week and first half of the weekend.  Here's another simulation of the weather pattern by Saturday afternoon.

The area of low pressure, in this particular model run (18z GFS) has the low off the mid-Atlantic coast, but still could provide shower and thunderstorm chances through Saturday. 

This is all a preliminary forecast being about 4 days out, but it's still important to analyze and track.  As always, we'll continue to update you with the latest tropical developments.


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