There have been four named storms so far this hurricane season, but even with the recent quiet stretch, NOAA continues to predict an above-normal season.
Two days ago, the USA Today reported that so far this has been a "snoozer of a hurricane season". Despite the fact we are just now approaching the peak of the hurricane season, apparently some sources are already begin to write it off as a quiet year. NOAA doesn't agree with that sentiment apparently, as in their latest tropical update, they continue to predict an above-normal season.
Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had this to say, "“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized. Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”
The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Above-normal sea-surface temperatures and a stronger than normal rainy season across Africa are two reasons for the continued high outlook.
The new outlook is above, which is slightly less than the original outlook in May which called for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.