Hopefully the shutdown doesn't go on as long as this dry period. It hasn't rained now for 11 days.
Over the past four months, Reagan National is down over 4 inches of precipitation compared to what the area typically receives during the period. This is true for the other area observation stations as well. We are trying to find a break in the dry pattern but it's been really tough in the past few weeks.
This week has been no different. Not only is it dry, but also much warmer than normal. Temperatures are running nearly 10 degrees above average and will continue to do so through the weekend.
- GFS 12Z Model Forecast for Saturday morning
Taking a look at the forecast this weekend, a potent area of low pressure will affect the midwest and upper plains, possibly bringing the chance for some wet snowflakes to areas such as the Dakotas. This system will move into Canada, but the associated cold front will continue to push eastward into the D.C. area by Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Alright Alex, it's been 3 paragraphs and no mention of a tropical system, what are you trying to sell me here? I'm glad you asked. Tropical Storm Karen has now formed and if forecast to become a weak Cat. 1 hurricane before landfall.
This would give the potential for some tropical rain around our area by early next week, which we would gladly take. Let me remind you that confidence in this is rather low at this point and as usual, minor changes in the next day or so will drastically change the forecast for next week.