Heavy rain will be possible through tonight into Wednesday morning. A brief change to snow is possible Wednesday afternoon along with gusty winds and cold temperatures.
At this point we think the worst of the system will move through tonight as the area of low pressure begins to move up the coast. We have already seen Tornado Warnings in the Florida Panhandle which is helping give an idea just how strong this system is gearing up to be.
- HRRR Forecast Precipitation by Wednesday afternoon (Courtesy: WeatherBell Models)
As we head through the afternoon and evening, rain will continue to fall across the region yet will wait to pick up in intensity until closer to sunset.
There is the chance for 2 inches of rain or more overnight into Wednesday morning as the low moves into the region. The model shown above even brings the chance for closer to 3 inches in isolated spots across the area.
This could lead to some flooding issues but they should be limited since conditions for the month have been so dry.
Small streams and creeks may have some flooding issues but the bigger problem may be limited to ponding on the roadways.
- Day 1-2 QPF from the Weather Prediction Center
Up & Down: WRF 4km has temps jumping to 50°F+ in DC for a few hours late Tues & early Wed -- then back to 30s pic.twitter.com/AN5vH0UcIg— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) November 26, 2013
The tweet above gives a look at the 4km NAM model, which shows the potential for temperatures to really jump during the overnight hours as the low moves over the region.
Warmest temperatures will be east of the low and parts of the Eastern Shore and even Southern Maryland could reach the 60 degree mark overnight (See image below). Areas west of the Metro are expected to hang in the 30s and 40s.
- HRRR Temperature forecast for midnight (Courtesy: WeatherBell Models)
The low will pass by the region overnight and intensify over the Northeast Wednesday. Winds will change from easterly to northwesterly tomorrow and become very gusty through the afternoon and evening.
Winds appear to be the strongest tomorrow with gusts possibly to 45 mph at times. The highest winds should be in higher elevations northwest of D.C. Below is a look at the 850mb winds and temperatures. The winds may be up to 50 knots at that height which could translate down to the surface giving the higher wind gusts.
- 850mb Winds and Temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning
Snow will also be possible as the low moves north of D.C. Cold air will filter in as the winds shift and precipitation should change to snow across the area by tomorrow afternoon.
There is the possibility for some light accumulations throughout the area but they will be very limited in the D.C. Metro because of the wet and warm surface temperatures. Regardless, it will still have the potential to impact travel.
Again, if it snows tomorrow, be especially careful on bridges and overpasses if you happen to be traveling at the time. Light accumulations may be possible in the higher elevations north and west of D.C. Below is a look at total accumulated snowfall from the 12Z ECMWF model, but that doesn't take into account the wet and warm ground which would surely help melt much of the snow on impact.
- Snow accumulation forecast from the ECMWF by early Thursday morning (Courtesy: WeatherBell Models)
Winds will continue to be breezy through Thanksgiving morning but high pressure will move overhead by the afternoon allowing winds to subside. Temperatures look cold Thanksgiving Day with highs in the mid to upper 30s and again on Black Friday with highs again only in the upper 30s.
It's hard to think this November may go into the books with 4 days with high temperatures in the 30s. Ian Livingston, a colleague and writer for the Capital Weather Gang found that the two day span Sunday and Monday with high temperatures in the 30s hasn't occurred in the month of November since 2000 and the average of the two day span was the coldest in a row in November since 1970!
Guess we'll have to wait and see what the actual Winter brings!