Elevated Flood Risk and a few strong afternoon/evening storms possible.
- This Afternoon:
- Showers and Thunderstorms
- Highs: Around 70
- Precipitation: 100%
- Showers and Storms
- Lows: Around 60
- Wind: SE 10-15+
- A.M. Showers, then becoming Partial Clearing
- Highs: Mid-Upper 70s
- Wind: Becoming Northwest 5-10
The greatest weather concern across the region today is the threat of flooding; both urban and river flooding are expected. This link is a great tool to check individual river stages and forecasts where you live. A steady stream of moisture will keep us wet today with some "training" of storms. That means heavy rain will move over the same area, elevating the risk of flooding. The frontal boundary near the Southern Virginia/North Carolina state line will advance northward today and just how far north is goes will have a huge impact on our conditions. At this time, our best estimate is that it will slowly reach the Mason-Dixon line later today. If that happens, it increases our risk of severe weather and some storms could bring damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. We are in the "slight" risk category issued by the Storm Prediction Center. However, if the wedge of cooler air that is now trapped up to the Appalachian mountains doesn't break and the front stays south, our risk is lower and temperatures won't meet the forecast high of 70 degrees. Either way, we will unquestionably have heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms as tropical moisture overrides the boundary and pumps into the Mid-Atlantic. The cold front associated with the system will finally move through Thursday, and after a few showers early, partial clearing should take place in the afternoon. Friday looks good with dry conditions and partly Cloudy skies and highs near 70.