From the ABC 7 Weather team

Tropical system may impact the D.C. area for the 4th of July

June 30, 2014 - 11:37 AM
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A disturbance off the coast of Florida is being monitored for tropical development over the next few days.

All interests in the Mid Atlantic and East Coast are turning to the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Florida, as a weak area of low pressure continues to sit over the area. Conditions aren't expected to be conducive to tropical development with wind shear hampering development, but there are already reports of tropical storm forced winds in the system.

Visible satellite image of the disturbance

Above is a look at the system, which has very little thunderstorm activity at the moment. Much of the storm activity is situated south and east of the center of circulation, which is very poorly defined at the moment. An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is on the way to investigate the system for the next few hours.

Model track guidance depicting the system to move north the rest of the week

Model guidance is depicting this system to drift southward a bit today before moving north along the east coast through the week. The timing brings the possibility of the system to the Mid Atlantic region by Friday morning and out of the area by Friday night.

Model intensity guidance depicting possibility of a Tropical Storm

Intensity forecasts depict the potential for a Tropical Storm by Wednesday or Thursday. This would make for a poor 12 to 24 hours if you are at the Outer Banks, Virginia Beach or north to the Delmarva and Jersey Shore.

While the track forecast doesn't directly impact D.C., the combination of a possible tropical storm along with the interaction of a frontal boundary and approaching region of high pressure from the northwest would result in clouds, the chance for rain as well as breezy winds.

QPF through Saturday morning

The heaviest rain should be limited to the coastlines. Sorry beach-goers. Gusty winds will also be possible along the coasts, though confidence is still rather low.

Your best bet as of now will be to monitor the latest forecasts through the week. We will be sure to keep you updated with the latest information

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