Tropical Storm Cristobal has formed over the Turks and Caicos.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating a disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas determined that the system has become organized enough with a well-defined circulation to be classified Saturday night and as of Sunday Cristobal becomes our third tropical storm of the season.
- Enhanced Satellite Loop
Latest models continue to have it slowly meander north/northwest bringing torrential rains and gusty winds to the Turks and Caicos as well as the Bahamas through the weekend. After the weekend it would appear that the storm should make more of a shift to the north/northeast but running parallel to the coast of the US. Here is the official track from the National Hurricane Center as of Saturday night.
- Official National Hurricane Center Track
The bulk of the models keep the storm out to sea which would make for rough surf and increase threat of rip currents. As you can see from the latest spaghetti plot (all models plotted together) a few outlier models want to bring the storm to the US, so we will need to watch this carefully over the coming days - the track it takes and the intensity it attains.
- Spaghetti Plots courtesy sfwm.com
Anyone with interests along the Eastern Seaboard, Florida and even the Gulf Coast should pay close attention to updates into early next week. It is not out of the question that it could shift closer to the US if not directly impact it.