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Friday November 09, 2007 at 3:01 pm
A Glance into the Crystal Ball...
posted by Alex Liggitt


Taking a look at some northern hemisphere 500mb plots, we can see that there are just about 3 to 4 planetary waves that control the overall pattern.  These waves are seperated by areas of high and low pressure, or ridges and troughs.  Our region is currently under a trough, which will transition to a ridge by early next week.  Higher temperatures are expected to move back into the region early next week, as this area of high pressure moves to our east and we experience southerly flow aloft. 

These moderate temperatures will come to an end with another cold frontal passage during the middle of next week, which also looks to help alleviate drought conditions a bit more.  Another prolonged period of below normal temperatures is expected from about the 15th to the 19th with highs only hanging in the mid 50s.

Around this same time period, an area of low pressure looks to move into the Pacific Northwest, cross over the Rockies, and create a monster lee-side trough over the Plains.  A 1040mb (strong) high pressure system follows this system and it looks to strengthen even more into a 1052mb high pressure system.  This could bring the one heck of an Arctic outbreak to the Central Plains as well as the Midwest, and could also be accompanied by some very heavy snowfalls.

What does all of this mean for us you ask?  Well though not very reliable when forecasting far into the future, this early cold air outbreak could have big affects on our weather.  There would be the rain that falls during the week of Thanksgiving that could continue to help us out of the drought (somewhat).  But if it were really to occur this early, then we could be in for some early snowstorms as well this year.  Looking 384hrs out on the GFS Model, which all meteorologists know absolutely will not happen, and all freshman meteorology majors lie their hopes, there does lurk a bit of a system right off the east coast, in the form of a coastal low.  Could it be the next big east coast snowstorm?

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