From the ABC 7 Weather team

Archive for category D.C.-centric November 2014

Warming Up on Monday but Uncertainty Comes Mid-Next Week

November 21, 2014 - 02:33 PM
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Get ready for a warm up-and I believe that is something we can all latch on to given the bitterly cold air more normal for January that moved into our area of the last week. However, after some evening rain on Sunday, we will warm up nicely on Monday – into the lower 70s in some spots!

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Caption: Temperatures warm to around 70 degrees on Monday

However, a cold front will sweep on through on Monday night into Tuesday morning and that will gradually bring an end to our mini warm up. Tuesday should be a fairly quiet day as temperatures will still top out in the mid to upper 50s with sunshine however, as we head into Wednesday, we could see some changes.
Since this is several days away, the forecast confidence is low for mid next week but given it is one of the busiest travel days of the year, I want to go ahead and tell you what we’re looking it. Temperatures will continue to fall below normal on Wednesday and Thursday (Thanksgiving)-most likely topping out in the mid to upper 40s.
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The frontal system that passes through the area on Tuesday morning will stall out off the eastern seaboard. The models are hinting at an area of low pressure forming along the stalled frontal boundary and moving north along it. The question will remain: how close to the coast can that area of low pressure get? If we see a shift westward, then we could have some rain/snow along the eastern seaboard on Wednesday (D.C. area included). However, if it keeps veering out to sea, there is a good chance of not seeing anything expect a dry day here. Obviously this will be something we continue to watch as we head into next week.

As far as the rest of the U.S. is concerned for travel, there are no major storms across the region mid-next week. There could be a clipper system that dives southeast out of northwestern Canada that could bring some light snow showers to the Great Lakes region and Upper Plains (this could include any Chicago airports) – however, any snow associated with that looks to be light.

Until then, just enjoy the weekend and we’ll keep an eye on the weather!

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Chilly Rain Monday Then Bitter Blast Tuesday

November 16, 2014 - 04:47 PM
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Grab the umbrella and rain coat Monday morning and allow for some extra time for the AM commute.  Rain, and even some sleet, started falling Sunday evening and rain will continue, on and off, through late Monday afternoon.  Even though there were reports of sleet at the onset of precipitation, temperatures will remain above freezing for the duration of the wet weather, so it will be an all rain event.

Here's a radar simulation at 7 AM Monday.  Notice the wide shield of rain overhead.  Expect extra delays for the morning rush, so be prepared.

The rain is coming from an area of low pressure currently over the deep south.  This low will track northeastward overnight and tomorrow bringing ample moisture.  Between .75-1.00" of rain is expected.  Here's a larger view of our weather story.

The bulk of the moisture should be out of the region by the evening commute.  Winds will begin to shift out of the NW drawing in another very cold airmass.  Temperatures will tumble quickly Monday night into the lower 30s.  The gusty winds should help dry the roads, but icy spots are possible Tuesday morning.  Even during the afternoon, highs will struggle to reach the freezing marks in spots.

Temperatures will be nearly 20° colder than average for this time of year.  And it's not just us dealing with the bitter cold.  The map below shows the temperature departure from average.  The blue and purple colors indicate temperatures 20-30° below average. 

WxBell GFS Output

If the cold wasn't enough, winds will be howling between 25-35 mph Tuesday.  That means wind chills will be in teens and 20s during the day.  Here's an hourly forecast of the "feels like" temperature on Tuesday.

Winds will gradually diminish late Tuesday night, but the cold air sticks around Wednesday with highs, again, in the mid 30s.  Temperatures will rebound slightly by the end of the week and into next week, but will still be well below our average of 58°.

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A Cold Wet Rain Could End as Snow on Monday

November 14, 2014 - 12:46 PM
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If you didn’t think the cold weather was here with yesterday’s daytime high temperatures topping out in the 40s, I am sure you were reminded how winter has paid us an early visit with the first flakes of the season Thursday evening. Not everybody saw the light flurries; some people experienced some sleet as well! Any precipitation last night quickly changed to rain but it was a reminder that this forecast is more reminiscent of a December or January forecast as opposed to a mid-November forecast. Either way, we will have yet another reminder of winter paying us an early visit as we start off the next work week.

Winds will continue to die down through the evening so we are expecting light winds during the overnight. Light winds and clear skies means those temperatures are going to drop.

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Caption: Overnight lows Friday overnight

We will start off on the chilly side on Saturday as arctic high pressure builds right overhead. Temperatures will manage to make it into the low to mid 40s. So if you are headed to College Park on Saturday night, watch for temperatures falling through the lower 30s during the Maryland/Michigan State game. Clouds will increase on Sunday ahead of our next system with temperatures warming to around 50 degrees! That means we are looking good for the Redskins vs. Tampa Bay game at Fed Ex – just some clouds but remaining dry.

After midnight on Sunday, all bets are off. An area of low pressure will move out of the Gulf of Mexico and to the northeast along a cold front. It will gain some energy from a few disturbances moving out of the Great Lakes region as well as the Midwest.

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We could see a little wintry mix at the onset after midnight on Sunday well north and west of D.C. but this is mainly going to be a cold rain event for the WJLA viewing area all day on Monday with the influence of warm air at all levels of the atmosphere. And FYI, it will most likely rain both during the morning AND evening commutes.

 

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Caption: Monday afternoon, snow stays well west with rain (green) around the region.

As that low moves off the coast into the evening hours, there is a chance the rain could quickly change to some light snow as cold air surges in from the west. Not expecting any accumulation around the D.C. area as that low will quickly move to the north and east, taking the precipitation with it.
After the precip moves out Monday night, another arctic high pressure will move in advancing even colder air into the region. Daytime highs on Tuesday and Wednesday may not make it out of the 30s!

Good news is, the Climate Prediction Center has our temperatures moving back towards normal (mid to upper 50s) by Thanksgiving week so there is an end in sight!

 

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