While the Atlantic Hurricane season is still two weeks away, today marks the beginning of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.  And, already things are starting to develop. 

Investigation 90

 
 The National Hurricane Center has identified a cluster of thunderstorms hundreds of miles south of the Mexican Coast as having the potential of developing into the first named storm of the season.  If so, it would be named Alvin.  Here's a complete list of hurricane names for 2013. (I always like looking to see if my name is on there, it never is!) This chart of forecast models show that if Alvin develops it should stay away from land. 

Computer Model Track

 
The large majority of hurricanes here travel from East to West or Northwest. The Eastern Pacific season on average is busier than the Atlantic season which can impact us here in D.C.  

Average Tropical Cyclones East Pacific

On average there are 15 named storms, 8 of them becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes (cat 3 or stronger).  We are expecting it to be a near average to slightly below average Eastern Pacific season in terms of numbers of cyclones.  One of the reasons for this has to do with the temperature of waters in the equatorial pacific. Notice they are slightly below average in blue.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomoly

We look to that El Nino phenomenon for clues.   El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the unusual warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. When temps are warm and winds are calm, it can make for a busy hurricane season in the Pacific. This year, we are in a "neutral" phase of El Nino and should stay that way through the summer, making for a trickier forecast.  More detailed ENSO info here. So, why should we care about this in D.C? The ocean and atmosphere are a continuum of currents and patterns. And, when it's warm in the Pacific, it is often cool in the Atlantic and vice versa.  With a near normal to below average season in the Pacific, we are seeing parts of the Atlantic warm up, especially off the coast of Africa.

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

 
 Notice the cooler temperatures hugging the East Coast of the U.S. where we have had a cool May.  It's also a bit cool in the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Water temperatures need to be 80 degrees to support the "fuel" needed for a hurricane. The Atlantic Season may very well end up a busy one as many hurricane experts are predicting. We are coming off three consecutive "busy" seasons with 19 named storms each of those years.  We'll talk and blog more about the Atlantic Season in the next few weeks.

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Spring is here and that means many of us are spending a lot more time outdoors.  We may have gotten out of the habit of applying sunscreen over the winter.  Here's a common conversation at my house:  "But Mom... it's not even sunny out. Why do I have to wear sunscreen?"  I admit it. My kids absolutely hate slathering on the thick white lotion that protects them from harmful ultra violet rays.  It's even a battle some days. But, I make them do it anyway, and we wear it year round.  Today is Melanoma Monday, as declared by the American Academy of Dermatology. They would like you to "Spot the Orange" and wear that color today to remind others to protect themselves. Did you know that skin cancer is the most common form of cancer?  And, it's highly preventable. Here's is today's forecast Ultra Violet Index. 

UV Forecast May 6th

 
 Wear sunscreen with UVA and UVB proction with an SPF of 30 or greater and apply it every few hours.  If at the beach, make sure it is waterproof.  On a day when the UV Index is "Extreme" it takes less than 15 minutes to get burned. Here is a chart to calculate sun exposure/burn times.  

Sun Exposure/Burn Times Chart

 
You can get your own personalized UV forecast by entering your zip code here.  The sun's rays are strongest from 10a until 2p.  Avoid prolonged exposure during this time.  Staying in the shade or taking shade "breaks" is recommended, so is wearing light weight long sleeves and pants if you're going to be in direct sun at length.  A hat can cover and protect your head and face. And sunglasses with UV protection are a must.  Remember white sandy beaches and water reflect the rays and can double your exposure.  Memorial Day weekend is just a few weeks away. Check out the average UV Index for May.

Average May Ultra Violet Index

 
  Did I mention that sun damage makes you look OLD?  Ever heard of sun spots? Sun damage in your younger years can translate to darker discoloration of your skin. Check out this image from the Mayo Clinic. 

Photo of Sun Damage from The Mayo Clinic

 
 Not a lot of sun expected until Friday in the D.C. area.  Make sure you pull out the sunscreen now, and check if its expired.  If so, time to freshen up and stay sun safe.

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