The first hurricane forecast of the season was put out today from Dr. William Gray and Dr. Philip Klotzbach, who lead up the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University. The announcement was made from the National Tropical Weather Conference this morning in San Padre Island. Meteorologist Nate Johnson from WRAL in Raleigh, NC is at the conference and has been live-tweeting the announcement. Be sure to follow him for the latest from the conference.
Klotzbach: Going for a relatively quiet season in 2014. 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane. #tropicalwx— Nate Johnson (@nsj) April 10, 2014
The forecast is for a quiet season this year with only 9 named storms, 3 becoming hurricanes and only 1 major hurricane. An average hurricane season features 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. They site one reason for fewer predicted in 2014 being the developing El Nino pattern, which can lead to increased vertical wind shear in the tropics which hinders tropical cyclone development.
Other features such as cooler than normal sea surface temperatures will also be a big factor in the tropical season ahead. Dr. Klotzbach wants everyone to remember though that it only takes one bad storm to make for a terrible hurricane season. 1992 only had one major hurricane, and it happened to be Hurricane Andrew. They've given the various probabilities of a landfall below.
Klotzbach: Probabilities of landfall: US coastline 35%, east coast 20%, Gulf Coast 19%, Carribbean 28%. #tropicalwx— Nate Johnson (@nsj) April 10, 2014