The weather picture is rather complex this week and we've got a little bit of almost everything in the forecast, even SNOW! (Ok, the snow is for Canada, Montana and maybe the Western High Plains, but now I have your attention!)
Low pressure has been keeping us cloudy and cool in the Mid-Atlantic since Sunday night. The high in D.C. yesterday was 77 degrees and with mid-upper 70s again today, it will be the coolest stretch of temperatures since late May (thanks to Ryan Miller for that nugget). All of this is happening on the average last date of 90 degrees at Reagan National.
As the low pressure system departs tonight, our focus turns to a potent cold front that is currently in the Midwest. MUCH cooler air is coming in from Canada behind it where they have been seeing some snow!
(GFS Model showing possible snow in Western NE Thursday)
The cold front drops through the plains and spreads toward the east. Check out the chilly nights ahead for our friends to the north!
Notice on that forecast model that as the cool air invades the nation's mid-section, warm air will be drawn in ahead of that front it the east. It will be muggy in D.C. Wednesday as it warms up to around 80 and by Thursday we reach the top of the roller coaster with highs back in the mid to upper 80s. Here's a look at highs from the North American Model.
By the time it arrives in the D.C. area, this storm system will already have a history of producing severe weather. Today it will hit the Midwest and then the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday. By the time it reaches us, much of the energy will be to the north. However, with a strong jet in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the thunderstorms that develop over the D.C. region could produce damaging winds Thursday afternoon/evening.
This all should pass us overnight on Thursday and stall in the southeastern U.S. That puts us in the cool sector with 70s again for highs and overnight lows in the 50s even inside the beltway. The core of the cool air evades us, but it sure will feel like fall. In addition, a reinforcing cold front comes in on Saturday (bottom of roller coaster) with a few showers. Expect below average temperatures into next week.