It's that time of year again! Get those hats out, put those bets in - the second leg of the Triple Crown is right in our backyard. Yes, I am talking about the one and only Preakness Stakes at Pimlico in Baltimore, Maryland. The race begins at 6:20 PM, Saturday May 18th.

Right now the Pimlico website has the main track as "fast" and in good condition. Since this is the fastest track in the trio of those represented in the "Triple Crown" due to the shortness of the track itself, just a little rain could make for a very interesting outcome. Orb, (who also won the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs) is the clear favorite not only to take Preakness Stakes but to take the Triple Crown. However, it is not going to be really fun to bet on him. His odds are currently 1-1 which means you bet a dollar, you get a dollar. I'd say go out on a limb and make things interesting for yourself and then brag to everybody who bet on Orb after you win--but that's just me...and I digress....

Hopefully the track at Pimlico will be nowhere near the condition of the track at Churchill Downs--muddy, soaking wet and slick:

 So what is the forecast for the 138th Preakness Stakes?

Well, while although we do have an unsettled pattern of weather for the weekend, it looks like highs throughout the daytime will reach into the lower 70s with cloudy skies and a light SE wind at 5 - 10 mph. A chance of a passing shower or storm is not out of the question through the day but I only give that about a 25% shot.

By the time racetime rolls around at 6:20, temperatures will be right around 70 degrees with overcast skies. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm now at about 20% - 25% shot.

I do get a little concerned that at least one of our models, the GFS is picking up some more widespread rain for Saturday--including for Baltimore. This shows precipitation for 2:00PM EST:

However, I believe at this point the threat of more widespread rain stays well to the south of the D.C. and Baltimore areas through the day on Saturday.

If you are out and about at Preakness or anywhere- check out our local radar for the Baltimore area:

Baltimore Local Radar | Area Wide Radar

Happy Betting!!!!

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After an absolutely gorgeous first weekend of May, the start of the work week weather took a turn in the opposite direction.  Unfortunately, for those of you not a fan of the grey skies and showers, this weather pattern is here to stay... at least for a good chunk of the work week.  So why the unsettled weather?  Let's explore.

Check out yesterday's satellite image.  Notice the big "swirl" from space.

GOES

I went ahead and drew the features that are present from this system.  The 'L' represents the area of low pressure that is spinning, counterclockwise, over the southeast US.  The blue arrows indicate the onshore, or easterly, flow bringing in Atlantic moisture to the mid-Atlantic.  Air circulates around the low in this counterclockwise fashion.

The low will track northeast over the coming days, but will be slow to do so.  Take a look at the upper level low from about 18,000 ft (500mb).  This is a simulation of where the low will be later this afternoon. 

NCEP

As the low tracks northeast, cloudy and damp weather will persist across the region.  It won't be a complete washout each day this week, but scattered showers will be possible through at least Thursday.  Check out the Weather Prediction Center's quantitative precipitation forecast through Thursday evening.  This forecast shows between 1 and 2 inches of rain over our region, with locally higher amounts over southwestern VA.

WPC

With moderate rain possible over an extended period of time, the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for parts of the Shenandoah valley through late tonight.  Remember, if you encounter standing water, never drive through it. The latest Flood Watch was extended north into Clarke, Frederick (VA), Hampshire and Mineral Counties as well.

By late Thursday, the low weakens its grip and gets caught back in the overall pattern.  Compare the 500mb heights in this forecast (below) for Thursday night to the same map shown above.  Notice there is a slight dip in the wave pattern, but nothing cut-off (like in the similar image a few graphics up). 

NCEP

For us, this means a less unsettled weather pattern.... sort of, for Friday at least. High temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees by the end of the week, which could initiate a few airmass thunderstorms to develop, but nothing widespread.  A cold front will then slide through this weekend bringing continued chances for showers but drier and slightly cooler air can be expected for early next week. 

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Spring is here and that means many of us are spending a lot more time outdoors.  We may have gotten out of the habit of applying sunscreen over the winter.  Here's a common conversation at my house:  "But Mom... it's not even sunny out. Why do I have to wear sunscreen?"  I admit it. My kids absolutely hate slathering on the thick white lotion that protects them from harmful ultra violet rays.  It's even a battle some days. But, I make them do it anyway, and we wear it year round.  Today is Melanoma Monday, as declared by the American Academy of Dermatology. They would like you to "Spot the Orange" and wear that color today to remind others to protect themselves. Did you know that skin cancer is the most common form of cancer?  And, it's highly preventable. Here's is today's forecast Ultra Violet Index. 

UV Forecast May 6th

 
 Wear sunscreen with UVA and UVB proction with an SPF of 30 or greater and apply it every few hours.  If at the beach, make sure it is waterproof.  On a day when the UV Index is "Extreme" it takes less than 15 minutes to get burned. Here is a chart to calculate sun exposure/burn times.  

Sun Exposure/Burn Times Chart

 
You can get your own personalized UV forecast by entering your zip code here.  The sun's rays are strongest from 10a until 2p.  Avoid prolonged exposure during this time.  Staying in the shade or taking shade "breaks" is recommended, so is wearing light weight long sleeves and pants if you're going to be in direct sun at length.  A hat can cover and protect your head and face. And sunglasses with UV protection are a must.  Remember white sandy beaches and water reflect the rays and can double your exposure.  Memorial Day weekend is just a few weeks away. Check out the average UV Index for May.

Average May Ultra Violet Index

 
  Did I mention that sun damage makes you look OLD?  Ever heard of sun spots? Sun damage in your younger years can translate to darker discoloration of your skin. Check out this image from the Mayo Clinic. 

Photo of Sun Damage from The Mayo Clinic

 
 Not a lot of sun expected until Friday in the D.C. area.  Make sure you pull out the sunscreen now, and check if its expired.  If so, time to freshen up and stay sun safe.

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