NASA is looking forward to this weekend's supermoon. That's when the moon appears bigger and brighter because it's the closest it will be to earth all year.

Adam Caskey visited Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt Tuesday morning. Dr. Michelle Thaller, a NASA Scientist says the moon will appear about 14 percent larger and 30 percent brighter than a typical Full Moon does.

The Moon will be at its closest distance to the Earth at exactly 7:32 a.m. on June 23, but you can still see it on the night of the June 22 as well.

Supermoons occur when the moon reaches the lunar perigee - its closest point to the earth on its elliptical orbit around Earth. Eileen Whelan pointed out last year that the Earth's perigee is about 50,000 kilometers closer to our planet than its apogee, which is the moon's longest distance from Earth.

In 2012, a supermoon was able to be seen on May 6, and a 2011 supermoon was visible on March 19.

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Climate statistics for the month of May and the Spring months of March through May were released in the latest State of the Climate report. The D.C. area was actually slightly above normal temperature-wise for the month of May because of the three 90 degree days to end the month. Otherwise, it was a very changeable month with high temperatures in the 80s one week and 60s the next. Reagan National even recorded two days with lows in the 40s on the 24th and 25th of May, which was the latest such period of temperatures that cool in over 30 years.

Above is a look at the Spring temperature ranks for the United States. Much of the U.S. experienced its top 10 coolest Spring on record from the upper Midwest to the Southeast. The D.C. area was slightly closer to normal for temperatures and the Western U.S. including California and Arizona were well above normal.

See the full report here: NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: National Overview for May 2013

Overall, this was the coolest Spring period since 1996, and the 38th coolest Spring on record.

The above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures in the north-central United States were associated with a spring snow cover extent that was above average. According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the spring snow cover extent was the eighth largest on record and the largest since 1984.

According to the report, temperatures for the year are now averaging 0.2 degrees C above normal. Although temperatures are still cooler than average for the year for much of the Midwest, Plains and Southeast states, near-normal to above average temperatures have been noted through the rest of the country.

As far as precipitation, it has been both good and bad. Record precipitation across the Midwest has caused flooding along many rivers including the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. On the otherhand, California has been experiencing its driest month on record which has contributed to conditions enhancing the threat for forest fires. The Drought Monitor below continues to show exceptional drought for much of the western Plains and through the Southwest though areas along and east of the Mississippi are in good condition entering summer. 

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National Weather Service meteorologist Andrew Woodcock mentioned it this morning in his forecast discussion, and it got me thinking, so I dug a little deeper to compare the past five Junes, and I wanted to take a peek at the long range forecast for the rest of this month.

So far this June at Reagan National Airport (DCA), there have been only two 90 degree days with the warmest temperature being 91°. Compare that to 2012 when there were three 90 degree days by the 17th, but there were eight during the second half of the month for a grand total of eleven. Also, keep in mind that there was some serious heat during June 2012 with the warmest reading being 104° on the 29th.

Below is a table of the previous 5 Junes. Of note: June 2010 had eighteen 90 degree days, so over half the month featured highs at or above 90° with a maximum temperature of 100° on the 24th. Conversely, what a relief June 2009 was with only two 90 degree days and a maximum of a mere 91°.

June Comparison

So what’s ahead for the rest of the month? Well, for the rest of this week, I think we’ll have only one shot at a 90 degree day, and that’ll be tomorrow. Also, Sunday and into the final week of June I think we have the potential to come close to 90° for a few more days, and should DCA hit 90°, I doubt it’ll exceed it by much. The Climate Prediction Center has the D.C. area within an increased chance of above average temperatures through the end of June, but no major heat seems to be in the works for the final two weeks of June for the Washington area. That doesn’t mean that it’ll be cool with below average temperatures – I’m just looking at 90 degree day potential.

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The statement below was issued on Friday from the National Weather Service office in Sterling, VA. Additional surveys may be released at some point today discussing the Saint Mary's County tornado as well as the survey of the damage in the Thornburg, VA area.

...Public Information Statement...
Long track tornado confirmed through Montgomery County, Maryland.

One additional tornado confirmed in Saint Mary’s County, Maryland
One investigation continues in Spotsylvania County

One long track tornado has been confirmed through Montgomery County. A second tornado was confirmed in Saint Mary’s County affecting the Coltons Point area. A third area of wind damage is still under investigation near Thornburg, Virginia.

The Montgomery County tornado report follows. The Saint Mary’s tornado
report will be available on Monday as the survey team is still working on the details. The Thornburg event will also be detailed on Monday.

The National Weather Service in Sterling expresses its appreciation
to those who assisted in conducting surveys and provided information
used during the surveys...including members of the emergency management...skywarn storm spotters...and members of the public affected by these storms.

...Tornado confirmed in Montgomery County, Maryland...

Location...North Potomac to Burtonsville in Montgomery County, Maryland
Date...June 13 2013
Estimated time...3:41 pm EDT to 3:59 pm EDT
Maximum EF-scale rating...EF-0
Estimated maximum wind speed...75 mph
Maximum path width...150 yards
Path length...17.3 miles
Beginning lat/lon...39.091N / 77.269W
Ending lat/lon...39.108N / 76.947W
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in
NWS storm data.

...Summary...

Eyewitness accounts...radar imagery...and a ground survey concluded
a long track EF-0 tornado occurred in Montgomery County, Maryland
on the afternoon of June 13th 2013. Peak winds were estimated at
75 mph. Damage was almost entirely from downed trees. In that
regard numerous homes and a few parked vehicles were damaged by
trees falling onto them. No injuries have been reported.

First consistent damage was noted near the intersection of Turkey Foot Road and Jones Lane in southwest Montgomery County near North Potomac, Maryland where a few large trees were over the road. The tornado raced east nearly 60 mph to the northern section of Rockville,
Maryland. At least 14 homes were significantly damaged by uprooted
trees.

As it continued east to the Norbeck and Aspen Hill area 30 trees were uprooted in the Manor Country Club Golf Course as well as numerous homes damaged in the surrounding communities from tree damage. Tree damage was noted along the Intercounty Connector Route 200 at the Layhill Road exit. Finally a few trees were downed in Spencerville and Burtonsville.

Based on the damage, this tornado is rated EF-0, with estimated wind speeds of 75 mph. The 17.3 mile damage path length was covered in 18 minutes and had consistent small branch damage with occasional areas with significant tree damage.

Additionally there was a parallel 7 miles path of damage through south
Rockville and Glenmont, Maryland with similar tree damage. This area was found to be straight line winds from the outflow just south of the tornado from the parent supercell storm.

The National Weather Service would like to extend its thanks to Montgomery County Fire who confirmed the tornado on the ground during the storm and Montgomery County Emergency Management who provided invaluable assistance during the ground survey.

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Severe thunderstorms were reported throughout the D.C. area yesterday with the strongest in the afternoon hours. These storms caused wind damage throughout the region and more tornadoes were reported just 4 days after the last event on Monday. What an active week!

A tornado was reported by the fire department in Norbeck in Montgomery County as it crossed Norbeck Rd. and Georgia Ave. In addition, funnel clouds were reported by trained weather spotters in Spotsylvania County, another in Loudoun County near Countryside by the Sterling Fire Department, and one more at BWI Thurgood Marshall estimated to be a few miles away.

Check out this interactive storm report map where you can click on the individual reports for more information

I came across this video on youtube of a timelapse of the storms yesterday. Apparently this was taken near Columbia, MD and there possibly is a funnel around the 1:06 mark. I'm not sure how authentic this is but is worth taking a look at anyways because of the great timelapse.

This is what the publisher wrote about the timelapse below.

Published on Jun 13, 2013

Filmed a time-lapse of today's severe thunderstorm, and captured the Olney-Colesville tornado zipping by at 1:06. I can't confirm 100% that it is the tornado but it appeared exactly where and when it should have given the NWS warning a few minutes prior.

Later in the video you can see the bow shock and fast-moving winds that spawned a tornado in Rockville, MD.

Tornado or not, still a beautiful storm and an exciting day for storm-spotting in Maryland - enjoy!

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5:53pm: Our WeatherBug station reports 1.24" of rain in Columbia, MD, 1.2" in Jessup, 1.11" in Hamilton and 1.04" in Germantown. 

5:52pm: A Flood Warning is in effect until 9:45pm for Anne Arundel, Loudoun, Montgomery, Howard and Baltimore Counties. Recent rainfall of 1-2 inches will cause rises on some creeks and rivers.

5:49pm: Unfortunately for some, now it is time to pick up the debris left behind. Here is one example from Lexington Park, MD from Dawn Elliott of a large tree down in her backyard.

5:19pm: Here is a link to all of the local storm reports from the National Weather Service office in Sterling, VA which issues the watches and warnings for the D.C. area.

4:49 p.m.: Most of the major alerts and warnings have been canceled for many parts of the D.C. area, but the storm is making its way toward the Eastern Shore.

The Bay Bridge has been closed in both directions while the storm pushes through.

4:33 p.m.: Power outages are becoming a major problem for the entire area, with tens of thousands regionwide in the dark. Follow the latest numbers and find out who to call for help here.

4:22 p.m.: Passengers and staff at BWI Airport near Baltimore have been ordered to take shelter away from windows due to the severe storms.

4:17 p.m.: The National Weather Service says that confirmed tornadoes have touched down today in Laurel and Olney.

4:16 p.m.: Tornado Warnings continue to exist in portions of Anne Arundel, Prince George's and Montgomery counties.

If a tornado warning is issued, take cover in an interior room on the lowest floor of the building you're in.

2:35pm: A Tornado Warning is in effect just south of Fredericksburg, VA for Spotsylvania County in VA until 3pm. A funnel cloud was reported with this storm located 3 miles west-southwest of Fredericksburg and just west of I-95. The warning is in effect until 3pm.

2:06pm: Severe T-Storm Warnings are in effect until 3:15pm for the northern Shenandoah Valley. Storms are headed towards I-81 with possible gusts to 60mph.

Another area of severe storms are just southwest of Frederickburg in VA. These storms are capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

Doppler here

1:51pm: The next line of storms is approaching the I-81 corridor as it exits the mountains and enters the Shenandoah Valley. Severe T-Storm Warnings are posted for severe winds and large hail. Be sure to keep an eye on Live Doppler Radar as these storms move into the region from the west.

12:28pm: A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect until 7pm for the majority of the D.C. area. Damaging winds, large hail and an isolated tornado may be possible during the afternoon hours so be sure to stay tuned to the latest severe weather alerts.

12:07pm: Skies are beginning to clear ahead of the next line of storms. This will lead to added instability with additional heating and will help fuel these storms as they pass east of the Appalachian Mountains.

11:54am: A new Severe T-Storm Watch will be issued soon for the D.C. area and points south. In addition, a Moderate Risk for severe storms will also be placed over portions of North Carolina. The Mesoscale Discussion can be found here.

11:39am: Temperatures are on the rise into the low 80s around D.C. and south but still in the 70s with some stratiform precipitation and clouds lingering around the northwestern suburbs. Winds are currently breezy out ahead of the trailing cold front moving into West Virginia. Conditions for lunch will be fine so no worries about storms over the next hour.

HRRR Model showing forecast composite reflectivity this afternoon

A severe line of storms is moving into WV and is expected to reach the D.C. area later this afternoon between 2pm and 6pm today but may linger even later as they cross the D.C. metro. Models are expecting a line a storms to develop west of D.C. and move east towards the Metro and I-95 corridor south of D.C. Storms may again feature damaging winds and large hail, though a weak tornado may not be out of the question as well.

This system is already developing strong storms over the mountains that I am concerned will continue to intensify once they get east of the Blue Ridge into a more unstable airmass. We'll keep you posted.

9:51am: Storms have weakened as they moved into the D.C. area. It looked as if outflow came through ahead of the storms and took away some of the strength from the line. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled for the majority of the D.C. area besides Calvert and Anne Arundel Counties which will follow shortly.

More storms are developing west of the D.C. area, with the strongest in Ohio and West Virginia. This is the area we will watch for additional development through the early afternoon. Severe storms will continue to be possible through the afternoon hours, and the D.C. area is still under a Moderate Risk for severe weather today.

We are still expecting more storms to fire this afternoon as some clearing is already being noted across parts of the D.C. area. This will help to destabilize the atmosphere, which doesn't need much more destabilization given the already strong dynamics as the area of low pressure and associated shortwave trough approach the reagion from the west.

Numerous showers and storms are expected to affect the D.C. area between 2pm and 6pm and another Severe Watch with Warnings will be possible. The storm activity later today has to potential to be stronger than what the region saw this morning, so don't let your guard down just yet. We will keep you aware of the latest developments through the day so you stay a step ahead of the game.

9:28am: Severe T-Storm Warning in effect for Prince Georges County and Anne Arundel through 10:15am. The majority of this storm is already out of Prince Georges County and the hardest hit areas will be in Anne Arundel from Annapolis and points north. This line will affect the Bay Bridge east to Kent Island and the Delmarva.

9:22am: Storms are rolling through the D.C. Metro currently and will be through the city over the next 30 minutes or so heading into Prince Georges County and Southern MD. Radar Here (Hit Control and F5 at the same time to refresh)

8:48am: Don't forget to check out our HD weather cameras, they are showing some pretty gnarly skies right now!

8:34am: Here are two pictures from Megan Bower. One near Woodstock, VA (top) and the other near Strasburg, VA (bottom).

Shelf Cloud near Woodstock, VA

Near Strasburg, VA

8:26am: Storms are beginning to enter Leesburg in Loudoun Co., VA as well as extreme western Montgomery Co. in MD. Damascus, Mt. Airy and Clarksburg will all be affected soon. Another strong storm is located in Western Fauquier County moving east towards The Plains, VA along I-66.

LATEST RADAR IMAGE

8:11am: Quarter to Half Dollar sized hail was reported in Libertytown, MD in Ferederick County.

8:04am: A tree has been reported down in Washington Co., MD near Keedysville from emergency managers. 

8:03am: A Severe T-Storm Watch continues through the Eastern Shore as well through 11am.

7:55am: Severe T-Storm Warnings now extend east to Loudoun County in VA through 8:30am. Damaging winds are still the primary threat in these storms. Radar HERE.

7:49am: A Severe T-Storm Warning is in effect for Frederick in MD, Carroll, Washington, Berkeley and Jefferson Counties may have damaging winds up to 70mph and hail to the size of half dollars! The strongest part of this line is in Northern Frederick County in MD.

7:36am: A Severe T-Storm Warning is currently in effect for Frederick, Berkeley, Jefferson and Washington Counties until 8:15am. Winds in excess of 60mph are possible in this line of storms.

7:28am: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through 11am this morning as a line of thunderstorms moves towards the D.C. Metro area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat in this line of storms as it moves through the D.C. area by 10am. The Watch covers the majority of the D.C. area besides Stafford County and south in VA and St. Marys County in MD.

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After strong storms ripped through the area on Monday, 3 tornadoes confirmed, another round of severe weather is possible Wednesday and Thursday.

The Storm Predicition Center has the the D.C. area under a Slight risk for severe storms both days.  What does this mean?  There is an elevated risk (15%) for damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes.  The areas shaded in red, in the Ohio Valley, are under a moderate risk for severe weather Wednesday, which means probabilities for severe are between 30% and 45%. 

Storm Prediction Center

By Thursday, D.C. remains under a Slight risk for severe storms, as a weather system strengthens and pushes East.  This is the convective outlook for Thursday.

Storm Prediction Center

Atmospherically, a surface and upper level frontal system will track along the north central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley Wednesday.  With very high heat and humidity, coupled with strong winds aloft, the potential exists for a severe weather outbreak. 

Even though strong thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday around the DC metro, the higher probability of severe weather arrives Thursday with more atmospheric dynamics at play.  Take a look at the 500mb vorticity on Thursday afternoon. 

The pink/white colors indicate high speed and directional shear, as an area of low pressure rapidly deepens and develops over northeast Maryland and Pennsylvania.  Here's another view of the setup at different levels of the atmosphere on Thursday afternoon.  Notice the precipitation field in the top right corner, as well as surface wind speed on the bottom left corner.

I highlight Thursday, as I think the dynamics are more inclined to enhance the severe weather threat in the D.C. area.  There will be plenty of heat and humidity on Wednesday for strong and potentially severe thunderstorms to fire up.  The forcing will be more prevalent on Thursday, but on both days it will be critical to monitor the changing weather situation. 

Stay updated on our weather homepage, as well as on ABC7 News and News Channel 8.  LIKE the Stormwatch7 weather page on FB too for additional updates.

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It was a day of very active weather in the mid-Atlantic yesterday. Tornado watches were in effect for the entire region through the afternoon and evening and a few tornado warnings were issued by the NWS.

After a day of surveying the damage, the NWS has confirmed three tornadoes in Maryland.  One in Baltimore county, another in Baltimore City, and the third in St. Mary's county.  The storm in Woodbine (Howard county) remains under review and the assessment will likely be released tomorrow. 

Each storm was classified as an EF0, which consitutes wind speeds between 65mph and 85mph.  The tornado in Coltons Point in St. Marys county was on the ground for a quarter mile with 65 mph winds.  The two tornadoes in Baltimore had peak winds of 80 mph.  The Fork Maryland storm was on the ground for a half mile.  Click here to read the full summary from the National Weather Service. 

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The work week started off with a wild bout of weather.  Strong and severe thunderstorms ripped through the region yesterday. 

The entire region was under a tornado watch for the majority of the afternoon and evening.  Sterling's NWS warned on 5 separate storm cells that had the potential to produce tornadoes.  There were tornado warnings in Winchester, Charles and Prince Georges counties, Montgomery, Howard, Carroll, and Baltimore counties, as well as another storm cell over St. Mary's county.  The NWS sent out this public information statement earlier today:

...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEYS UNDERWAY TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
WILL CONDUCT STORM SURVEYS OF AT LEAST FIVE AREAS TODAY IN CONCERT
WITH STATE AND COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
FORK MARYLAND IN BALTIMORE COUNTY...BALTIMORE CITY NEAR LOCUST
POINT... WOODBINE MARYLAND AND THE ROUTE 94 CORRIDOR IN HOWARD
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY... COLTONS POINT IN SAINT
MARYS COUNTY... AND CHARLES COUNTY BETWEEN LA PLATA AND WALDORF.

THESE SURVEYS ARE IN RELATION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY.

A FINAL ASSESSMENT INCLUDING RESULTS OF THE SURVEY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE COMPLETED AND TRANSMITTED VIA A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
THIS WEEK... POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE TODAY FOR SOME OF THE
DAMAGED AREAS.

IT WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE...WHICH CAN BE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/WASHINGTON.

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A dynamic weather pattern has taken shape, and it will likely lead to more rain and storms throughout the day. Additional downpours on top of already saturated soil could lead to flash flooding, which is why the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch through this evening. A few road closures due to high water are possible for the evening commute home this evening. As a matter of fact, some of our WeatherBug sites measured well over an inch, and in some cases over two inches from Sunday through this morning.

Flash Flood Watch

Another concern is the chance for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The primary threats include straight line damaging winds, and the possibility of an isolated, small tornado. We're not expecting to see the sun today, so instability should be limited, however, that should be offset by moderate wind shear and a dynamic weather pattern, which keeps the D.C. are in the zone of severe potential.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Monday

It looks as though we'll dry out a bit tomorrow with some sunshine, however, we can't rule out a few garden variety showers tomorrow afternoon. The next chance of more heavy rainfall is Wednesday night through Thursday. We'll keep an eye on that system and update accordingly as Thursday nears.

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Andrea is now a post tropical cyclone.  Winds are still at 45mph, but the storm has lost tropical characteristics.  The heaviest rain, as of 5pm, is along southeastern Maryland and the lower Eastern shore.  In fact, numerous flood warnings remain in effect.  

The first Flood Warning has been issued for parts of Prince Georges County as well as Anne Arundel County until 9:15pm tonight. The Stream Gauge at Western Branch in Upper Marlboro is at 8.3 feet and rising and more rain is expected this afternoon and evening. Below is a look at some area rainfall totals over the past 48 hours.

As the center of Tropical Storm Andrea gets closer to the tidewater of Virginia and lower eastern shore, conditions will be more conducive of tornado development.  St. Mary's county in Maryland and the lower eastern shore under a TORNADO WATCH through 8pm. 

Here are some of the rainfall totals across the area in the past 48 hours from our WeatherBug Network. Heavy rain will be likely from lunch time through the afternoon.

Heavier rainfall rates have been moving closer to the D.C. area. Here's a look at the radar image closer to 10am with associated rainfall rates. Heaviest rainfall is currently located over the Richmond area and south to the North Carolina border.

Our first named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season continues to bring heavy rain not only to the southeast but also the D.C. area. Tropical Storm Andrea developed late yesterday afternoon over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and made landfall at 5:40pm EDT Thursday along the Florida big bend.  As of the 11am Friday update, winds are still 45mph and Andrea's racing to the northeast at about 25mph.  The storm is expected to become post tropical later this evening and will be off the New England coast by tomorrow morning.  Below is a look at Andrea on an infrared satellite map as of 7:45am this morning.

7:45am Satellite View of Andrea

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for north of the Savannah River in Georgia to Cape Charles Light in Virginia. The lower Chesapeake Bay and Pamlico and Albermarle Sounds are also included in the warning. Here are the latest stats on Andrea from the National Hurricane Center.

The highest winds appear like they will mainly stay off the east coast over the Atlantic. Above is a look at the model guidance for the storm. The highest winds will stay east of the center of circulation and most of the modeling push the storm off the Eastern Shore Friday night. Take a look at the quantitative precipitation forecast through Saturday morning from the Weather Prediction Center below. 

Flash flood watches are in effect for much of the region.  Southern Maryland and the eastern shore of Maryland could see between 2 and 4 inches of rain.  Even the D.C. Metro could see hefty rainfall totals between 1-2 inches of rain with upwards of 3 inches in some spots.  More updates to come.

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The El Reno tornado was originally rated as an EF-3 tornado with winds up to 165 mph. Apparently, this was before the National Weather Service office in Norman, OK recieved data from OU RaxPol data, which recorded wind speeds up to 296 mph. See the original report here.

The National Severe Storms Laboratory reported that the 296 mph wind recorded was at 500 feet above the ground, so surface winds must have been somewhat slower due to friction.

El Reno tornado track

Not only were winds that strong, but apparently it was also the widest tornado ever recorded at 2.6 miles wide. The old record for widest tornado was 2.5 miles in Nebraska in 2004 in an F4 tornado that struck Wilber-Hallam on May 22.

For comparison, the width of this tornado would stretch from the Lincoln Memorial past the U.S. Capitol Building to 4th St. NE/SE. Think about that the next time you are along the National Mall.

Check out the loop of the phased array radar here

RaxPol Data

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The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on Saturday, June 1st.   Even though there are no active storms... yet, there is the potential for a developing tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico. 

As of the 8pm update from the National Hurricane Center, there is a 30% chance of tropical development from a weak area of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.  If this area of storms develops tropical characteristics, the first Atlantic storm name is Andrea (pronounced AN-dree-uh).

NHC

There are no signs pointing to a strong tropical system; however, there is the possibility for this current area of low pressure to become better organized as it slowly tracks to the northeast.  Take a look at one computer simulation Thursday afternoon.

Notice the 1003mb low over the Gulf of Mexico with heavy rain just off the northwest coast of Florida.  Speaking of heavy rain check out the precipitation forecast through Saturday night.  This particular NOAA product can sometimes being a little on the high side, but it gives you an overall idea of the wet pattern expected for Florida and the eastern Carolina's over a 5 day period. 

Weather Prediction Center

The track of the wave of low pressure, currently over the south-central Gulf, may move northeast over the coming days.  What does that mean for D.C.?  Well, it doesn't look like we have to worry about any major tropical storms; however, the weather pattern bears watching.  It could certainly mean a wet end to the work week and first half of the weekend.  Here's another simulation of the weather pattern by Saturday afternoon.

The area of low pressure, in this particular model run (18z GFS) has the low off the mid-Atlantic coast, but still could provide shower and thunderstorm chances through Saturday. 

This is all a preliminary forecast being about 4 days out, but it's still important to analyze and track.  As always, we'll continue to update you with the latest tropical developments.

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I didn’t know Tim Samaras or the other men that died in Friday’s violent tornado. It’s easy to jump to conclusions and criticize when you hear that storm chasers got caught in a tornado and were killed. But those who died in the El Reno tornado were scientists, not hot shots, trying to ultimately save lives by doing tornado research.

They are the ones that try and place their sensor equipment in the path of the tornado to study the winds and have had success. At this point we need to reflect and learn from what happened. We still don’t know everything about tornadoes and how they behave. This one took a sharp right turn after moving to the Northeast for a while. It was congested with traffic; there were a lot of storm chasers in the same area, the tornado became wrapped in rain and was difficult to see. Trees were blocking the view at times.

The circulation was wide and for miles you could feel intense winds were being drawn into the tornado. There are likely a number of reasons coming together that account for this tragic loss and we should look at is as an opportunity to improve chasing and to educate.

Friday Tornado Tracks

While EF 3,4, and 5 tornadoes are much less frequent here, we are still vulnerable to them. The La Plata, MD tornado in 2002 was an EF4, even stronger than the El Reno tornado. So, we ask ourselves, how is it possible for us to stay safe when some of the most experienced scientists in the world can’t? We don’t have storm shelters and safe rooms here like they do in Oklahoma. Some of us have basements. Underground is always best. No basement? The next best place is the lowest level of your home away from doors and windows, in the bathtub with a helmet on. Covering yourself with blankets and/or a mattress will help protect you from flying debris. You want as many walls as possible between you and the tornado. A closet under the stairwell is likely survivable, perhaps an interior pantry. If you live in a mobile home, you have to plan far enough ahead to evacuate to a safe place. Spend the day with a friend with a shelter if the risk is high. Being caught outdoors is the worst place to be. In a car might be better than out, but somewhat controversial since cars can be lifted by tornadoes and become projectiles. If no shelter is available, lying in a ditch and covering your head is the best bet.

We all have to take some personal responsibility when it comes to storm safety. We need to be weather aware. We need to watch television, or get on the internet or have our mobile devices programmed so that we are alerted on the days that we are at risk of tornadoes and then get alerted again when a watch and warning is issued. We can’t wait or rely on sirens to sound or for someone to call us and give us a heads up. We need to know ahead of time and we need to have a plan of how and where we will seek safety. This is just as true when you are at home, or if you are at a soccer game, or if you are at the grocery store or at work or school. We are the only ones that can make ourselves act. It’s easy to feel immune. Most of us never think anything bad could happen to us. That happens to other people. That happens to people who don’t pay attention, or who aren’t educated… The deaths of Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras and Carl Young prove that isn’t true. The storm chaser community has grown dramatically in the past ten years. There are literally thousands of people that chase storms every year. There is no license to be a storm chaser, and there are many in the field that don’t have the proper equipment or knowledge to stay safe and get out of harm’s way. And every now and then even those that do, can get caught by the unexpected, reminding us we still have a lot to learn and we are not in charge.

For an informative look at Tim Samaras's work and the El Reno tornado, there is an excellent blog by Dr. Jeff Masters that you can read here.

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