How much are you enjoying this taste of spring in November? Or would you rather like to keep your winter jackets on with cold air over us? Well, this is the first time I can honestly say we can make everyone happy with the weather forecast. For at least the next 10 days as we get a taste of both mild air and cool air thanks to the remnants of an incredible storm that will reshape near the western coast of Alaska by Friday.
Caption: NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible picture of Typhoon Nuri on November 4th at 11:10p.m. EST as clouds (newly developed thunderstorms) replace the original eyewall.
In the short term, expect rain to roll across the region Wednesday night continuing through the first part of Thursday as a cold front finally works its way through the region. There will be another cold front that will swing through Thursday evening that could produce a few more isolated showers but for the most part, we will just be concerned with the winds and the cool air that will follow the front on Thursday night.
By Friday, temperatures will only rise into the 50s for daytime highs after only topping out in the upper 60s/lower 70s for the last few days.
We look to stay in the 50s before another warm up into the 60s by the middle of next week followed by another cool down by the end of next week: a rollercoaster of temperatures if you will. And of course, this sounds like something we speak of almost every single month, no matter the season. However, for this forecast – there is an interesting addition to the puzzle. That piece of the puzzle is about 805 miles south of Tokyo, Japan today.
Super Typhoon Nuri is one heck of a storm. This is one of the most impressive and most powerful cyclones that has developed in the western Pacific in 2014. Not only did this storm reach the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane but it kept winds going at 180 mph for at least 24 hours with a minimum pressure recorded of 910mb!
Wednesday afternoon, Typhoon Nuri moved to the northeast at 12 mph weakening as it migrates to the east of Japan entering into an area with pretty high vertical wind shear, ripping it apart as it travels. It is also moving into colder water, cutting off its moisture and supply feed. However, with that being said, the eventual remnants of Nuri will continue to move through open waters and towards the western coast of Alaska and the Bering Sea, reintensifiying as it navigates to the north and east becoming a storm-force cold core area of low pressure.
Caption: The European Model shows the strong area of low pressure off the coast of Alaska with a forecast barometric pressure of 920mb.
By the time it reaches the Bering Sea and the western Alaska, the pressure is forecast to drop from about 970mb on Thursday night to between 918mb and 922mb on Friday night (the lower the pressure means the more intense the storm). In fact, the lowest pressure storm (obviously we are not talking about a tropical storm here) observed in the Bering Sea was on October 25th, 1977 where a storm by the Dutch Harbor (the islands the roll southwest off the southern part of Alaska) dropped to 925mb in pressure! *To give you a little comparison: the minimum barometric pressure of Hurricane Katrina’s second landfall was 920mb – which is the third strongest to make landfall*
(For all the weather nerds out there *I am obviously one so I welcome you with open arms*: The extreme drop in pressure will be due to the very cold air at the surface interacting with the warm air from Nuri aloft. This will make for a fast-moving wind surrounded by slower moving air that will eventually create a bombing out or an extreme deepening of that low-dropping the pressure rapidly).
Since this is such a powerful and impressive storm, we are talking about hurricane force winds for Alaska on both Friday and Saturday as well as seas that could reach more than 45 feet with abundant precipitation! Good news is that this low will weaken steadily through the end of the weekend and the middle of next week as it drifts slowly to the east.
However, all this energy has to go somewhere and generally when we see these types of situation, we can see effects across portions of North America as that energy gets pulled into the North Pacific jet stream. All in all, as the storm moved through the open waters of the Pacific, on its way to Alaska, it was already doing its deed and amplifying the longwave pattern downstream across North America. And what does that mean exactly? Well the remnants of Nuri will impact our weather forecast across the continental United States
Caption: As the remnants of Nuri effects Alaska, we cool down quite a bit on the eastern seaboard with heavy snow and much cooler temperatures expected in the northern plains.
And back to our rollercoaster temperatures here on the east coast. While we are warming up here over the last few days with high pressure pumping in some nice southerly air, we will be cooling down as a front dives our way for Thursday. We look to stay cool through the weekend before yet another frontal system comes through on Saturday into Sunday. Warming up into mid next week, we cool down once again by the end of next week.
Caption: A look a daytime highs possible next Friday are significantly cooler around the D.C. area.
While I think we will see minimal effects here in Washington D.C. that anybody will just chalk up to “regular weather changes,” it is very interesting to think that everything is connected in the weather world. A storm in the western Pacific could eventually impact our weather no more than 10 days later.