Later this week, eyes will turn to the southeast coastline off the Carolinas where a subtropical disturbance may form anytime between Wednesday and Friday. The current shower and thunderstorm activity is over Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas and will continue to drift very slowly to the north just east of Florida over the next few days.
This area of showers and storms is associated with a surface and upper-level trough, meaning it doesn't have any tropical characteristics at the moment, but may become subtropical over the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the area for later in the week, but at this point only has a 30% chance for development. For the latest Special Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC has stated,
"A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near the
northwestern Bahamas around midweek. This system could gradually
acquire some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it
moves generally northward at a slow forward speed. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
- Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Courtesy: National Hurricane Center)
Looking ahead to the end of the work week and into the weekend, a few atmospheric models push this system into the Carolinas Friday where it diminishes and intensity and falls apart. This scenario keeps it south of our area with only a chance for storms on Saturday.
The Canadian model is the only one that has depicted the remnants reaching the D.C. area by Saturday, and the ECMWF keeps the system off-shore all the way to the weekend.
That being said, there is a fair amount of uncertainty late week into the weekend, so this would be a good week to check back on the weekend forecast every so often if you have big plans. I'm trying to go on a long hike Saturday, so believe me I'll be watching it very closely!