The August 2011 earthquake in Washington caused significant damage to the Washington Monument and has been closed to the public, as repairs are being done. 

If you've been around town, you've likely seen the scaffolding growing up the side of the monument, as crews work hard to make sure the structual integrity of the monument is up to standard.  This process has been going on since March 2013.  Take a minute to watch this incredible timelapse over the past 54 days of the rising scaffolding and the changing weather over the two month period.  Incredible!

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It's that time of year again! Get those hats out, put those bets in - the second leg of the Triple Crown is right in our backyard. Yes, I am talking about the one and only Preakness Stakes at Pimlico in Baltimore, Maryland. The race begins at 6:20 PM, Saturday May 18th.

Right now the Pimlico website has the main track as "fast" and in good condition. Since this is the fastest track in the trio of those represented in the "Triple Crown" due to the shortness of the track itself, just a little rain could make for a very interesting outcome. Orb, (who also won the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs) is the clear favorite not only to take Preakness Stakes but to take the Triple Crown. However, it is not going to be really fun to bet on him. His odds are currently 1-1 which means you bet a dollar, you get a dollar. I'd say go out on a limb and make things interesting for yourself and then brag to everybody who bet on Orb after you win--but that's just me...and I digress....

Hopefully the track at Pimlico will be nowhere near the condition of the track at Churchill Downs--muddy, soaking wet and slick:

 So what is the forecast for the 138th Preakness Stakes?

Well, while although we do have an unsettled pattern of weather for the weekend, it looks like highs throughout the daytime will reach into the lower 70s with cloudy skies and a light SE wind at 5 - 10 mph. A chance of a passing shower or storm is not out of the question through the day but I only give that about a 25% shot.

By the time racetime rolls around at 6:20, temperatures will be right around 70 degrees with overcast skies. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm now at about 20% - 25% shot.

I do get a little concerned that at least one of our models, the GFS is picking up some more widespread rain for Saturday--including for Baltimore. This shows precipitation for 2:00PM EST:

However, I believe at this point the threat of more widespread rain stays well to the south of the D.C. and Baltimore areas through the day on Saturday.

If you are out and about at Preakness or anywhere- check out our local radar for the Baltimore area:

Baltimore Local Radar | Area Wide Radar

Happy Betting!!!!

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The April climate report shows the month was much cooler than normal across the lower 48, with an average temperature of 49.7°F, which was 1.4°F below the 20th century mean. This made the month the 23rd coolest on record and marked the coolest April since 1997.

Other April Statistics

Reagan National Airport actually ended up 2.1°F warmer than normal for the month, and would have been even warmer than that if it weren't for 9 of the last 11 days in April with below average temperatures.

April Statewide Temperature Ranks

Above is a look at the statewide temperatures ranks from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). As you can see, Virginia actually ranked as the 28th warmest April on record and states on the east coast and west coast had above normal temperatures.

The there's the central U.S. North Dakota recorded its coldest April on record with a statewide average of 31°F! That's an incredible 9.9°F below normal for the month. It reminds me of last March in D.C. which was the warmest on record at 10°F above average.

Alaska also had a cold April, with temperatures 5.8°F below average and it ranked as the 7th coolest April on record for the state. Fairbanks, AK was actually 14.5°F below normal for the month!

Snow cover across the U.S. ranked as the 5th largest snow cover in April in the 47-year period of record. The Care Bears even helped close the season at Breckenridge in Colorado!

Finally, for the first time in a long time, record cold highs and lows outnumbered the record warm highs and lows. In fact, there ended up being three times as many record lows as record highs. Check here to see the latest update for the year.

FULL CLIMATE REPORT HERE

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LIVE DOPPLER | SOUTHERN MD RADAR

The Storm Prediction Center has collaborated with the National Weather Service office in Sterling, VA today to upgrade parts of the D.C. area to a Slight Risk for severe storms. This just highlights a greater potential for severe weather in the area highlighted below. The best chances for severe storms will actually be in the southern part of the blue circled area.

Slight Risk Upgrade by the SPC and NWS Sterling

Damaging winds will still be the primary mode of severe weather in any storms that form and location should be along and south of the frontal boundary. A lot of lightning has also been in the storms that have developed around Charlottesville.

Areas south of Fredericksburg in VA closer to Central Virginia and the Northern Neck will have the biggest threat for any severe storms. Stay tuned this afternoon for further updates on our homepage, through social media and on ABC 7 News at 5pm and 6pm.

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While the Atlantic Hurricane season is still two weeks away, today marks the beginning of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.  And, already things are starting to develop. 

Investigation 90

 
 The National Hurricane Center has identified a cluster of thunderstorms hundreds of miles south of the Mexican Coast as having the potential of developing into the first named storm of the season.  If so, it would be named Alvin.  Here's a complete list of hurricane names for 2013. (I always like looking to see if my name is on there, it never is!) This chart of forecast models show that if Alvin develops it should stay away from land. 

Computer Model Track

 
The large majority of hurricanes here travel from East to West or Northwest. The Eastern Pacific season on average is busier than the Atlantic season which can impact us here in D.C.  

Average Tropical Cyclones East Pacific

On average there are 15 named storms, 8 of them becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes (cat 3 or stronger).  We are expecting it to be a near average to slightly below average Eastern Pacific season in terms of numbers of cyclones.  One of the reasons for this has to do with the temperature of waters in the equatorial pacific. Notice they are slightly below average in blue.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomoly

We look to that El Nino phenomenon for clues.   El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the unusual warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. When temps are warm and winds are calm, it can make for a busy hurricane season in the Pacific. This year, we are in a "neutral" phase of El Nino and should stay that way through the summer, making for a trickier forecast.  More detailed ENSO info here. So, why should we care about this in D.C? The ocean and atmosphere are a continuum of currents and patterns. And, when it's warm in the Pacific, it is often cool in the Atlantic and vice versa.  With a near normal to below average season in the Pacific, we are seeing parts of the Atlantic warm up, especially off the coast of Africa.

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

 
 Notice the cooler temperatures hugging the East Coast of the U.S. where we have had a cool May.  It's also a bit cool in the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Water temperatures need to be 80 degrees to support the "fuel" needed for a hurricane. The Atlantic Season may very well end up a busy one as many hurricane experts are predicting. We are coming off three consecutive "busy" seasons with 19 named storms each of those years.  We'll talk and blog more about the Atlantic Season in the next few weeks.

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This is a follow-up blog to a story I had on our 11PM news Tuesday May 14.  You can see the actual story below but I wanted to expand a few things beyond 1 minute and 30 seconds. Here's the tease :>).  Do you live in a city?  Marshall Shepherd, a leader in the increasing important field of urban meteorology (and current President of the American Meteorological Society) writes in a recent book that by 2030, 80% of the world's population will live in an "urban environment"  So you or you children, do or likely will live, in a city.  Do you notice the city is warmer than the "countryside" or "rural area"?  Yes cities are warmer, especailly on hot summer nights.  It's called the urban heat island or UHI.  We can see it.

The concrete, buildings, streets, ashphalt absord heat in the day and just like a hot pot of water are slow to cool at night.  I think everyone living in a city, during a summer heat wave knows cities are hotter.  Is the city weather different than the "rural" weather?  I hope you think yes-at least on summer nights cities are warmer.  Also warmer on winter nights-which helps the heating bills.  OK is the "climate" (think average summer temperaturers) of the cities different?  Is the climate of the cities changing?  Yes, I know slipperly slope and not going there.  But let's just agree that on a small scale (let's call it a microclimate) the climate is changing.  So now what about summer thunderstorms?  Here is a series of radar images that Marshall Shepherd thinks shows were started in part by the Atlanta urban area in a northeast flow of unstable air.

 The story I did via Skype is with one of the leading researchers in urban meteorology Dr. Robert Bornstein.  His ideas about cities affecting thunderstorms came about by talking with NWS forecasters who observed thunderstorm lines that seemed to "split" as they moved into New York City.  He wonded why and thought that maybe cities can by either the heat island or the city structure/buildings can change  the motion or flow of thunderstorms or even lines of storms. 

  He set out to test his idea/theory by experiemts.  He and students made physical/mathematical simulations of the city and the atmopshere and found in some special cases thunderstorms do split around NYC. 

  Also his ideas that cities, as  Marshall Shepherd has found in Atlanta, Georgia, under certain conditions may even be the starting point of individual storms.  And here  Washington-Baltimore area  may indeed change lines of thunderstorms in the Washington area as some researchers have suggested.  So here is the short story.  See what you think.  Are cities changing our weather?

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An unseasonably cool airmass will creep into the region Monday morning and hang around through Tuesday behind this weekend's cold front. Here is a reason why you should wait until mid-May to plant many of your flower beds or your garden: Areas of frost and potentially sub-freezing temperatures will be possible in parts of the area.

Forecast Surface Map Tuesday Morning (COD Models)

Here's the set up. High pressure will enter the region Monday and Tuesday making for clear skies and light winds. Temperatures aloft and humidity levels at the surface will also be quite low, allowing for the maximum potential for radiational cooling. At this point in time, the potential exists for portions of our area to see morning low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning in the 30's and possibly even 20's in the mountains.

Forecast lows Tuesday morning (WeatherBell Models)

This will allow for some areas to develop frost around the D.C. Metro and potentially freezing conditions along and west of the Blue Ridge through the Shenandoah Valley. I have introduced that beautifully hand-drawn blue line to denote the freezing line, with temperatures forecast to be at or below freezing along and west of the line. This model does show, however, temperatures in the mid 30's closer to D.C. and upper 30's closer to the Chesapeake Bay. D.C. itself may see lows closer to the 40 degree mark.

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The weather pattern across the D.C. area, and much of the East Coast, has been plagued by this pesky upper level low the couple of days.  Clouds, showers, and muggy conditions.  Today the metro region finally broke out into some sunshine, but with unstable conditions, heavy showers and thunderstorms developed.  Even though there was some very heavy rain and even reports of small hail, these storms did give way to some neat looking skies.  Check out this timelapse from the WeatherBug camera on top of our ABC7 studios in Arlington.

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After an absolutely gorgeous first weekend of May, the start of the work week weather took a turn in the opposite direction.  Unfortunately, for those of you not a fan of the grey skies and showers, this weather pattern is here to stay... at least for a good chunk of the work week.  So why the unsettled weather?  Let's explore.

Check out yesterday's satellite image.  Notice the big "swirl" from space.

GOES

I went ahead and drew the features that are present from this system.  The 'L' represents the area of low pressure that is spinning, counterclockwise, over the southeast US.  The blue arrows indicate the onshore, or easterly, flow bringing in Atlantic moisture to the mid-Atlantic.  Air circulates around the low in this counterclockwise fashion.

The low will track northeast over the coming days, but will be slow to do so.  Take a look at the upper level low from about 18,000 ft (500mb).  This is a simulation of where the low will be later this afternoon. 

NCEP

As the low tracks northeast, cloudy and damp weather will persist across the region.  It won't be a complete washout each day this week, but scattered showers will be possible through at least Thursday.  Check out the Weather Prediction Center's quantitative precipitation forecast through Thursday evening.  This forecast shows between 1 and 2 inches of rain over our region, with locally higher amounts over southwestern VA.

WPC

With moderate rain possible over an extended period of time, the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for parts of the Shenandoah valley through late tonight.  Remember, if you encounter standing water, never drive through it. The latest Flood Watch was extended north into Clarke, Frederick (VA), Hampshire and Mineral Counties as well.

By late Thursday, the low weakens its grip and gets caught back in the overall pattern.  Compare the 500mb heights in this forecast (below) for Thursday night to the same map shown above.  Notice there is a slight dip in the wave pattern, but nothing cut-off (like in the similar image a few graphics up). 

NCEP

For us, this means a less unsettled weather pattern.... sort of, for Friday at least. High temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees by the end of the week, which could initiate a few airmass thunderstorms to develop, but nothing widespread.  A cold front will then slide through this weekend bringing continued chances for showers but drier and slightly cooler air can be expected for early next week. 

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The National Mall will be flooded with pink on Saturday for the Susan G. Komen Global Race for the Cure, and some special students were recognized for their efforts this morning on Good Morning Washington. Kids of all ages from Green Acres School in North Bethesda, MD chatted about their efforts and success with the Race for the Cure while showing off their forecasting skills.  These kids along with 23 other schools helped raise $17K!

The School Spirit Challenge was a throw down to public and private K-12 schools in the Washington metropolitan area to create a team for the 2013 Global Race for the Cure. The Challenge was a strategy to grow K-12 academic teams to make for an unforgettable Race Day experience, and empower our kids to make a difference in their community. School team participation is a community commitment to:

· Raising awareness about breast cancer throughout the school community;
· Celebrating anyone in a school’s community who is or has battled breast cancer
· Helping students, faculty, and families learn, understand and overcome fears about breast cancer and its treatment; and
· Promoting this global outreach effort to end breast cancer as a life-threatening disease.

Check out energetic crowd and how much fun we had together in the clips below as we chat about the Challenge and the forecast.

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Spring is here and that means many of us are spending a lot more time outdoors.  We may have gotten out of the habit of applying sunscreen over the winter.  Here's a common conversation at my house:  "But Mom... it's not even sunny out. Why do I have to wear sunscreen?"  I admit it. My kids absolutely hate slathering on the thick white lotion that protects them from harmful ultra violet rays.  It's even a battle some days. But, I make them do it anyway, and we wear it year round.  Today is Melanoma Monday, as declared by the American Academy of Dermatology. They would like you to "Spot the Orange" and wear that color today to remind others to protect themselves. Did you know that skin cancer is the most common form of cancer?  And, it's highly preventable. Here's is today's forecast Ultra Violet Index. 

UV Forecast May 6th

 
 Wear sunscreen with UVA and UVB proction with an SPF of 30 or greater and apply it every few hours.  If at the beach, make sure it is waterproof.  On a day when the UV Index is "Extreme" it takes less than 15 minutes to get burned. Here is a chart to calculate sun exposure/burn times.  

Sun Exposure/Burn Times Chart

 
You can get your own personalized UV forecast by entering your zip code here.  The sun's rays are strongest from 10a until 2p.  Avoid prolonged exposure during this time.  Staying in the shade or taking shade "breaks" is recommended, so is wearing light weight long sleeves and pants if you're going to be in direct sun at length.  A hat can cover and protect your head and face. And sunglasses with UV protection are a must.  Remember white sandy beaches and water reflect the rays and can double your exposure.  Memorial Day weekend is just a few weeks away. Check out the average UV Index for May.

Average May Ultra Violet Index

 
  Did I mention that sun damage makes you look OLD?  Ever heard of sun spots? Sun damage in your younger years can translate to darker discoloration of your skin. Check out this image from the Mayo Clinic. 

Photo of Sun Damage from The Mayo Clinic

 
 Not a lot of sun expected until Friday in the D.C. area.  Make sure you pull out the sunscreen now, and check if its expired.  If so, time to freshen up and stay sun safe.

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I remember, as a young boy, watching the night sky to see the first artifical satellite call "Sputnik" in 1957.  Our world and our ability to observe our world has changed tremendously in since that small object was launched into orbit around the earth.  Here is a wonderful, beautiful video from NASA that takes us on a journey above our home.  Earth observations from satellites have made incredible advances in the 56 years since I saw the first satellite.  Enjoy.

Here is the link to watch the video in higher resolution.

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Seventy-four tornadoes were spawned on May 3, 1999 including a F5 tornado which struck the suburbs of Oklahoma City. This tornado tracked along a 38-mile path for nearly an hour and a half from Chickasha through south Oklahoma City and the suburbs of Bridge Creek, Newcastle, Moore, Midwest City and Del City. The outbreak caused 46 deaths, 800 injuries, nearly 8000 homes damaged or destroyed and over $1.5 billion in damages.

Meteorologist Devon Lucie here.  I was a meteorology student at the University of Oklahoma that day, and it's one I'll never forget.  At that time, the school of meteorology was located on the top floor of Sarkeys Energy Center at the Northeast end of the campus in Norman, OK, which you can see on the map, is just southeast of the track of the infamous tornado. 

I was on the 12th floor in a room with other students when I witnessed the tell-tale flashes of power lines and transformers failing as the tornado ripped through Moore.  The massive wedge tornado also was crossing over I-35 at that time where a number of people lost their lives while trying to shelter from the twister during rush hour.  The highest wind speed recorded by the Doppler on Wheels found winds of 298mph, which is still the highest wind speed ever recorded on the planet.  It was an awesome, yet horrfying sight... one I never hope to repeat again. 

Outbreak Map from NWS Norman, OK

NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory webpage on the Outbreak here

NOAA National Weather Service Norman, OK webpage on the Outbreak here

Meteorological Summary of the Event Here

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NASA's Cassini-Huygens mission to Saturn began on October 15, 1997 when the spaceship launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida.  By June 30, 2004, Cassini entered orbit around Saturn to further explore the ringed planet. 

The first mission ended in 2008, but was then was extended - the Cassini Equinox mission - through September 2010.  That mission, too, was extended and the Cassini Solstice mission will continue through September 2017.  

"We're looking at a string of remarkable discoveries -- about Saturn's magnificent rings, its amazing moons, its dynamic magnetosphere and about Titan's surface and atmosphere," says Dr. Linda Spilker, Cassini project scientist. "Some of the mission highlights so far include discovering that Titan has Earth-like processes and that the small moon Enceladus has a hot-spot at its southern pole, jets on the surface that spew out ice crystals and evidence of liquid water beneath its surface."

Back in October 2012, Cassini captured a fantastic, rare image of the planet.  The spacecraft was perfectly positioned in front of Saturn with the sun directly behind the planet.  The result is a uniquely backlit image of Saturn.  What really stands out are Saturn's rings, which scientists have been studying closely, as well as the atmosphere phenomena. 

An image that was just recently released highlights the storms at Saturn's north pole.  The bright red swirl in the middle is a hurricane-like structure (described more below).  The yellow hexagonal feature surrounding the central vortex is the planet's jet stream.  The orange mini-swirls within the yellow colored jet are low-lying clouds.  The bright teal on the outside of image are Saturn's rings.  These are false-colored images, but really make the features pop.

Here's a tighter shot of the hurricane on Saturn.  The spinning vortex resembles a giant rose.  Scientists have learned the eye of the hurricane on Saturn is 20 times larger than the average size of a hurricane eye on Earth (1,250 miles wide on Saturn).  Scientists have also measured cloud speeds as fast as 330 miles per hours.

Keep updated with the Cassini mission through the NASA link. Here's a neat timeline that will also give you Cassini milestones from 1997 through the projected completion in September 2017.

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**Check out our own Adam Caskey covering the Shenandoah Apple Blossom Festival in Winchester live this morning for GMW here!!**

 Click here to "Fan" Lauryn on Facebook!

Here we go once again, the most wonderful time of the year! No, I am not talking about Christmas....I am speaking of the one and only Shenandoah Apple Blossom Festival just over the Blue Ridge Mountains in my hometown of Winchester, Virginia. I have attended every festival and parade since I was born and working on my 29th this year. The parade is always held the first weekend in May, the festival is in its 86th year. The first festival was held Saturday May 3rd, 1924 and was only a one-day celebration. Now the festival spans over a week and kicks off with the United Bank Bloomin’ Wine Festival then jumps into a series of over thirty events including a carnival, 10K race, dinners, dances, craft shows and two parades: The Firefighters Parade (originally called the Torch Light and the Mummers’ Parade that began in 1929—which is one of the nation’s largest parades of its kind) and the Grand Feature Parade, the main attraction.

Plenty of celebrities have made it to the Shenandoah Valley over the years as well including Val Kilmer, Mario Lopez, Jerry Rice, George Hamilton, Wayne Newton, Sean Astin, Dan Aykroyd, Chevy Chase, Al Roker, Adam West, Mickey Mantle, Martin Short, Bob Hope, Lucille Ball, President Gerald Ford (when his daughter was Queen Shenandoah in 1975), Elizabeth Taylor, Mary Tyler Moore, Rusty Wallace, Erik Estrada, Debbie Reynolds, Barry Sanders, John Riggins and Winchester’s own Patsy Cline (just to name a few).

Growing up with Apple Blossom has been a huge tradition for anybody living in the Winchester area. For me it has been additionally special considering I live and breathe Apple Blossom time every year, the first weekend in May. People decorate everything they can think of in a splash of Pink and Green, the bleachers by my alma mater John Handley High School are built in less than a week where the "grand stands" reside and also the influx of people into the city just goes to show how tight-knit the Winchester community really is. The first Apple Blossom I remember is sitting at the Grand Stands. I was three (and yes the parade was a little long for me)--however, I made a game out of seeing how many pooper scoopers would come down the street in front of the grand stand. Now and days more sophisticated pooper scoopers have taken suit, however, back in the day it was a hard day's work with just a shovel and a bucket. I guess this is why I was drawn to them...thus, the pooper scooper being my absolute favorite feature in the parade....and it is to this day! As my great-grandmother claims below...it is quite the "parade necessity."

Not only has this become a tradition for me, it is embedded through the roots of my family. I think since this whole shebang has started, a member of each generation in my family has been lucky enough to somehow be involved with the festival. This you can see from the picture below in which my grandfather, James Morgan, was asked to escort Miss Virginia around for the duration of the festival--how lucky.

However, growing up in the City of Winchester and attending John Handley High School I was fortunate enough to "become" friends with kids who lived on the parade route....believe you me, they are still my friends. I was smart and started really early--I met my first "Apple Blossom buddy" in kindergarten at Frederick Douglass Elementary School. This is how the conversation went in kindergarten class: "Hey Ashely, my name is Lauryn. Do you wanna play Lincoln logs or play with bottle caps?" "Oh, you live on the parade route? " "Hmmmm, can I come over for Apple Blossom parade?"  Thank goodness her parents still live in the same house they did when I was in kindergarten, which is a historical house on the parade route. This is how the conversation goes now: "Hey Ashley, your house for Apple Blossom?" "Is your mom making those mini chicken salad sandwiches?" "You mom better be making the chicken salad sandwiches, I'm only coming if she is making mini chicken salad sandwiches."

 (Ashley, picture below in the middle still continues to be one of my best friends--parade house or not).

 
I was quite the lucky girl when I was able to honor Queen Katherine Desiree Luckinbill as one of her Princesses for the 75th Anniversary Apple Blossom Festival. She was the granddaughter of Lucille Ball and Desi Arnez.. Lucille Ball served as Grand Marshall for the Apple Blossom Festival in the 60's so it was such an honor to have a Queen that continued a wonderful family held tradition. I was a freshman in college when I was able to do such a special thing. However, I didn't do it alone....3 of my best friends and 7 other friends I had were ALL in the court that some year!

Check out this year's celebrities here! Happy bloom to all!

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Happy May Day everyone.  The month known for blooming flowers after April showers is upon us.  When I think about the month of April, my mind was thinking "cool" just like March.  But, when I took a look at climate records, we were actually a bit on the plus side. The month ended up 2 degrees above average.  The 91 degree day on April 10th helped to skew us on the plus side.  15 days in April were above average and 14 days were below.  As we turn the calendar to the month of May, we are right on track.  

May Averages

The average high for May first is 71 degrees and we will be near that all week.  By the end of the month, we warm up with an average high of 80.  Longer days help bump up the temps this month. Here's a look at the sun on the horizon around 5:30 this morning.

WJLA Rooftop View at 5:30 a.m.

 Sunrise was officially at 6:10a.m. Today, we will get 13 hours and 51 minutes of sunshine with sunset after 8:00 P.M.  While April is known for it's showers, May actually gets more rain on average around 4" for the month.  In addition, it's time to start thinking about severe weather safety plans and rules.  May, June and July are the peak severe weather months in the Mid-Atlantic. The Stormwatch 7 team of meteorologists will always be here to help keep you safe when dangerous weather approaches.

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