We have all enjoyed the past few days of sunshine, comfortable temperatures, and low humidity, but when we get into these long stretches of dry weather, I start looking and hoping for rain.  Don't get me wrong, I don't want the sunshine go away, but at some point we'll need more rain.  As a matter of fact, we still need a lot of rain south of the metro area.

www.drought.unl.edu

A strong upper level ridge has dominated our weather pattern over the east coast for several days causing vast sunshine (not even a single cloud) and rising temps, which are 10 to 15 degrees above average, however, this ridge will breakdown this weekend and be replaced by a cut-off low.  The surface component to this system just formed this morning near Amarillo, TX and is expected to track northeast.  This system will not strengthen as it will become vertically stacked rather quickly, but it will give us as least a slight chance of rain late Saturday into Sunday.

I have been watching as the computer guidance has handled the progression of the low and especially its upper level components.  The upper level feature will become cut-off from the overall upper level flow, so it will slowly meander it's way northeast from the mid section of the U.S.  Earlier this week it looked as though the cut-off low would plant itself directly over the DC area causing a rainy weekend and cooler temps, but now guidance indicates it having a good chance of staying northwest of our area and barely brushing the DC area.  Sometimes these cut-off lows sit and spin for days on end causing scattered showers and cool temps until a "kicker" opens the flow and pushes the low out, but that shouldn't be the case with this system as it will slowly wander into New England and continually weaken. 

Overall, if you're looking for rain, as I know some of you are, our chances look slim this weekend, and I think the best chance will be from a few isolated thundershowers late Saturday night and on Sunday.  Weak upper level energy in the trough axis will likely swing overhead Saturday night introducing added clouds and the chance of a few spotty, light showers.  Additionally, forecast soundings are pointing towards a destabilization of our atmosphere on Sunday, which could lead to isolated thundershowers, but the coverage should be minimal within our viewing area.  Overall, as of now (Thursday morning), I'm not anticipating more than a few hit-or-miss showers Saturday night into Sunday with most of the action far southwest of the metro area, and I think a widespread soaker is very unlikely.  I am expecting increased cloud cover on Sunday, but a few peeks of sun should keep high temps near 70. 

To water, or not to water??  Go ahead and water.