In my opinion the week couldn't have started on a better note weather-wise.  High pressure was firmly in control allowing for lots of sunshine, comfy daytime highs in the low to mid 70's, and dew points that were in the upper 30's to low 40's.   

Dew points are one of the best and easiest ways of determining comfort factor.   The chart below gives you a good rule of thumb to go by.     

• <50 =  Quite Dry
• 50-55 = Comfortable
• 56-60 = Pleasant
• 61-65 = Slightly Humid
• 66-70 =  Humid
• 71-75 = Very Humid
• > 75 Opressive

Within 24 hours the atmosphere changed dramatically with dew points jumping back into the mid 60’s and temperatures soaring to around 90 by Tuesday afternoon.   By later in the day there was enough instability to support the development of disorganized showers and storms.

Today the dynamic setup looks even more conducive to produce more organized storm activity. Daytime heating, upper level energy, and a cold front positioned nearly overhead will be the main players in convective development.   With all this in mind the NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) has the region under a slight risk for severe storms. CLICK HERE for see today’s convective outlook. 

The main threat with these storms will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, hail, and strong gusty winds.  

Furthermore, the soil is already saturated from the recent rains and it will only take an inch to an inch and a half of moisture in a short period of time to cause flash flooding. Because of this threat the NWS (National Weather Service) placed much of the region under a FLASH FLOOD WATCH from noon until late tonight. The Counties shaded in bright green on the map below are included in that watch.

It is likely that a good chunk of the region will also be placed under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. CLICK HERE to see the current convective watches.

~ Meteorologist Chris Naille