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Monday October 15, 2007 at 3:57 pm
Taking a Quick Peek at the Winter
posted by Alex Liggitt


What will this winter be like?

This is a question that has been coming up more and more frequently over the past couple weeks.  Well after doing a little observing and a tad of research, I think I have been able to come up with a general idea of our winter climate pattern.  The first place I wanted to look was the El Nino - Southern Oscillation webpage through NOAA as El Nino and La Nina have vast effects on the United States.  La Nina appears to be the contender for the winter months as we go further into a weak and eventually moderate event.

La Nina causes the pattern to change significantly for the U.S., usually making for warmer than average temperatures throughout much of the country, with wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley regions, and drier weather along the southeast coastline as well as the southern plains.  This is also the going forecast from NOAA as they put out their 2007-2008 Winter Outlook.  http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071009_outlook.html

Knowing that we are going into a period of La Nina conditions, I wanted to take a look at winters in the past 50 years to maybe give an estimate of what to expect.  What I found was that there have been about 17 La Nina events in the past 50 years, with snowfall averaging just below the 30-year normal at 12.4" at Reagan (15.2" 30-yr Normal) and 19.11" at Dulles (21.2" 30-yr Normal).  This leads me to believe that this winter will be somewhat near normal for snowfall if not a touch below average.

We did receive one big snow year and another puny snow year that I omitted as outliers, with 2.2" - 9.1" falling in 1975-1976, and 46" - 62" falling back in 95-96 associated with the Blizzard of 96'.  This last fact worries me a little, as we haven't had a significant snowstorm in some time.  I am not going to go out on a limb just yet as to say this will be our year, as forecasts for something of that magnitude will only be possible a week or possibly two in advance.

Our weather team will continue to look ahead to this winter, as our Winter Weather Special is usually made during November.  We will be sure to let you know the date and time with plenty of notice so you can watch and see our thoughts for this upcoming winter season.  

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