It would be number 2. People would think it would be 1, but it's actually too much covered by clouds.
I am thinking #1, as I was in Annapolis Saturday evening and that is what the sunset looked like in Annapolis on Saturday.
I think it's number 4
It's #1. The sun is higher in the sky, and the cloud formation further away. In #2 the sun is lower and the cloud formation has moved further east toward the camera.