(Sports Network) - Navy has posted back-to-back eight-win
seasons, taking over the reins as the number one independent in the country.
However, that will change this year as Notre Dame has a great shot of pulling
off its third double-digit win season this decade.


PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

3) ARMY - New head coach Rich Ellerson brings the triple-option attack back to
West Point as the Black Knights look to win four games for the first time
since '05. They are 2-9 ATS as home underdogs the last four years.

Offense - Army prepared itself for the option last season by running the ball
83% of the time after going for 51% in '07. However, the cupboard is a bit
more bare without Collin Mooney, who broke the school's all-time record for
rushing yards in a season. On the other hand, freshman Trent Steelman has been
a revelation at quarterback and the offense has a chance to outdo last year's
14.8 points per game average.

Defense - The defense allowed just four offensive first quarter TDs the entire
season, and just two in the final 11 games. The Black Knights had their finest
run "D" this decade giving up only 145 ypg on 4.0 ypc, and they knocked off
almost a TD off their scoring totals allowing just 23.7 ppg. Look for even
better numbers this season.

Outlook - Army is an amazing -42 in turnover margin the last three years, and
-91 since '01. If the new coaching staff can help turn the tide in that
department, the Black Knights have a chance to top last year's three-win
season, since there are eight winnable games on the schedule.

2) NAVY - The Midshipmen reached the postseason for the sixth consecutive
season last year after just one bowl trip from '82 through '02. They are only
4-9 ATS as home favorites the last four years.

Offense - Navy is 31-3 in its last 34 games when scoring first. However,
opposing teams could get the jump on the Midshipmen this year as the Naval
Academy loses its top two quarterbacks and four of the top five leading
rushers. Third-string QB Ricky Dobbs does have experience under center as he
led the team in rushing against SMU and then lifted the club to victory over
Temple in the school's largest fourth-quarter comeback ever.

Defense - In last year's preview, I mentioned that Navy would have one of the
most improved defenses in all of college football, and they did just that with
the number one turnaround in the nation from 36.4 ppg down to 22. The
defensive line took a hit earlier this month when tackle Nate Frazier (nine
tackles for loss) was dismissed from the team but this is still an experienced
group that will hold its own throughout the season.

Outlook - The schedule is a bit harder than last year's with eight bowl teams
instead of four. Still, this club is capable of a 7-6 mark and a seventh
straight bowl appearance.

1) NOTRE DAME - A lot of folks are down on Charlie Weis but the Irish have
actually played up to their abilities the last two years given the talent
level on the squad. Moreover, the team had to deal with 28 lettermen lost each
season. Notre Dame is 7-13 ATS as a home favorite under Weis.

Offense - The Irish bring back 10 starters to a unit that improved from 16 ppg
to 25. Jimmy Clausen completed 61% of his passes for over 3,000 yards and 25
TDs, and the o-line allowed only 22 sacks compared to 58 in '07. Upperclassmen
dominate the starting lineup for the first time in years so look for a major
upswing in production, just as the team did in Brady Quinn's junior year when
the Irish improved from 24 ppg to 37.

Defense - Last year's defense was on the field for 10 fewer plays per game
(compared to '07) and the scoring total was cut from 29 ppg to 22. On the
other hand, the opponents the team faced last season left a lot to be desired.
The run defense has allowed 4.0 yards per carry over the last four years (4.1
in '09) but switching to a 4-3 should help.

Outlook - All the pieces are in place for a phenomenal year. Whether the Irish
can win all 12 regular season games is another question but 10 victories
should have all the Notre Dame faithful on cloud nine.


DON'T BE LEFT IN THE COLD

Every year there are teams that turn their image completely around. Last
season, Rice and Minnesota had breakthrough campaigns winning six more regular
season games than the year before. Which clubs will come close to matching
those amazing achievements in '09? The top six candidates are: Illinois (5-7),
Ohio (4-8), Notre Dame (6-6), Baylor (4-8), UCF (4-8) and UTEP (5-7).

Eight other clubs that have a solid chance to improve are: Toledo (3-9), Army
(3-9), Nevada (7-5), San Diego State (2-10), Washington (0-12), Clemson (7-5),
Iowa State (2-10), and Indiana (3-9).

Teams that will be better against the spread are: Fresno State (2-11), Indiana
(2-9), Nevada (5-7), Washington (1-11), Clemson (4-7), Illinois (4-7) and
Auburn (2-9).

There are also some squads that won't have a huge upswing in their SU or ATS
records but are much deeper and better-balanced than a year ago. They include:
Arizona, Stanford, Minnesota, UNLV, Texas A&M, Florida International, Purdue,
Arkansas, Utah State, East Carolina and San Jose State.

Nine clubs that should take a step back in '09 are: Buffalo, Colorado State,
Missouri, Ball State, Northwestern, Rice, Hawaii, Boston College, and Utah.


THE FIRST JEFF FRANK TOP 10

Florida began last season at number one with a power rating of 101 and ended
the year in the same position with a 117.5 figure. The Gators begin the new
campaign on top once again but this time at 109, my highest opening number
ever.

Their BCS title partner, Oklahoma, is second at 105 so the likelihood of the
two powerhouses meeting for the second straight time is very high.

Florida is 2-1 to win National Championship, a huge drop off from last
season's 11-2 odds. I usually stay away from heavy favorites but the Gators
appear to be in a class by themselves. Some juicy long shots to keep an eye on
include Georgia (as high as 75-1 in some books), California (around 40-1) and
even West Virginia (100-1).

Now for the long awaited '09 preseason Top 10:

1) Florida, 109; 2) Oklahoma, 105; 3) Texas, 103; 4) USC, 102; 5) California,
97.5; 6) Ole Miss, 97; 7) Georgia, 96.5; 8) Alabama, 96; 9-T) Oklahoma State
and Penn State, 95.




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