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CFB: Don't Limit Opportunities for Success
posted 09/14/09 7:33 pm
ABC 7 News - CFB: Don't Limit Opportunities for Success
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(Sports Network) - One rule for a successful wagering
campaign is to never let a winning possibility pass by. Sticking with only
televised games or contests involving Top 25 clubs might work for some, but
those folks are missing out on ample opportunities for positive results.

Two conferences that are usually at the bottom of the barrel - the WAC and Sun
Belt - provided gamblers with an abundance of profits last weekend, and only
one of the 18 clubs is considered a viable National Championship contender.

Boise State, fresh off its dominating performance over Oregon, shut out Miami-
Ohio 48-0 for its second straight convincing victory. It was also the second
straight game the Redhawks failed to score a single point, as they were
obliterated by Kentucky last week, 42-0.

Fresno State, Boise's opponent this coming Friday night, also covered with its
three-point overtime loss at Wisconsin. Other WAC teams that garnered the ATS
victory were San Jose State (a 10-point loss to Utah while getting 13.5
points), Idaho (a 19-point loser at Washington as a 20.5-point underdog) and
the Hawaii Warriors who clubbed Washington State 38-20 as 1.5-point favorites.
The only conference failure came when Navy disposed of Louisiana Tech, 32-14,
as the 7.5-point choice.

The Sun Belt Conference was Saturday's other big winner, with four teams
covering as home underdogs. The league went 5-2 ATS overall. Ironically, the
only losers were the two squads expected to battle for the conference
championship. Troy was blown out at Florida while Arkansas State had zero
answers against Nebraska.


WHAT'S UP WITH THE BIG 12 AND PAC-10?

The Big 12 went 3-0 both SU and ATS against BCS opponents in week one, but
there were still a few failures as Oklahoma lost to BYU, Colorado was
embarrassed by Colorado State and Kansas State almost fell to Massachusetts.

Last week, the Buffaloes' season hit rock bottom with another pitiful
performance at Toledo, the Wildcats lost at Louisiana-Lafayette, Oklahoma
State allowed 21 fourth quarter points in its 45-35 defeat at the hands of
Houston, and Missouri almost lost to Bowling Green. Overall, the league went
3-6 ATS.

It will be interesting to see if the Big 12 can rebound, especially with tough
matchups looming as Oklahoma hosts Tulsa, Nebraska must go to Virginia Tech,
and Kansas State travels to UCLA.

The Pac-10 went 5-2 SU in its seven lined games this past Saturday but those
who wagered on the league's seven contests were not too happy on Sunday
morning as only one of the teams, UCLA, covered the spread.

The conference dominated opposing leagues in the bowls last season, going 5-0
SU and 4-1 ATS, but that masked a 5-9 regular season ATS record against other
BCS teams. This year the Pac-10 is 3-3 ATS vs. BCS clubs with all three losses
coming last week. Southern Cal, Oregon and Stanford all failed to cover and
that doesn't even include Oregon State's ATS loss vs. UNLV and Idaho's cover
against Washington.

The Pac-10 has four more BCS battles this week as the Beavers host Cincinnati,
Arizona takes on Iowa, California goes to Minnesota, and UCLA, without
quarterback Kevin Prince (broken jaw), comes back home to face an angry Kansas
State club.


WEEK TWO OBSERVATIONS

Idaho is 1-1 after two games but has looked solid in each contest. The Vandals
disposed of New Mexico State in their road opener and then outgained
Washington, 412-374, despite losing by 19 points. Remember, the Huskies could
have easily upset LSU the week before.

Iowa rebounded from its one-point win over Northern Iowa by demolishing Iowa
State, 35-3. However, 28 of the Hawkeyes' points came off turnovers and Ricky
Stanzi completed just 53% of his passes. Don't forget, the Cyclones defense
allowed opposing quarterbacks to hit on 67% of their throws last season.

Penn State will not win any awards when it comes to scheduling, but the
Nittany Lions certainly have not taken advantage of their opposition. They are
already 0-2 ATS and their top two running backs are averaging just 3.4 ypc in
two home games against Akron and Syracuse. Joe Paterno's club could be in for
a rude awakening in a couple of weeks when the Big Ten season begins.

Both North Carolina and Connecticut are in for long campaigns, especially if
they continue to struggle on the offensive side of the ball. The Tar Heels
still haven't found an answer at running back and the passing game was
ineffective once again. Luckily, the early reports on Zack Pianalto are good,
as the junior tight end will not have to undergo surgery on his right foot.

The situation is much worse at Connecticut. Not only is starting quarterback
Zach Fraser out for the next two games with an injured knee, the Huskies have
to travel to Baylor this coming Saturday to face one of the most underrated
teams in the country.

Colorado State is 2-0 but don't expect the Rams to gain their third victory
until October. They were lucky to escape with a win over Weber State as the
defense recovered a fumble inside its own 15-yard line with less than a minute
to go to hold off the Pirates, 24-23. The Rams did not complete a third-down
conversion in eight tries and were plus-two in the turnover department.
Colorado State looked solid in its win over Colorado but after the Buffaloes
were abused by Toledo last Friday, that opening night victory doesn't look
nearly as solid as it did one week ago.

Marshall, with its ATS loss to Virginia Tech, has now failed to cover its last
10 non-conference games. The Thundering Herd allowed over 600 total yards and
had to punt the ball away 10 times. They'll host Bowling Green this Saturday.

Here's a list of teams that were supposed to be dreadful this season and are
even worse than expected: Maryland, New Mexico, Rice, Tulane, Memphis,
Marshall, Ball State and Miami-Ohio. Six squads that still need a ton of help:
Colorado, Kansas State, Oregon, UTEP, Ohio and Troy. On the other side,
Michigan, Purdue, North Texas and Navy have been healthy surprises.


THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 10

The top seven remains unchanged but there was quite a lot of movement at the
bottom with Oklahoma State and Notre Dame falling fast after losing to Houston
and Michigan, respectively.

1) Florida, 111; 2) USC, 104.5; 3) Texas, 103; 4) Oklahoma, 102; 5)
California, 100; 6) Ole Miss, 98.5; 7) Alabama, 97; 8) Boise State, 96.5; 9)
Virginia Tech, 95; 10-T) Nebraska and Texas Tech, 94.5




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