(Sports Network) - Last weekend's column focused on the
hype surrounding Miami-Florida's 2-0 start. It seemed as if the entire world
was buying into the 'Canes propaganda machine, especially since the betting
public had jumped all over the bandwagon making them a 2.5-point favorite
after Virginia Tech opened as the two-point choice.

Everyone knows by now how the contest played out. The Hokies held Miami to
just 209 total yards in the 31-7 home win. The rainy weather certainly didn't
help Jacory Harris, who came into the game with a 184 QB rating. The first-
year starter competed only 9-of-25 passes for 150 yards with zero touchdowns
and one interception.

The Virginia Tech-Miami battle wasn't the lone game the betting public had
trouble figuring out. There were 12 other contests this weekend with a three-
point or greater differential from the opening line, and the team that was
getting all the late money covered just four of those games.

Moreover, there were five clubs that opened as underdogs but became favorites
after the public jumped all over them. All five lost the game outright,
beginning with the aforementioned Miami Hurricanes.

Rutgers opened as the 2.5-point favorite and Maryland ended up as the betting
choice by one. The Scarlet Knights blew the Terrapins away by 21 points.

Toledo began as the three-point favorite over Florida International but the
Golden Panthers were made the one-point choice. The Rockets rebounded from the
drubbing they received from Ohio State to win by 10.

North Carolina State opened as the 1.5-point favorite and ended as the one-
point underdog in its 38-31 win over the Panthers.

The fifth game took place in the Pacific Northwest, where Oregon State hosted
Arizona.

The Wildcats opened as 2.5-point favorites at Reser Stadium despite losing
nine of the last 10 games in the series. The public jumped all over the
Beavers, who ended up favored by three. Why the sudden change?

Maybe it was Arizona's loss to Iowa the week before, a game in which the
Wildcats recorded just eight first downs. Or it could have been due to the
change at quarterback, where Nick Foles took over for the Matt Scott. Either
way, there was nothing to suggest Oregon State was ready to turn things around
from its miserable start.

Portland State compiled 351 total yards in the Beavers' first game, a 34-7
victory. Moreover, they failed to record a single sack in the contest even
though the Vikings threw the ball 41 times.

The following week Oregon State needed a field goal with seven seconds left to
defeat UNLV, and then came up short at home against Cincinnati. In those two
FBS games, the offensive line allowed eight sacks while the defense came up
with only two.

Arizona prevailed 37-32 this past Saturday even without star running back Nic
Grigsby, who left the game early in the first quarter due to injury. Nick
Foles was brilliant in his first collegiate start with three touchdown passes
and zero interceptions. Furthermore, the Beavers defense did not record a
single sack. Conversely, Sean Canfield was picked off twice and Oregon State's
offensive line was a mess once again allowing five sacks.

Don't expect a quick turnaround for the Beavers this Saturday, when they go to
Tempe to take on an Arizona State team that gained a ton of confidence
matching strides with Georgia before losing on a last second field goal.


GETTING A HANDLE ON LOW SPREADS

A lot of bettors have problems figuring out which team to back when the line
is four points or fewer.

For the most part, home teams receive anywhere between two to five points but
when looking at the numbers from the '09 season, it doesn't really matter
which team (home or road) is favored. Just play the underdog.

There have been 22 occasions this year when the home team has been the slight
betting choice and the underdog has covered 13 times for a 59% winning
percentage. Take out week two, when the favorite went 3-0, and the winning
percentage for the 'dogs jumps to 68%. Last Saturday, the 12 home squads that
gave four points or less went 4-8 ATS.

How has the road team fared when favored by four or less? Terribly. The
favorite is covering at a 28% clip, covering just five of 18 games. In
addition, the underdog won all five games outright this past weekend.


WEEK THREE OBSERVATIONS

It was a week of upsets beginning with Ole Miss falling on the road at South
Carolina, 16-10. The dominoes kept falling on Saturday when California, Penn
State and Miami-Florida all were defeated. Near-misses included LSU (a four-
point win at Mississippi State) and Michigan (a three-point home win over
Indiana).

With conference games becoming the norm as the season moves into its fifth
week, pay close attention to the underdogs, especially when they're at home.

Speaking of LSU, the Tigers are currently ranked fourth in both the AP and USA
Today Polls despite posting three unimpressive early season victories in their
four games. They could have easily fallen last Saturday to Mississippi State,
but thanks to safety Chad Jones' prevention of the Bulldogs' would-be game-
winning touchdown on a huge third-and-goal play, they moved from the seventh
spot up to number four.

Lost amid their usual success is how they consistently fail to cover the
spread. The Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 regular season contests,
including six straight SEC battles. In addition, number-one ranked Florida
comes to Baton Rouge in two weeks, so it's not a stretch to say that LSU could
be the next Top-Five team to crumble when Georgia hosts the Tigers this
Saturday.

Miami-Ohio needed a victory in the worst way after getting outscored 138-26 in
three losses this season. They actually had the early 3-0 lead (their first of
the season) at Kent State but fell behind 26-16 heading into the final stanza.
Those brave souls who wagered on Miami plus the seven were hoping for the push
when the RedHawks cut the deficit to seven with a field goal in the fourth
quarter. However, the ATS tie was broken late in the game when the Golden
Flashes put up three points of their own to win by 10.

I bring this game up to show how bad teams can sometimes play their hearts out
and still fail to cover. Miami outgained Kent State, 552 to 250, while
recording 26 first downs to 13. Unfortunately, when a team turns the ball over
five times more than the opposition, it's almost impossible to win the game.


THE AP POLL CURSE

Last week I pointed out how hard it is for teams to cover the following week
after moving up at least eight spots in the AP Poll. Miami became the 11th BCS
squad (of 13) not to cover by falling to Virginia Tech as a 2.5-point
favorite. This week, two more clubs will attempt to reverse the trend, as Iowa
and Oregon are heavy favorites vs. Arkansas State and Washington State,
respectively. The two dogs look like two very live plays.


THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 10

Just in case anyone is confused over these rankings, the Top 10 list is not a
reflection of a given team's wins and losses. It's a guide in predicting
spreads for the upcoming week.

Florida remains at number one but the rest of the list has dramatically
changed. Texas finally put four consistent quarters together in its thrashing
of UTEP to move ahead of Oklahoma, while California and Ole Miss fall a few
notches after both clubs were upset on the road in conference play. Here are
the new Top 10 rankings after week four:

1) Florida, 110; 2) Texas, 105.5; 3) Oklahoma, 105; 4) Alabama, 100; 5) Boise
State, 99.5; 6-T) Ohio State and USC, 98.5; 8) Nebraska, 98; 9) California,
97.5; 10-T) Virginia Tech and Ole Miss, 97

Knocking on the door are Iowa at 96.5 and TCU at 95.


TWO-STAR PLAY ON THURSDAY

Colorado goes into Morgantown to take on West Virginia in a game in which the
Mountaineers are favored by over two touchdowns. Bill Stewart's club is
certainly not playing like a team ready to dominate with 10 turnovers and 61
points allowed to Auburn and East Carolina the last two games.

Colorado came out of the gate very flat against Colorado State in their home
opener and then had zero chance at Toledo on a very short week. The Buffaloes
got their act together by shutting out Wyoming in week three and they come
into this game more confident than ever. Don't be surprised when they upset
West Virginia for the second straight time after last year's 17-14 overtime
home win.

Take Colorado plus the points.




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