(Sports Network) - California will be facing a challenge
unlike any other in the Jeff Tedford era this week, having to rebound off the
school's worst loss in eight years.

The Golden Bears went into Eugene, Oregon last Saturday favored by 5.5 points
over the Ducks and walked out of Autzen Stadium on the wrong end of a 42-3
rout.

Oregon dominated every facet of the game piling up 524 total yards while
holding the Bears to merely 207. Furthermore, Heisman Trophy hopeful Jahvid
Best ran for just 55 yards after hitting paydirt five times the week before at
Minnesota.

It is obvious California was riding the wave of its number-six ranking heading
into the game. With the huge contest vs. Southern Cal on the horizon, along
with the return to the west coast from Minnesota, a loss at Oregon was
certainly not out of the question. Remember, the Ducks were home for the third
straight week after their one and only road tilt at Boise State back on
September 3.

The Bears are now 6-12 both SU and ATS in their last 18 road games. On the
other hand, they are 18-2 SU and 13-7 ATS in their last 20 lined home
contests.
The only two SU losses came by three points to Oregon State and by seven vs.
USC in '07, a year they finished 6-6 in the regular season.

Can Cal turn things around in one week? There's no reason to believe otherwise
even with the Trojans making their way to Berkeley. The Golden Bears shrugged
off two road losses last year and returned home a winner the following week
both times: 42-7 over Colorado State and 41-20 over UCLA.

Southern Cal is a different breed than the Rams or Bruins but this year is
different. The Trojans outscored Washington and Washington State 125-0 a
season
ago, and this year they won both games by a combined total of 40-22. Moreover,
they rocked Ohio State in '08 by a 35-3 count, and just a few weeks ago they
needed a touchdown on their final drive to get the victory.

Their defense, which was spectacular last season, was the main question mark
heading into this year with only three returning starters. Nevertheless, the
unit has been up to the challenge allowing an average of just 10 points per
game.

The problem area has been an offense that is averaging just 19 ppg in the last
three games. Sustaining long drives has been a major problem all year for the
Trojans as evidenced by their 25 percent effectiveness on third-downs, good
for 114th in the nation. And even though they defeated Washington State last
week by 21 points (as a 45-point favorite), their first three scoring drives
consisted of a grand total of six plays.

USC is 55th in the country in scoring and 67th in passing, unheard of numbers
in the Pete Carroll era. In addition, the Trojans have committed 21 penalties
for 190 yards the last two weeks while turning the ball over five times.

Take California plus the points in the first of two Five-Star plays.

The other top selection comes out of the Mid-American Conference.

Western Michigan travels to Northern Illinois in a battle of two Western
Division squads. The former began the season slowly falling on the road to
Michigan and Indiana, but bounced back against the likes of Miami-Ohio and
Hofstra.

The latter gave Wisconsin a run for its money in Madison despite losing by
eight, and then ripped off a pair of victories over Western Illinois and
Purdue. The Huskies then came back down to earth with a home loss to Idaho.

Let's analyze NIU's previous games a little bit further.

Jerry Kill's club rallied late in its opener vs. Wisconsin to make the final
score appear better than it was. The Badgers led 28-6 after three quarters
while outgaining the Huskies by over 150 yards for the entire game. Moreover,
Wisconsin was dealing with multiple injuries to its offensive line and NIU did
not record a single sack while allowing Scott Tolzien to complete 15-of-20
passes for 257 yards in his first career start.

The Huskies next FBS win looked like a spectacular effort on the surface, but
Purdue was primed for a letdown after coming back home from a hard-fought game
at Oregon. Also, the Boilermakers annual clash with Notre Dame was scheduled
for the following week.

Last Saturday, the Huskies trailed Idaho by 18 early in the fourth before
finishing out with a pair of touchdowns making the final deficit only three
points. The Vandals compiled 477 yards of total offense, including 270 through
the air by an experienced quarterback in Nathan Enderle.

This week, the Huskies have to face another solid QB in Tim Hiller, who has
completed 66 percent of his passes this season for over 1,000 yards. The
senior has also led the Broncos to two straight wins over NIU.

Take Western Michigan plus the points.

AFTER FOUR WEEKS

I went 9-5 last week for a four-week total of 38-31, good for 55 percent. The
sole Five-Star play proved victorious evening that mark at 2-2, while the
Three-Star selections went 4-2 improving that total to 14-13.

The Two-Star plays are now 13-9 after a 2-1 week and the One-Star picks are a
combined 9-7 after a 2-2 weekend.

As a reminder, the Five-Star plays are when my Power Plays and Key Plays
coincide. The Three-Star selections comprise the rest of my Power Plays: games
where there's at least a five-point differential between my line and the
actual line. The Two-Star picks are the remaining Key Plays and the One-Star
plays are the secondary selections.

THREE-STAR PLAYS

Nine plays in this category highlight week five. The choices are: Central
Michigan (at Buffalo), Illinois (vs. Penn State), Washington State (at
Oregon), Eastern Michigan (vs. Temple), Florida International (at UL-Monroe),
UTEP (vs. Houston), Ohio State (vs. Indiana), Miami-Ohio (vs. Cincinnati) and
Iowa (vs. Arkansas State).

TWO-STAR SELECTIONS

UCLA is an underdog at Stanford despite a flawless 3-0 record. The Bruins have
also defeated the Cardinal the last five meetings. The Cardinal is coming off
a 20-point win over Washington last Saturday while UCLA was home preparing for
another victory over Jim Harbaugh's team.

Stanford boasts a powerful ground game behind Toby Gerhart, who's second in
the country in rushing with 516 yards. However, the Bruins are stout against
the run holding the opposition to just 74 ypg, with nine sacks. The secondary
also boasts eight interceptions so look for freshman quarterback Andrew Luck
to be rattled early and often.

The Bruins have shown great resolve early in the season winning all three
games, including a win at Tennessee and a "W" over Kansas State.

Kevin Craft, who got the nod vs. the Wildcats, was brilliant in last year's
battle with Stanford, throwing for 285 yards and two touchdowns, including the
game-winning score with just 10 seconds left. Expect a repeat performance as
the Bruins upset the Cardinal.

Take UCLA plus the points.

Virginia and North Carolina meet for the 114th time and the Tar Heels are the
heavy choice by close to two touchdowns.

North Carolina has hit paydirt just twice in its two games against BCS
opposition, averaging 211 total yards while converting only one of every four
third-down chances. It's true that both matchups were on the road and the Tar
Heels are back home vs. Virginia, but the Cavaliers have had plenty of rest
since losing a heartbreaker at Southern Miss on September 19.

Virginia is 0-3 on the season but the team is playing much better than the
record indicates. Even though the Cavaliers lost by 16 points to TCU, they
should a ton of improvement after getting roughed up in week one by William &
Mary. The following Saturday they led the Southern Miss by 17 midway through
the third quarter but allowed 20 unanswered points to lose by three.

Al Groh's club has won six of the last seven meetings, including two in a row
as underdogs.

Take Virginia plus the points.

Duke gets Virginia Tech at the right time, fresh off its big home win over
Miami-Florida. Expect a huge letdown as the Hokies head into Durham looking
for their ninth straight victory over the Blue Devils.

David Cutcliffe's club has taken a step back off last year's solid 4-8 season
but the Blue Devils put up a good fight at Kansas despite the 28-point loss.
The Jayhawks outgained them by less than 100 yards while recording only one
more first down.

Duke lost to Virginia Tech last year, 14-3, without Thaddeus Young, who sat
out due to injury. Zack Asack got the nod and completed only 2-of-9 passes for
20 yards. Look for more offense from the Blue Devils and another tight finish.

Take Duke plus the points.

The final Two-Star play is SMU plus the points at TCU

ONE-STAR PLAYS

The four One-Star selections are Mississippi State (vs. Georgia Tech),
Syracuse (vs. South Florida), Georgia (vs. LSU) and New Mexico State (at San
Diego State).






Copyright 2009 The Sports Network
All rights reserved

 Email To Friend