(Sports Network) - Florida, Alabama, Ohio State and Nebraska.
What do these four teams have in common? They were all victorious in huge
conference games two weeks ago. More importantly, all four failed to cover the
spread the following Saturday.

When the 2009 schedule was released, Florida did not have to circle many games,
as they were the team the rest of the country wanted to beat. Still, there were
a few important matchups on the schedule, namely the annual battles with
Tennessee and Georgia.

However, there would be one true road game to focus on at Baton Rouge against
an LSU team that had defeated the Gators the last two meetings at Tiger
Stadium.

Florida walked away with a 13-3 win in this season's contest but it was a much
tougher game than many had expected, even with Tim Tebow questionable for most
of the week.

Fast-forward to this past Saturday - a home date with Arkansas. The Gators were
favored by 24.5 points and played exactly like a team coming off a monstrous
emotional victory winning by just three points. Arkansas even had a chance to
take the lead late in the game but Alex Tejada missed a 38-yard field goal.

Another SEC team coming off a big game struggled this past Saturday.

Alabama played lights-out at Ole Miss on October 10 intercepting Jevan Snead
four times in the 22-3 win on October 10. How would the Crimson Tide respond
coming back home favored by 18 points against South Carolina?

For a hint, let's go back in time to see how Alabama has fared in these types
of games.

Week two of last season saw the Tide fail to cover the spread vs. Tulane after
completely obliterating Clemson, 34-10, at the Georgia Dome. The next big game
came vs. No. 3 Georgia last September 27, an 11-point SU win. Alabama defeated
Kentucky the following week but by only three as a 15-point favorite.

Nick Saban's crew rebounded nicely after winning an overtime battle at LSU in
early November to win and cover vs. Mississippi State. Nevertheless, the team
failed against Utah in the Sugar Bowl after playing Florida in the SEC
Championship game.

This year, the Crimson Tide took care of business vs. Virginia Tech in the
opener but for the second straight season, came up short ATS the following week
against Florida International. And this past Saturday was more of the same when
South Carolina was able to stay within the number at Bryant-Denny Stadium.


TWO MORE EXAMPLES

Let's go to the Big Ten where Ohio State and Wisconsin hooked up in Columbus,
OH in week six. The game featured one of the craziest results in college
football this season as the Buckeyes were able to win by 18 points despite
getting outgained by a two-to-one margin.

Ohio State went into West Lafayette this past Saturday against a team that was
coming off a heartbreak loss at Minnesota. Purdue racked up over 400 total
yards in that contest holding the Golden Gophers to just 281 but still lost by
15 points.

The Boilermakers continued turning the ball over vs. Ohio State with three
miscues, after committing nine the previous two games, and only led by two
points at the half. However, the Buckeyes were ill-prepared offensively for a
second straight week and came up eight points short as 12-point favorites.

The fourth team in this set of letdown losers came out of the Big 12 where
Nebraska was pummeled by Texas Tech. The Cornhuskers, coming off an important
Big 12 North victory over rival Missouri, were obviously riding too high
returning home against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech jumped out to a 21-3 lead
and coasted to a 31-10 victory as an 11-point underdog.


A YEAR-LONG TRADITION

This letdown trend is certainly not relegated to this past Saturday. There have
been other examples throughout the season that show it's an angle to seriously
look at each and every week.

Southern Cal defeated Ohio State in week two and then lost outright as a 20.5-
point favorite to Washington the following Saturday.

Two weeks later, there were two more matchups that each of the four teams had
circled on their respective calendars. Iowa and Penn State hooked up at Beaver
Stadium while Virginia Tech hosted Miami-Florida in a key ACC battle.

The Hawkeyes got the best of the Nittany Lions and ended up failing to cover
the spread the following game vs. Arkansas State. The Hokies obliterated the
Hurricanes in the rain at Lane Stadium but allowed almost 400 yards of offense
to Duke in an eight-point win as a 17-point favorite one week later.

Of the eight '09 games mentioned earlier, all eight winners came up empty
against the spread the following week. Another point to look at is that the
losing team went 5-2 ATS in its next game with LSU having yet to play after
losing to Florida in week six.

There will be four games to pay close attention to this weekend as Texas and
USC might be decent teams to bet against, while Oklahoma and Notre Dame could
be two clubs that warrant some attention despite the tough SU defeats.


WEDNESDAY'S TWO-STAR PLAY

Tulsa heads to Texas-El Paso for a Wednesday night match up at the Sun Bowl.

The Miners have had a lot of extra time to prepare for this contest as their
last game was back on October 10 at Memphis. The 15-point loss to the Tigers
was almost to be expected after the upset win over Houston.

On the other side, Tulsa is coming off a battle with Boise State, a game the
Golden Hurricane had circled on its calendar before the season started. Even
though Tulsa lost by just seven points, the offense gained just 155 total yards
over the final three quarters.

It is doubtful UTEP's defense will duplicate that type of defensive effort but
this is a game the players and coaches have been looking forward to since last
October 18 when the Golden Hurricane scored 35 unanswered points in a 77-35
rout. UTEP was outgained, 791-338, and allowed 36 first downs.

Take UTEP plus the points.


THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 10

The Top 10 list is not a reflection of a given team's win-loss record, but a
guide in predicting spreads for the upcoming week.

1) Florida, 107; 2) Texas, 105; 3) Oklahoma, 104; 4) Alabama, 102.5; 5) USC,
101.5; 6) Boise State, 99.5; 7-T) Virginia Tech and Texas Tech, 97.5; 9)
Oregon, 97; 10-T) TCU, Nebraska, California and Ole Miss, 96.5




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