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College Basketball Preview - Southeastern Conference
   posted 8:31 pm Mon November 03, 2008
- (Sports Network) - OUTLOOK: Every year, the SEC can be counted on to send a handful of teams to the NCAA Tournament, and that figures to be the case again in 2008-09. Bruce Pearl has turned Tennessee into a powerhouse, and the Vols appear to be the class of the league. The road to a title won't be easy, however, as opponents such as Florida and Alabama figure to pose the toughest competition. Both the Tide and Gators possess outstanding point guards who can take over a game. LSU, Kentucky and Vanderbilt appear to be a tier below those first three teams mentioned, but there is no question that the Tigers, Wildcats and Commodores have the talent in place to make a run at an NCAA Tournament bid. In fact, it would be surprising if two of those three squads didn't reach the Dance. Vanderbilt has emerged as a legitimate contender in the East, but the squad did lose its best player. The two Mississippi schools, Ole Miss and Mississippi State, figure to be mediocre by SEC standards, and the same can be said of South Carolina. The bottom portion of the league is made up of Georgia, Auburn and Arkansas, each of which will have trouble hanging with the elite.
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CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Tennessee

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: EAST DIVISION: 1. Tennessee, 2. Florida, 3. Kentucky, 4. Vanderbilt, 5. South Carolina, 6. Georgia

ABC 7 News myTAKE - What's Your Opinion? WEST DIVISION: 1. Alabama, 2. LSU, 3. Ole Miss, 4. Mississippi State, 5. Auburn, 6. Arkansas

TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:

EAST DIVISION:

TENNESSEE: Why is Tennessee our pick to win the SEC despite the loss of many of last season's best players. Well, the return of Tyler Smith and a top-10 recruiting class seems to be a good start. Smith can do it all on the floor, as the versatile forward scored 13.6 ppg last season to go along with 6.7 rpg. He will get even more looks with Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith and Ramar Smith gone. J.P. Prince has shown flashes of brilliance, and the tall guard will play a prominent role in the offense. Up front, Wayne Chism used his large frame to score 9.9 ppg a season ago, and it would be surprising if he didn't finish 2008-09 in double figures. Now to the freshmen, who are tremendously impressive. Scott Hopson is a scoring machine who will play the wing. If rookie center Philip Jurick can rebound or block shots even half as well as he did in high school, Tennessee will be unstoppable.

FLORIDA: The best player in the SEC calls Gainesville home. Nick Calathes can shoot, penetrate and dish with the best the college game has to offer. Last season as a freshman, Calathes posted 15.3 ppg and 6.1 apg, and the 6-6 standout has the ability to be a 20 ppg scorer. The hope is that fellow guard Jai Lucas is ready to step up his game at the offensive end, as he is more than capable of improving on the 8.5 ppg he posted as a freshman. Add steady guard Walter Hodge to the mix and Florida is loaded in the backcourt. Up front, Dan Werner is the leading returning rebounder, as he finished the 2007-08 campaign with 9.1 ppg and 6.4 rpg. Still, at 6-7, he needs some help. The hope is that one of the two 6-10 freshmen recruits, Kenny Kadji or Eloy Vargas, can provide an inside presence. Clearly, Billy Donovan has a wealth of talent to work with, and a return to the NCAA Tournament seems a certainty.

KENTUCKY: Billy Gillispie went 18-13 in his first season at the helm of the Kentucky program, not exactly what fans of the 'Cats expected. Still, it is important to remember that the team turned things around after a 5-6 start and finished second in the SEC East, earning Gillispie SEC Co-Coach of the Year Honors. There is reason to expect an improvement in year two, however, despite the losses of Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford, who combined to score 33.8 ppg of the team's 68.5 ppg a season ago. The man to watch is power forward Patrick Patterson, who posted 16.4 ppg and 7.7 rpg as a freshman. The 6-8 standout is an outstanding athlete and appears to be healthy after dealing with injury as a rookie. Jodie Meeks is a combo guard who can easily score as effectively as Bradley and Crawford did last season. Keep an eye on forward Perry Stevenson, as he may be ready to bust out.

VANDERBILT: There are so few legitimate centers with big-time ability in college basketball, so the Commodores know how fortunate they are to have Andrew Ogilvy on their roster. The 6-11 standout was outstanding as a freshman, posting 17.0 ppg and 6.7 rpg. with a year of experience under his belt, as well as the benefit of a conditioning program, Ogilvy figures to be the most dominant post performer in the contest. The question for Vandy is how much help will Ogilvy get from his supporting cast. The only other returning starter is Jermaine Beal, who scored 7.6 ppg to go along with 4.6 apg. Beal will be asked to score the ball more often, so expect him to be a double-digit performer. There is not a single senior on a roster that consists of only two juniors, so the Commodores may have to wait until next season to contend for the SEC title.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Darrin Horn takes over the reigns of the South Carolina program, and the fact that the team went 5-11 in conference play a year ago suggests that he has plenty of work to do. Fortunately, the Gamecocks have two outstanding returning guards in Zam Fredrick and Devan Downey. Let's start with Downey, who scored 18.4 ppg last season to go along with 5.4 apg. He is rather small at 5-9, but the junior is without question one of the finest backcourt performers in the SEC. Fredrick isn't much bigger at 6-0, but he posted 14.8 ppg and 3.2 apg a year ago. Dominique Archie and Mike Holmes are both solid performers who are capable of providing double figures in scoring up front. However, both players are just 6-7, and the Gamecocks clearly lack experienced size.

GEORGIA: Dennis Felton lost his two best players from last season's team that finished just 4-12 against conference competition. With that in mind, Georgia has plenty of work to do. The hope is that senior swingman Terrance Woodbury is ready to emerge as the go-to guy at the offensive end. Last season, Woodbury scored 11.0 ppg, and he certainly brings a great deal of versatility to the floor. The only other returning starter is Jeremy Price, a 6-8, 270- pound sophomore who posted 8.1 ppg as a rookie. Don't be surprised to see three or more freshmen play major minutes from day one. Felton loves his rookie class, and the freshmen will have to be outstanding just for Georgia to be competitive.

WEST DIVISION:

ALABAMA: Last season, Alabama finished 5-11 in SEC play, and two of the best players from that team are gone. So why are fans of the program optimistic about a turnaround? Well, largely because point guard Ronald Steele is back in the fold. Steele, a former All-American, missed last season because of surgery on both knees. He needs to prove that he is healthy and may start slowly, but he has the ability to elevate the level of play of everyone on the roster. Alonzo Gee averaged 14.5 ppg and 6.8 rpg a year ago, and he is a true difference-maker in the backcourt. Unfortunately for head coach Mark Gottfried, the frontcourt is rather unproven. Sure, returnee Demetrius Jemison and hyped freshman JaMychal Green have the talent to be special, but neither has proven anything at the collegiate level. Still, we will take the optimistic outlook. Expect Alabama to win the West, which is much weaker than the East.

LSU: The Tigers went just 13-18 last season, including 6-10 in conference, and Trent Johnson has been brought in to restore the program to prominence. Marcus Thornton is back in place after racking up 19.6 ppg and 5.6 rpg as a junior last season, and the 6-4 guard is never afraid to pull the trigger regardless of situation or location. Garrett Temple and Terry Martin are other experienced guards who need to elevate their games for the Tigers to contend with Alabama in the West. Up front, Tasmin Mitchell is the best of the returnees, but he missed the vast majority of last season with a torn ACL. Is he back to form? Only time will tell. The wild card for LSU is 6-11 senior center Chris Johnson, who is rail thin at 205 pounds. Johnson scored 11.6 ppg last season while pulling down 6.6 rpg, and he has a chance to be a big-time pivot.

OLE MISS: Although Ole Miss did go 24-11 overall last season, the team finished 7-9 in SEC play under Andy Kennedy. There were some key losses from that squad, but Kennedy also has some major contributors back in place. Chris Warren is just 5-10, but the explosive guard averaged 15.8 ppg and 4.5 apg a year ago. David Huertas and Eniel Polynice are both 6-5 guards who scored 10.7 ppg last season, and Polynice is a solid rebounder. The frontcourt is a major area of concern for the squad, as there is very little experience to draw on. Malcolm White scored just 2.2 ppg last season, but he will be expected to lead the charge. Others such as juco transfer DeAundre Cranston and big-time recruit Terrance Henry bring plenty of athleticism to the table, as well as 6-9 frames.

MISSISSIPPI STATE: Last season, Rick Stansbury guided his Bulldogs to a first- place finish in the West. So why are we predicting a considerable decline? Well, the loss of Charles Rhodes, Jamont Gordon and Ben Hansbrough may be impossible to overcome, as those three players accounted for 45.1 ppg and 18.2 rpg. As a result, a great deal of pressure falls on guard Barry Stewart and center Jarvis Varnado. Stewart scored 11.5 ppg last season on the strength of his three-point shooting, but he figures to get fewer open looks considering the departures. As for Varnado, he blocked a staggering 4.6 shots per contest in 2007-08. Now, however, he will need to be productive at the offensive end as well. There is only one senior on the roster for the Bulldogs, who figure to be much more competitive next season.

AUBURN: The Tigers underachieved last year, going 4-12 in SEC play. There is a significant amount of returning talent, but we are taking a wait and see approach with this group. Start up front with Korvotney Barber, who was outstanding before a broken hand ended his season. Now healed, Barber is back as a major factor in the paint. Rasheem Barrett scored 13.6 ppg in 2007-08, and Quantez Robertson is a versatile guard who posted 7.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.1 apg and 2.1 spg last season. Add DeWayne Reed to the mix and there is a wealth of talent in the backcourt. This team can play with anyone in the West, but it is up to coach Jeff Lebo to make that happen.

ARKANSAS: Patrick Beverley was expected to be the leader of the Razorbacks and one of the most explosive guards in the SEC this season. Unfortunately, it was announced in August that Beverley will not play for the team in 2008-09, and the school refused to elaborate on the situation. Without its best player, Arkansas is left to pick up the pieces. John Pelphrey is in just his second season as leader of the program, and he will have to rely on many new faces. Clearly, a repeat of the 9-7 SEC finish a year ago is out of the question. Stefan Welsh is the lone returning starter, but his 5.3 ppg aren't going to scare anyone. Rotnel Clarke is the best freshman prospect thanks to his deadly three-point shooting.





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