- (Sports Network) - Mark your calendars - Black Monday in the NFL is scheduled for December 29th. As a long Christmas weekend gives way to pre-New Year's euphoria, it is possible that roughly one-third of the league's coaching staffs will be turning over, with a purge of historical proportions a distinct possibility.

Already in 2008, three coaches - The Raiders' Lane Kiffin, Rams' Scott Linehan, and 49ers' Mike Nolan - have lost their jobs, and none of their successors looks like a long-term answer at this stage.

Tom Cable has watched as the Oakland offense has regressed back to the second Art Shell era. In St. Louis, whatever emotional well Jim Haslett was able to tap into during his first two games looks to have dried up. And, in San Francisco, Mike Singletary has already dropped his pants before his players, perhaps imitating Bay Area hero Barry Bonds awaiting an injection.

Unless something drastic happens, it looks like all three of the mid-season replacement shows will be canceled.

Elsewhere, we already know Seattle's Mike Holmgren is stepping down at the end of the year, with ex-Falcons coach Jim Mora set to take over unless he pulls a Petrino and takes a college job like the one at his alma mater, Washington.

In Indianapolis, Tony Dungy appears a 50-50 proposition to coach into 2009, with Jim Caldwell ready to play George Seifert to Dungy's Bill Walsh.

Then, there are the coaches on decidedly shaky ground.

We count eight that probably shouldn't sign the three-year lease on that garden apartment before January begins.

Let's look at the unlucky candidates for termination, ranking them in order of least-to-greatest likelihood of getting the pink-slip:

8. Mike Shanahan, Denver

The problem: The Broncos (5-4) are absolutely atrocious defensively, and the whole world knew they would be, save Shanahan, it seems. The offense has some terrific young stars like Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Eddie Royal, but has still turned the ball over too often. The fans in Denver are fed up with Shanahan's hubris, and his unilateral decision-making on personnel.

The silver lining: The Broncos are still leading arguably the weakest division in football, the AFC West, and could win it if they find a route to 9-7. Also, Shanahan's offensive scheme is the best thing about the team, so jettisoning him could be counterproductive.

Our recommendation: Shanahan has made some strange personnel decisions and coaching hires, but he knows offensive football and has won enough games (143 since 1995) to show he can coach. Keep him, but get a real GM and blow up the defense at the end of the year.



7. Wade Phillips, Dallas

The problem: Tabbed as a popular pick to win the Super Bowl prior to the season, the Cowboys (5-4) are instead in last place in the NFC East. Owner Jerry Jones has made no secret of the fact that he expects a Super Bowl appearance, and also looks ready to replace Phillips with offensive coordinator Jason Garrett if the team underachieves.

The silver lining: Quarterback Tony Romo is ready to return after a three-game absence due to a broken finger, and the Cowboys still have a ton of talent around him. No reason this team can't get to 10 wins and make the playoffs, and as the Giants showed last year, anything can happen if they do.

Our recommendation: Unless he wins the Super Bowl, Phillips needs to be put out of his misery by an owner who clearly isn't 100 percent behind him. Phillips deserves better, but he knew the drill when he signed on with Jones.



6. Herm Edwards, Kansas City

The problem: The Chiefs (1-8) are as bad as they've been since the Frank Gansz era in the late 80's, and after Sunday's 20-19 loss to the Chargers, are now 1-17 in their past 18 games dating back to last season. Youth is being served at way too many positions to expect this team to be consistently competitive, the defensive front seven is soft, and veterans like Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez have not provided much leadership.

The silver lining: The clouds look to be parting ever-so-slightly. The Chiefs have had a chance to win each of their past three games, quarterback Tyler Thigpen looks capable of becoming the reliable quarterback that Brodie Croyle never was, and the young secondary is on the verge of maturing as well.

Our recommendation: As long as the Chiefs continue to play hard for Edwards, he's worth hanging onto. Some serious personnel re-tooling will be needed in the offseason, but this team doesn't look all that far away from competing again soon.



5. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati

The problem: At no time this year have the Bengals (1-8) looked like a team. Most of the talented players seem to possess me-first attitudes, and Lewis either hasn't been interested or hasn't been successful in changing that mentality. Also, Lewis built his reputation on defense, and the Bengals haven't had a reliable defense since he's been on the job.

The silver lining: The Bengals started their second half with a win over the Jaguars...could that be a harbinger of more good things to come?

Our recommendation: Kudos to Lewis for winning some games in his six years with the Bengals, but being better than Bruce Coslet and David Shula is not something to hang your hat on. The message has grown stale, and it is time to part ways.



4. Norv Turner, San Diego

The problem: For a second straight year, the Chargers (4-5) have talent to burn but have been listless more often than not. Sunday's narrow win over an inferior Kansas City team was another case in point, as San Diego was well short of dominant despite badly needing its first win since Oct. 12th.

The silver lining: Given the weakness of the Broncos defense, the Chargers are still the team to beat in the division. Should they wake up as they did in the final six weeks of last season, there is still time to turn tail and make a Super Bowl push.

Our recommendation: Turner's mild-mannered demeanor seems to trickle down to his team. If things fail to improve considerably, Turner should be back in the job he is suited for...as someone's offensive coordinator.



3. Brad Childress, Minnesota

The problem: Where to begin? Childress' background is on offense, but the play-calling has been questionable and 37-year-old veteran quarterback Gus Frerotte isn't permitted to audibilize. The defense hasn't lived up to its preseason reputation either, and at least part of the blame for that has to rest with Childress as well. The Vikings are 5-4 and own a share of first place, but the fans almost universally dislike Childress.

The silver lining: The NFC North is up for grabs, and the Vikings have the talent to win it. That said, Childress is such a pariah that there are some Minnesota fans quietly hoping they don't.

Our recommendation: Childress' stubbornness has been his biggest weakness, and it is hard to imagine any team enjoying long-term success with him at the helm. Childress should have proven himself as an offensive coordinator (he didn't call plays while with the Eagles) before being given a head coaching job.



2. Romeo Crennel, Cleveland

The problem: The Browns looked primed for a big year after last year's 10-6 finish, but have fallen flat. At 3-6 after Thursday night's loss to the Broncos, they're pretty much done. Crennel also doesn't seem to have great control over his team, as players have griped at one another and feuded with management while the head coach has said little and mostly deferred to GM Phil Savage.

The silver lining: Quarterback Brady Quinn played well in his first start this past week. If he can continue to ascend, Crennel might be able to make a case for staying on as opposed to the Browns starting over with a new staff and new system.

Our recommendation: We think Crennel has the potential to be a good coach, but don't think it can happen in Cleveland. In the NFL, four straight years without a playoff berth generally means your time is up.



1. Rod Marinelli, Detroit

The problem: There is no such thing as a good 0-9, but if there were, the '08 Lions wouldn't be it. No, Detroit is 1-16 in its past 17 games because there isn't nearly enough talent, particulary on defense, which is supposed to be Marinelli's specialty. The ex-Marine and Vietnam vet has clearly been worn down by the experience of coaching the Lions, as he has now taken to berating reporters on a near-daily basis. At this point, Marinelli might not last until Black Monday.

The silver lining: Only seven games left.

Our recommendation: We would actually argue that Marinelli is the best coach the Lions have had since Bobby Ross, he's just not the miracle worker needed to raise this sunken ship. The Ford family needs to purge every person with fingerprints on the football operation, including Marinelli, and start over from scratch.





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