High pressure will bring plenty of sunshine to the Washington area and points south this extended holiday weekend. Even though temperatures will be well-below average in the 60s and 70s with gusty winds at times through the first half of the weekend, the sun angle is very high this time of the year. As a matter of fact, the weather will be so chilly and brisk across the region, it’ll be very easy to forget packing the sunblock but don’t!

The UV Index is forecast to increase this weekend to 7 to 8 across the Mid-Atlantic and get as high as 9 to 13 across the Southeast.

What do these numbers mean? A UV index from 7 and above means you can burn in 20 minutes or less (especially if you are fair skinned). An SPF sunscreen of 30 is highly recommended. The sun's rays are strongest between 10 am to 4 pm.

The worst combination is a wind burn (because northwest winds will be rather brisk this weekend in the Washington area) and a sunburn, so be careful when outside this holiday weekend!

For more on the consequences of sun exposure, click here. Have a safe and enjoyable weekend!

Check out the Delmarva Beach Resource Guide!

Delmarva Beaches Radar Loop

Saturday:

Partly Sunny, Windy and Cool

Temperatures: Mid 60s  Winds: NW 10-20 Gusts to 35 m.p.h.

Another day forward in the forecast and conditions seemed to have improved as far as rain and clouds but still poor as far as temperatures and winds. I don't think this will be a beach day with wind gusts to 35 mph and sustained winds around 10 to 20 mph. This could lead to blowing sand, rough surf and plenty of that beautiful sea foam! Temperatures will only reach the mid 60s making it feel even cooler, so have a sweatshirt handy. More sunshine should filter into the region as the day goes on.

Related: Ocean City HD WeatherBug Camera at Plim Plaza

Sunday:

Partly Cloudy, Breezy and Cool

Temperatures: Upper 60s  Winds: NW 10-15 m.p.h.

Low pressure will be moving farther off the east coast into the Atlantic, making for improvements along the Eastern Shore. Temperatures will still be cool unfortunately, with highs only in the mid to upper 60s. This will be the case as water temperatures, which have a huge impact on the air temperatures, are only in the mid 60s.

Related: Rehoboth Beach HD WeatherBug Camera

Memorial Day Monday: 

Partly Cloudy and Cool

Temperatures: Around 70  Winds: NW 5-10 m.p.h.

At this point I think Monday will be the best day of the bunch, with plenty of sunshine and slightly milder temperatures. Highs should reach the upper 60s under partly cloudy skies. Clouds look like they will be the upper-level cirrus variety so I would imagine there would be a filtered sunshine. Winds will be light around 5 to 10 mph out of the northwest.

NOAA Article Here

From NOAA,

"For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA's Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes."

Reasons for the above-average activity are warmer than average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, near-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, and the continuation of the overall atmospheric climate pattern responsible for the high activity era since 1995.

How does this compare to last season? Here was the National Hurricane Center's 2012 season recap.

"For the 2012 Atlantic season, 19 named storms formed, of which 10
became hurricanes. One of those hurricanes, Michael, reached major hurricane status. Activity fore 2012 was well above the 30-year (1981-2010) average for named storms and hurricanes, and below average for major hurricanes. The 1981-2010 seasonal averages for the Atlantic Basin are 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes."

Above is a look at the storm names for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. You can find the list of storm names for the next few years here.

This has been a journey (not over yet by the way) that began when I was a young kid who always loved the sky and the weather. I never dreamed I would be a broadcast meteorologist for some 45 years. 

Like so many of  us who love what we do, have done, and have yet to do, teachers were critical to where I find myself today. Science and math were my favorite subjects in school and my general science teacher really encouraged me.  I was the only kid in the 9th grade who really loved the weather. I did get 100 on the general science section on the atmosphere.  But he also was a great adviser for my science fair projects. 

Here I am with one of favorite projects, my homemade Van de Graff generator.  Must be some distant relative of NewsChannel 8 meteorologist Brian.

I was still the local paperboy in the town where I grew up and was out in all sorts of weather and loving it. I still don't like terrible tornadoes such as just hit Moore, Okla. or ice storms. I wanted to be a weatherman - a meteorologist.  But in the 1950s, most of the jobs were working as forecasters for the U.S. Weather Bureau. That meant "shift work." I might have to work midnight-4 AM sometimes.

I was never keen on getting up early and the idea of shift work (still not a good idea for my many friends in the NWS who get burned out after 30+ years and we lose great meteorologists to retirement) was not appealing. About the same time, I saw the first earth satellite, Sputnick in the night sky. That was really exciting. I was going to build rockets.

Here I am with my other science fair project with model rockets.  

 But after a number of years at college and studying physics, I still loved the weather and was lucky enough to meet another wonderful teacher who became my mentor and lifelong friend. 

Dr. Bernard Vonnegut (yes Kurt's brother) here with other teachers from SUNY Albany from the right Duncan Blanchard, Bernie, Vincent Schaefer and Ray Falconer. 

 Here I am conducting an experiment for Bernie.  

We were forming small whirlwinds from the heating from an electrical discharge. I did not electrocute myself but did come close. Ray suggested I look up the great weathercaster Don Kent as I began a career in research in Boston. I was fortunate to get a moonlighting job at one of the first 10 PM newscast in Boston (the news was canceled after 9 months). Thanks to encouragement from legends such as Don and my colleague Bob Copeland, I was soon on my way from a research lab to broadcast meteorology. 

Would you hire this guy today wearing a horse blanket for a sport jacket?  Actually that was the style and my wife has picked out what I wear every day for 35+ years. Even getting up with me at 2:30 AM when I was doing the Today Show from 1978 to 80. 

Then I spent 30 years at NBC4 with terrific coworkers and friends like Vance and Doreen and many years of writing my Almanac.

The proceeds of the Almanac go to children's charities. Of course, there is also the Golden Snow Shovel contest and the first digital weather site in Washington with friends Dave Jones and Mark Hokezma.  

There will be more fun things to do in my science when I step down from TV. But I will have more time with my life long partner and best critic, Olga and more time with Santa like this. 

These are the reasons I'm now taking a break and can't wait to just watch that first snows in the seasons ahead and enjoy watching as I did 65 years ago as I have done forecasting for 40 years.

Enjoy the weather and enjoy everyday. I'll see be around Washington and sure see you from time to time. Just smile and ask, "how's the weather?"  I'll smile and say "It's great."

The Moore, OK tornado, at one point, reached the highest tornado classification, EF5 status.  EF4 and EF5 tornadoes make up only 1% of all the tornadoes in the U.S.

I wanted to share this first and foremost. You can donate to the Red Cross primarily but if you search around, some businesses will even match your donation. One of those is the National Storm Shelters LLC who tweeted earlier that they will match donations sent through their Red Cross Page Here.

Other Red Cross Resources:

Find more quick help resources from the Red Cross here. Did you know there was a tornado app from the Red Cross to let people know you are safe after the storm has passed?

Text REDCROSS to 90999 to make a $10 donation.

Donating Blood:

The Red Cross stands ready to help meet the blood needs of patients in and around Oklahoma City if needed, and there is currently enough blood on the shelves to meet patient demands. The Red Cross is a secondary supplier of blood products to hospitals in the affected area in Oklahoma. People with type O negative blood are encouraged to give blood when they are able. All eligible blood donors can schedule an appointment to give in the days and weeks ahead by calling 1-800-RED CROSS or visiting www.redcrossblood.org to help ensure blood is available when people need it.

Here is a look at the track of the tornado. It first touched down at 2:56pm and finally roped out at 3:36pm with a path length of 17 miles and a preliminary damage rating at EF-4 intensity.

The National Weather Service office in Norman, OK is continuing to do the damage survey today and will probably continue working on it tomorrow before putting out the final assesment. They will continue to keep updating their page on the tornado here.

You can also stay up to date with the NWS Norman Public Information Statement found here. The latest statement continues to show EF-4 damage with estimated winds of 190 mph, though they said they will continue to update as the teams complete their surveys.

Right after I write that, this was put out by the NWS Norman twitter page, "@NWSNorman: At least one area of EF-5 damage was found by survey crews. Details to follow later. #okwx", so updates will be made soon.

List of F5 and EF5 tornadoes since 1950 - Note how the map is cut off as there haven't been any reported that strong east of the Appalachians.

Photos:

Here is a look at the tornado as it first developed and rapidly intensified from a storm chaser and former NWS Huntsville Meteorologist.

By the time the storm reached Moore, Okla., the storm was an absolute monster. The tornado was up to a mile wide and the winds were possibly up to 200 mph, according to preliminary reports from the National Weather Service.

Unfortunately this storm has taken 24 lives so far (at least not the 91 reported by some outlets earlier today) and just looking at the damage I would imagine there still may be more found today.

Here is a look at the path of this tornado compared to the one that struck the same area on May 3, 1999, which was also classified as a F-5 (Before the EF scale was used) and had winds recorded at nearly 300 mph from a nearby Doppler on Wheels.

It's crazy how these two storms paralleled one another before crossing paths with nearly the same strength 14 years apart.

Another view of the track compared to the 1999 tornado as well as the 2003 F-4 tornado shows just how violent tornadoes have been in that area over the past 14 years.

Above is what I was looking at as this storm was at its height. This is the reflectivity image from the Oklahoma City radar located just southeast of the storm.

If you take a look at the image you will note the big pink to purple circle on the radar image heading into Moore. When I saw this, I was terrified, because that is actually debris suspended in the air that the Doppler is seeing. You can clearly see the classic "hook echo" to the storm, but it's that debris signature that gives you an idea of just how strong this thing was.

Above is a look at the velocity image, which shows winds going towards the radar in green and blue and winds going away from the radar in red. This is definitely one of the strongest velocity couplets I've seen through my radarscope app. This is showing winds in excess of 150 mph and possibly up to 200 mph which would be in an EF-4 range.

It's just unbelievable strength and power in this storm, and something that you most likely will not make it through unless you are underground or in a storm shelter.

Here are a few videos I've seen from YouTube of the tornado.

The storm threat isn't done yet. There is still a moderate risk for severe storms today stretching through Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas and a slight risk through much of the Midwest. Be sure to heed warnings and be ready for severe weather again this afternoon.

Hardest hit was Shawnee, Okla., where a large, violent tornado struck a mobile home park leaving nothing standing. Here is video from our ABC affiliate of the damage.  That twister, among several others, was caught on tape by stormchasers. 

The severe weather had been advertised for days. All of the elements came together like a textbook example of how warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico meets up with cooler, drier air from the north. Strong winds turn with height in the atmosphere and  the winds also increase in speed with height.  

This helps provide the support needed for major tornadoes of EF3 or more. 

The Shawnee tornado is yet to be rated on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, but the National Weather Service is on the scene Monday to do a survey.  In all, there were around 50 preliminary reports of tornadoes this weekend and many, many more reports of wind damage and hail stretching from Oklahoma to Minnesota. Here are the storm reports from just Sunday:  

Unfortunately, more tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Moderate Risk" for tornadoes in some of the same areas of Oklahoma.  A slight risk stretches into the Great Lakes. 

Despite the large number of tornadoes this weekend, we are still far below the seasonal averages. May is usually the month with the highest count of tornadoes in the United States. Check out this graphic from the Storm Prediction Center. Also, notice the high count in 2011. 

As for us in D.C. Maryland, and Virginia, we tend to see more frequent violent weather in July and August, but tornadoes can and do happen in May and June.  Remember, it's not the number of tornadoes that develop, it's the potential of just one of them impacting you.

His recent book, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars, relates his work on reconstructing the climate back thousands of years, but as the title insinuates, how his findings have lead to political, philosophical and personal attack. Climate is always changing as shown in this reconstruction back millions of years.

But the key question remains: "Is human activity now a principal driver of some recent rapid changes in climate?"  

Mann and almost 100 percent of 1000s of climate scientists believe the answer is yes, we are changing the earth's climate, as a recent survey of scientists shows.

So what does this have to do with the cave bear? 

Archeologists (not meteorologists) have found some evidence that early humans and cave bears probably had contact. 

Original art by Zdnek Burian

Imagine your family struggling to survive in the shelter of a cave and this monster shows up at the door or opening of the cave.  You fight the cave bear to defend your family or clan.

The cave bear was a short-term threat. Humans are very good at responding to short-term threats. It's the way we have survived and are "wired" to respond to short term rather than long-term threats.  The long-term change rise in global temperature during the last 100+ years is obvious. 

NASA GISS

The projections of most simulations of global temperatures 50-100+ years from now are pretty consistent and not really different than Michael Mann's "hockey stick". Latest here and below

IPCC WG1 2007

But for so many of us trying to balance this week's budget, or with no good planning for retirement 10-30 years from now (the Cave Bear is far away), how can we think about or make decisions about what might be major changes to the world and our country's climate 100 years from now?

Especially if some short term climate projections are for relatively steady temperatures over the next decade?  

UK Met Office Latest Decadal Forecast

It's the question I asked Michael Mann. The climate Cave Bear is not here yet but he's coming. Once it's obvious it's here, our short term instinctive wiring won't help us easily change the climate any more than it helps us change the tide. 

Long term decisions, meanwhile are very difficult to make and sure even more difficult to get consensus about from now, about 7 Billion of us on our changing earth.

If you've been around town, you've likely seen the scaffolding growing up the side of the monument, as crews work hard to make sure the structual integrity of the monument is up to standard.  This process has been going on since March 2013.  Take a minute to watch this incredible timelapse over the past 54 days of the rising scaffolding and the changing weather over the two month period.  Incredible!

Right now the Pimlico website has the main track as "fast" and in good condition. Since this is the fastest track in the trio of those represented in the "Triple Crown" due to the shortness of the track itself, just a little rain could make for a very interesting outcome. Orb, (who also won the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs) is the clear favorite not only to take Preakness Stakes but to take the Triple Crown. However, it is not going to be really fun to bet on him. His odds are currently 1-1 which means you bet a dollar, you get a dollar. I'd say go out on a limb and make things interesting for yourself and then brag to everybody who bet on Orb after you win--but that's just me...and I digress....

Hopefully the track at Pimlico will be nowhere near the condition of the track at Churchill Downs--muddy, soaking wet and slick:

 So what is the forecast for the 138th Preakness Stakes?

Well, while although we do have an unsettled pattern of weather for the weekend, it looks like highs throughout the daytime will reach into the lower 70s with cloudy skies and a light SE wind at 5 - 10 mph. A chance of a passing shower or storm is not out of the question through the day but I only give that about a 25% shot.

By the time racetime rolls around at 6:20, temperatures will be right around 70 degrees with overcast skies. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm now at about 20% - 25% shot.

I do get a little concerned that at least one of our models, the GFS is picking up some more widespread rain for Saturday--including for Baltimore. This shows precipitation for 2:00PM EST:

However, I believe at this point the threat of more widespread rain stays well to the south of the D.C. and Baltimore areas through the day on Saturday.

If you are out and about at Preakness or anywhere- check out our local radar for the Baltimore area:

Baltimore Local Radar | Area Wide Radar

Happy Betting!!!!

Other April Statistics

Reagan National Airport actually ended up 2.1°F warmer than normal for the month, and would have been even warmer than that if it weren't for 9 of the last 11 days in April with below average temperatures.

Above is a look at the statewide temperatures ranks from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). As you can see, Virginia actually ranked as the 28th warmest April on record and states on the east coast and west coast had above normal temperatures.

The there's the central U.S. North Dakota recorded its coldest April on record with a statewide average of 31°F! That's an incredible 9.9°F below normal for the month. It reminds me of last March in D.C. which was the warmest on record at 10°F above average.

Alaska also had a cold April, with temperatures 5.8°F below average and it ranked as the 7th coolest April on record for the state. Fairbanks, AK was actually 14.5°F below normal for the month!

Snow cover across the U.S. ranked as the 5th largest snow cover in April in the 47-year period of record. The Care Bears even helped close the season at Breckenridge in Colorado!

Finally, for the first time in a long time, record cold highs and lows outnumbered the record warm highs and lows. In fact, there ended up being three times as many record lows as record highs. Check here to see the latest update for the year.

FULL CLIMATE REPORT HERE

The Storm Prediction Center has collaborated with the National Weather Service office in Sterling, VA today to upgrade parts of the D.C. area to a Slight Risk for severe storms. This just highlights a greater potential for severe weather in the area highlighted below. The best chances for severe storms will actually be in the southern part of the blue circled area.

Damaging winds will still be the primary mode of severe weather in any storms that form and location should be along and south of the frontal boundary. A lot of lightning has also been in the storms that have developed around Charlottesville.

Areas south of Fredericksburg in VA closer to Central Virginia and the Northern Neck will have the biggest threat for any severe storms. Stay tuned this afternoon for further updates on our homepage, through social media and on ABC 7 News at 5pm and 6pm.

 
 The National Hurricane Center has identified a cluster of thunderstorms hundreds of miles south of the Mexican Coast as having the potential of developing into the first named storm of the season.  If so, it would be named Alvin.  Here's a complete list of hurricane names for 2013. (I always like looking to see if my name is on there, it never is!) This chart of forecast models show that if Alvin develops it should stay away from land. 

 
The large majority of hurricanes here travel from East to West or Northwest. The Eastern Pacific season on average is busier than the Atlantic season which can impact us here in D.C.  

On average there are 15 named storms, 8 of them becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes (cat 3 or stronger).  We are expecting it to be a near average to slightly below average Eastern Pacific season in terms of numbers of cyclones.  One of the reasons for this has to do with the temperature of waters in the equatorial pacific. Notice they are slightly below average in blue.

We look to that El Nino phenomenon for clues.   El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the unusual warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. When temps are warm and winds are calm, it can make for a busy hurricane season in the Pacific. This year, we are in a "neutral" phase of El Nino and should stay that way through the summer, making for a trickier forecast.  More detailed ENSO info here. So, why should we care about this in D.C? The ocean and atmosphere are a continuum of currents and patterns. And, when it's warm in the Pacific, it is often cool in the Atlantic and vice versa.  With a near normal to below average season in the Pacific, we are seeing parts of the Atlantic warm up, especially off the coast of Africa.

 
 Notice the cooler temperatures hugging the East Coast of the U.S. where we have had a cool May.  It's also a bit cool in the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Water temperatures need to be 80 degrees to support the "fuel" needed for a hurricane. The Atlantic Season may very well end up a busy one as many hurricane experts are predicting. We are coming off three consecutive "busy" seasons with 19 named storms each of those years.  We'll talk and blog more about the Atlantic Season in the next few weeks.

The concrete, buildings, streets, ashphalt absord heat in the day and just like a hot pot of water are slow to cool at night.  I think everyone living in a city, during a summer heat wave knows cities are hotter.  Is the city weather different than the "rural" weather?  I hope you think yes-at least on summer nights cities are warmer.  Also warmer on winter nights-which helps the heating bills.  OK is the "climate" (think average summer temperaturers) of the cities different?  Is the climate of the cities changing?  Yes, I know slipperly slope and not going there.  But let's just agree that on a small scale (let's call it a microclimate) the climate is changing.  So now what about summer thunderstorms?  Here is a series of radar images that Marshall Shepherd thinks shows were started in part by the Atlanta urban area in a northeast flow of unstable air.

  He set out to test his idea/theory by experiemts.  He and students made physical/mathematical simulations of the city and the atmopshere and found in some special cases thunderstorms do split around NYC. 

  Also his ideas that cities, as  Marshall Shepherd has found in Atlanta, Georgia, under certain conditions may even be the starting point of individual storms.  And here  Washington-Baltimore area  may indeed change lines of thunderstorms in the Washington area as some researchers have suggested.  So here is the short story.  See what you think.  Are cities changing our weather?

I have received many questions regarding the cicada emergence after my last blog post. I even chimed in on the online chat that was held in Fairfax County.

The main thing that came out of that chat was that "the emergence of cicadas in the D.C. area will be minimum and sparse through portions of Northern Virginia".

Wait, what? I thought they would be everywhere! While that is true in other locations around the region, it seems that they emergence of Brood II cicadas could be few and far between in the District itself. 

According to Gary Hevel from the Department of Entomology at the Smithsonian, Brood II will contain three distinct species in this area.

"Oddly, Northern Virginia in 1996 (last year of Brood II) experienced large numbers of cicadas, while the District and Maryland had minimal numbers," he said. "Because emerging cicadas do not fly too far from their food sources (trees), this described pattern during this emergence will probably be quite similar.

"Exact numbers in the District would be impossible to predict, but D.C. residents can venture to northern Virginia to gain the unique experience of the cicada emergence."

Entomologist Michael Raupp from the University of Maryland agrees and shared with me his thoughts and thoughts from his colleague cicada guru John Zyla.

John produced a wonderful cicada map for our region that puts the nearest emergence of Brood II in Calvert, St. Mary’s, Fairfax, Fauquier, and Prince William Counties as seen below. Professor Raupp concurs with this distribution map; according to his website Bug Of The Week, "the blue/purple color 'II" are the locations that are mostly likely to be severely impacted by the cicadas this year"

Original Post

Spring 1996: President Bill Clinton was about five months into his second term as president; Michael Jordan was back with the Chicago Bulls winning their 4th NBA Championship defeating the Seattle Supersonics, the average price of gas was $1.27 per gallon, Ted Kaczynski, suspected of being the Unabomber, was indicted on ten criminal counts, “The Nutty Professor" starring Eddie Murphy opens in theaters in the U.S. and Nintendo 64 goes on sale in Japan. There was also one other thing on the docket that spring that was plaguing the Mid Atlantic…..this:

Remember that noisy, chirping ugly gigantic insect that died within several weeks after its appearance leaving a blanket of carcasses around just for you to sweep up? Well get ready—because swarmaggedon is upon us once again.

Now just to recap, there are several thousand different species of cicadas throughout the world. Hunkered down below the soil for much of their lifespan, they eventually penetrate our ground in cycles operating on a 13 – 17 year emergence. The species that will emerge this year has not been seen since 1996, or 17 years ago, and is known as the Magicicada Brood II. The majority of their lives are spent underground as immature nymphs, sucking sap from tree roots to survive. The nymphs shed their exoskeletons soon after emerging from the ground and form into full adulthood above ground to breed.

These ugly (yes, I am totally judging) shrimp-size insects are known for their loud mating songs (7kHz), large transparent wings and their red beady eyes that are set wide apart. They will begin to carpet the Mid-Atlantic mostly likely in May this year and by the end of June should mostly be gone and not seen again (this particular species) for 17 years!

They are not harmful to humans and are even considered a delicacy by some people—(I’m talking to all you “high protein/low fat/no carb" dieters out there). Apparently their plant based diet gives them a “green, asparagus-like flavor when eaten raw or boiled” according to Gene Kritsky, a biologist and cicada expert from the College of Mount St. Joseph in Cincinnati, OH. If you are really interested in trying them this year, check out these recipes, cooked up for you by Jenna Jadin, an Entomology major from the University of Maryland: Bug appetit to you brave souls.

Cicada are cold blooded therefore they have to rely on warm air temperatures and/or direct sunlight to sing, mate and fly and their black skin color helps that process. The massive emergence by cicadas is based on their strategy of survival and is referred to as “predator satiation”. Pretty much, they reproduce by the millions in order to surprise and overwhelm their predators (birds, squirrels, snakes, lizards, raccoons, etc).

This ensures that enough survivors will be left behind to reproduce. If you dig in the right place, you can on average find about 30 to 50 nymphs in a hole about 1 square foot.
 

So beware: if you are planning ANY outdoor activities this spring: graduation, wedding ceremony, backyard BBQ, the Magicicada Brood II cicada will be an uninvited guest, unless you have them as part of your meal.

If you are interested in tracking them or helping scientists track the invasion, head on over to Radiolab. Plenty of DIY type of projects for adults and kids during the cicada season. Happy hunting!

Here's the set up. High pressure will enter the region Monday and Tuesday making for clear skies and light winds. Temperatures aloft and humidity levels at the surface will also be quite low, allowing for the maximum potential for radiational cooling. At this point in time, the potential exists for portions of our area to see morning low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning in the 30's and possibly even 20's in the mountains.

This will allow for some areas to develop frost around the D.C. Metro and potentially freezing conditions along and west of the Blue Ridge through the Shenandoah Valley. I have introduced that beautifully hand-drawn blue line to denote the freezing line, with temperatures forecast to be at or below freezing along and west of the line. This model does show, however, temperatures in the mid 30's closer to D.C. and upper 30's closer to the Chesapeake Bay. D.C. itself may see lows closer to the 40 degree mark.

Just how cold is this air compared to normal? The seasonal averages in D.C. for Tuesday are 75 degrees for the high temperature and 56 for the low temperature. Our current forecast is for a low in the low 40s inside the Beltway at Reagan National Airport, but that isn't far off from the record low of 41 degrees that day (the 14th).

Above is a look at the forecast temperature departures for the day across the Northeast. The region shaded in white and purple (which is a LARGE area) shows temperature anomalies at 15 degrees or more below normal. Some ares such as the darker purple shaded area over Western Maryland and parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia even have the chance of seeing temperatures 20 degrees or more below normal. On a side note, the other side of the high which will experience the warm return flow could lead to temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees as far north as Minnesota!

 Mike McGrath, WTOP's Garden Editor, tells Doug Hill and myself that it is best to typically wait until after May 15th to plant outside. This year that is no joke!

Big thanks to Bob Leffler for giving me the idea to write this blog. Thanks for the heads up!

Check out yesterday's satellite image.  Notice the big "swirl" from space.

I went ahead and drew the features that are present from this system.  The 'L' represents the area of low pressure that is spinning, counterclockwise, over the southeast US.  The blue arrows indicate the onshore, or easterly, flow bringing in Atlantic moisture to the mid-Atlantic.  Air circulates around the low in this counterclockwise fashion.

The low will track northeast over the coming days, but will be slow to do so.  Take a look at the upper level low from about 18,000 ft (500mb).  This is a simulation of where the low will be later this afternoon. 

As the low tracks northeast, cloudy and damp weather will persist across the region.  It won't be a complete washout each day this week, but scattered showers will be possible through at least Thursday.  Check out the Weather Prediction Center's quantitative precipitation forecast through Thursday evening.  This forecast shows between 1 and 2 inches of rain over our region, with locally higher amounts over southwestern VA.

With moderate rain possible over an extended period of time, the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for parts of the Shenandoah valley through late tonight.  Remember, if you encounter standing water, never drive through it. The latest Flood Watch was extended north into Clarke, Frederick (VA), Hampshire and Mineral Counties as well.

By late Thursday, the low weakens its grip and gets caught back in the overall pattern.  Compare the 500mb heights in this forecast (below) for Thursday night to the same map shown above.  Notice there is a slight dip in the wave pattern, but nothing cut-off (like in the similar image a few graphics up). 

For us, this means a less unsettled weather pattern.... sort of, for Friday at least. High temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees by the end of the week, which could initiate a few airmass thunderstorms to develop, but nothing widespread.  A cold front will then slide through this weekend bringing continued chances for showers but drier and slightly cooler air can be expected for early next week. 

The School Spirit Challenge was a throw down to public and private K-12 schools in the Washington metropolitan area to create a team for the 2013 Global Race for the Cure. The Challenge was a strategy to grow K-12 academic teams to make for an unforgettable Race Day experience, and empower our kids to make a difference in their community. School team participation is a community commitment to:

· Raising awareness about breast cancer throughout the school community;
· Celebrating anyone in a school’s community who is or has battled breast cancer
· Helping students, faculty, and families learn, understand and overcome fears about breast cancer and its treatment; and
· Promoting this global outreach effort to end breast cancer as a life-threatening disease.

Check out energetic crowd and how much fun we had together in the clips below as we chat about the Challenge and the forecast.

 
 Wear sunscreen with UVA and UVB proction with an SPF of 30 or greater and apply it every few hours.  If at the beach, make sure it is waterproof.  On a day when the UV Index is "Extreme" it takes less than 15 minutes to get burned. Here is a chart to calculate sun exposure/burn times.  

 
You can get your own personalized UV forecast by entering your zip code here.  The sun's rays are strongest from 10a until 2p.  Avoid prolonged exposure during this time.  Staying in the shade or taking shade "breaks" is recommended, so is wearing light weight long sleeves and pants if you're going to be in direct sun at length.  A hat can cover and protect your head and face. And sunglasses with UV protection are a must.  Remember white sandy beaches and water reflect the rays and can double your exposure.  Memorial Day weekend is just a few weeks away. Check out the average UV Index for May.

 
  Did I mention that sun damage makes you look OLD?  Ever heard of sun spots? Sun damage in your younger years can translate to darker discoloration of your skin. Check out this image from the Mayo Clinic. 

 
 Not a lot of sun expected until Friday in the D.C. area.  Make sure you pull out the sunscreen now, and check if its expired.  If so, time to freshen up and stay sun safe.

Here is the link to watch the video in higher resolution.

Meteorologist Devon Lucie here.  I was a meteorology student at the University of Oklahoma that day, and it's one I'll never forget.  At that time, the school of meteorology was located on the top floor of Sarkeys Energy Center at the Northeast end of the campus in Norman, OK, which you can see on the map, is just southeast of the track of the infamous tornado. 

I was on the 12th floor in a room with other students when I witnessed the tell-tale flashes of power lines and transformers failing as the tornado ripped through Moore.  The massive wedge tornado also was crossing over I-35 at that time where a number of people lost their lives while trying to shelter from the twister during rush hour.  The highest wind speed recorded by the Doppler on Wheels found winds of 298mph, which is still the highest wind speed ever recorded on the planet.  It was an awesome, yet horrfying sight... one I never hope to repeat again. 

NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory webpage on the Outbreak here

NOAA National Weather Service Norman, OK webpage on the Outbreak here

Meteorological Summary of the Event Here

 Thanks to @stormchaser4850 for finding and sharing these videos on his twitter feed.

The first mission ended in 2008, but was then was extended - the Cassini Equinox mission - through September 2010.  That mission, too, was extended and the Cassini Solstice mission will continue through September 2017.  

"We're looking at a string of remarkable discoveries -- about Saturn's magnificent rings, its amazing moons, its dynamic magnetosphere and about Titan's surface and atmosphere," says Dr. Linda Spilker, Cassini project scientist. "Some of the mission highlights so far include discovering that Titan has Earth-like processes and that the small moon Enceladus has a hot-spot at its southern pole, jets on the surface that spew out ice crystals and evidence of liquid water beneath its surface."

Back in October 2012, Cassini captured a fantastic, rare image of the planet.  The spacecraft was perfectly positioned in front of Saturn with the sun directly behind the planet.  The result is a uniquely backlit image of Saturn.  What really stands out are Saturn's rings, which scientists have been studying closely, as well as the atmosphere phenomena. 

An image that was just recently released highlights the storms at Saturn's north pole.  The bright red swirl in the middle is a hurricane-like structure (described more below).  The yellow hexagonal feature surrounding the central vortex is the planet's jet stream.  The orange mini-swirls within the yellow colored jet are low-lying clouds.  The bright teal on the outside of image are Saturn's rings.  These are false-colored images, but really make the features pop.

Here's a tighter shot of the hurricane on Saturn.  The spinning vortex resembles a giant rose.  Scientists have learned the eye of the hurricane on Saturn is 20 times larger than the average size of a hurricane eye on Earth (1,250 miles wide on Saturn).  Scientists have also measured cloud speeds as fast as 330 miles per hours.

Keep updated with the Cassini mission through the NASA link. Here's a neat timeline that will also give you Cassini milestones from 1997 through the projected completion in September 2017.

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Here we go once again, the most wonderful time of the year! No, I am not talking about Christmas....I am speaking of the one and only Shenandoah Apple Blossom Festival just over the Blue Ridge Mountains in my hometown of Winchester, Virginia. I have attended every festival and parade since I was born and working on my 29th this year. The parade is always held the first weekend in May, the festival is in its 86th year. The first festival was held Saturday May 3rd, 1924 and was only a one-day celebration. Now the festival spans over a week and kicks off with the United Bank Bloomin’ Wine Festival then jumps into a series of over thirty events including a carnival, 10K race, dinners, dances, craft shows and two parades: The Firefighters Parade (originally called the Torch Light and the Mummers’ Parade that began in 1929—which is one of the nation’s largest parades of its kind) and the Grand Feature Parade, the main attraction.

Plenty of celebrities have made it to the Shenandoah Valley over the years as well including Val Kilmer, Mario Lopez, Jerry Rice, George Hamilton, Wayne Newton, Sean Astin, Dan Aykroyd, Chevy Chase, Al Roker, Adam West, Mickey Mantle, Martin Short, Bob Hope, Lucille Ball, President Gerald Ford (when his daughter was Queen Shenandoah in 1975), Elizabeth Taylor, Mary Tyler Moore, Rusty Wallace, Erik Estrada, Debbie Reynolds, Barry Sanders, John Riggins and Winchester’s own Patsy Cline (just to name a few).

Growing up with Apple Blossom has been a huge tradition for anybody living in the Winchester area. For me it has been additionally special considering I live and breathe Apple Blossom time every year, the first weekend in May. People decorate everything they can think of in a splash of Pink and Green, the bleachers by my alma mater John Handley High School are built in less than a week where the "grand stands" reside and also the influx of people into the city just goes to show how tight-knit the Winchester community really is. The first Apple Blossom I remember is sitting at the Grand Stands. I was three (and yes the parade was a little long for me)--however, I made a game out of seeing how many pooper scoopers would come down the street in front of the grand stand. Now and days more sophisticated pooper scoopers have taken suit, however, back in the day it was a hard day's work with just a shovel and a bucket. I guess this is why I was drawn to them...thus, the pooper scooper being my absolute favorite feature in the parade....and it is to this day! As my great-grandmother claims below...it is quite the "parade necessity."

Not only has this become a tradition for me, it is embedded through the roots of my family. I think since this whole shebang has started, a member of each generation in my family has been lucky enough to somehow be involved with the festival. This you can see from the picture below in which my grandfather, James Morgan, was asked to escort Miss Virginia around for the duration of the festival--how lucky.

However, growing up in the City of Winchester and attending John Handley High School I was fortunate enough to "become" friends with kids who lived on the parade route....believe you me, they are still my friends. I was smart and started really early--I met my first "Apple Blossom buddy" in kindergarten at Frederick Douglass Elementary School. This is how the conversation went in kindergarten class: "Hey Ashely, my name is Lauryn. Do you wanna play Lincoln logs or play with bottle caps?" "Oh, you live on the parade route? " "Hmmmm, can I come over for Apple Blossom parade?"  Thank goodness her parents still live in the same house they did when I was in kindergarten, which is a historical house on the parade route. This is how the conversation goes now: "Hey Ashley, your house for Apple Blossom?" "Is your mom making those mini chicken salad sandwiches?" "You mom better be making the chicken salad sandwiches, I'm only coming if she is making mini chicken salad sandwiches."

 (Ashley, picture below in the middle still continues to be one of my best friends--parade house or not).

 
I was quite the lucky girl when I was able to honor Queen Katherine Desiree Luckinbill as one of her Princesses for the 75th Anniversary Apple Blossom Festival. She was the granddaughter of Lucille Ball and Desi Arnez.. Lucille Ball served as Grand Marshall for the Apple Blossom Festival in the 60's so it was such an honor to have a Queen that continued a wonderful family held tradition. I was a freshman in college when I was able to do such a special thing. However, I didn't do it alone....3 of my best friends and 7 other friends I had were ALL in the court that some year!

Check out this year's celebrities here! Happy bloom to all!