But don't for one moment overlook the consistent reason you're feeling a tad tense these days. It's the event that dwarfs all others. In tailgating (of a different nature), rally cries & spending (yes, even more than those stockings and Santa statues: The 2012 Campaign - and things are boiling over in Battleground Virginia.

Obama campaign sources have confirmed that the President will be back in Northern Virginia this coming Friday for another rally.

If you're keeping count, that should be the 17th time he'll be in Virginia since June.

Not to mention 10 by his wife and six by Vice President Joe Biden.

Mitt Romney's also worthy of an honorary residency here. By the Washington Post's count, he's hit the Old Dominion 18 times. Officials tell ABC7 News that Romney's running mate, Paul Ryan, will campaign in Lynchburg and Fredericksburg on Tuesday.

Ryan has been here 11 times, and Ann Romney has made five appearances.

As I said earlier this week, if states gave out passport stamps, these guys would need entire books just for Virginia.

It's tough to trust the other big numbers in this race. The polls seem to change daily and we are seeing more erratic swings than predicted by even the most wide-eyed pundits. One day, Virginians favor the President by a handful...the next, Romney's up by two (as he was in a Rasmussen Poll Friday).

They'll certain to change again before Nov. 6.

One thing is a worthy of safe betting though. The President and Mitt Romney will continue to make Virginia a central focus these final 20+ days.

We love to talk Ohio or Florida or Iowa or Nevada, but both parties' surrogates will publicly say Virginia is a top prize. Win the Commonwealth, they believe, and they'll win the White House.

Welcome back, Mr. President. Mr. Romney, see you soon. Try not to bump into each other.

Let me open by admitting we can be tough on the President.

We’ve sometimes set the bar high enough where great work is seemingly only good. What may be a stroke of political genius seems only mildly impressive. And what may be a powerful work of oratory seems rather ordinary. This is the biggest of the sometimes unfair comparisons, since for more than four years now, we’ve been spoiled by the silver-tongue of a man with uncanny speaking abilities and skills of persuasion.

And maybe that’s the cause for the letdown. Maybe that’s why when I asked around immediately after Thursday night’s acceptance speech in Charlotte I heard these grades:

D, C minus and the ole’ average C. As a matter of fact, one tapped-in political junkie told me my assessment of B- was way too generous.

I do admit, I was grading on a curve.

It was hard *not* to be a tad underwhelmed. After all, President Clinton was so riveting (and even for Clinton haters, it must still have been highly entertaining…remember that ad-libbed line about a ‘boy from Arkansas’ and math?) that the President had a yeoman’s work cut out for him. Heck, even his wife may have overshadowed Mr. Obama. Her speech, too, was described by people all across this city as a home run—as she reminisced of the rusted out car they’d drive in on the way to dates as a young couple.

Dare I say, even Joe Biden with his consistently over-tapped and sometimes incorrect use of the word ‘literal’ or Jennifer Granholm’s red faced rant about the auto industry, which at times bordered on the verge of turning in to another regretful Howard Dean implosion.

Each of these seemed more captivating.

There were moments of levity, emotion and genuine care in the President’s speech and he *did* issue some specific benefits of his plan:

-halving our oil imports by 2020

-halving the growth of college tuition increases over the next ten years

-protecting Medicare from any plans for a voucher program

However, ultimately, I just don’t believe the President who had cornered the market on ‘hope’ presented a strong enough case that his plan would indeed pull us out of this financial mess. And frankly, that’s what everyone wanted. The speech, while I still believe was closer to a B than a D, was unmoving barring moments like this:

But for a more appropriate sports analogy, befitting of our NASCAR-esque location, there were just too many laps spent in the middle of the pack and a nagging feeling that the race car just wasn’t firing on all cylinders.

If the harshest of critics are correct and the speech was as a letdown…then the President may want to write the NFL a quick thank you card because as President Clinton was driving the analogous pace car Wednesday night with his moving speech, the Cowboys kicked off the 2012 football season against the Giants. That audience couldn’t get caught up in Clinton’s impassioned performance and then calmed down by the President’s.

That’s right. The final arbiter of our sunny skies or cloudy conditions has spoken on convention season and apparently has no favorite between the R’s and D’s.

Hurricane Isaac shortened Tampa’s Republican National Convention and now a lingering set of storms has crashed President Obama’s Charlotte crescendo. Wednesday, the Democratic National Convention decided to move Obama’s speech from the massive, 73,000-seat Bank of America stadium to the covered and cozier 20,000-seat confines of the Time Warner Cable Arena.

Seems like a reasonable move, right? There’s a 30 percent chance of storms, and one flash of lighting could force evacuations from the football field.

But wait a minute…conspiracy theorists abound! They, and we’re talking mostly of Republicans here, with a large grin, wink and nod imply - rather shout - that the move has nothing to do with the weather. They insist Team Obama was worried about filling all those seats. They also know the media might choose to focus on an empty row in section 430 rather than the President’s policy lines on Medicare.

Can’t you see the headline on Drudge?

Either way, the decision was made and that meant the most entertaining back and forth we’ve seen in…well, just days…but at least it was better than the spat over who built what and if who couldn’t instantly answer the ‘are we better off now’ question. True, those are real issues but the ensuing battles over how they’ve been handled, frankly, is mostly white noise.

So too, is this. But at conventions, where the 24-hour spin cycle turns at such a furious pace, sometimes a discussion over cloak and dagger forecasting decisions is just the political levity we need.

The laughs come easy after watching this back and forth between Obama’s Deputy Campaign Manager Stephanie Cutter & Romney surrogate, John Sununu. Here’s what they told me immediately after the decision was made:

Of course, the end result means about 50,000 fewer people get to see the POTUS in person. The consolation prize: a conference call for those scorned ticket holders with the man himself.

Unless of course, Mother Nature decides she’s not done just yet and knocks out the phone lines next.

That’s probably a wise one.

And it seems they’re sticking to it. What do I mean? Well, look at some of the speakers just in the 6-7pm hour of night number one.

Rep. Barbara Lee
Lieutenant General Claudia Kennedy
Gov. Bev Perdue
Mary Kay Henry
Rep. Charles Gonzalez
Rep. Nydia Velazquez

Push further into the night and it’s:

Rep. Tammy Duckworth
Rep. Xavier Becerra
Kathleen Sebelius
Lilly Ledbetter
Julian Castro and of course…

Michelle Obama.

Lots of women. Lots of Hispanics.

Why? Because among other significant voting blocs, they brought Obama to the prom in ’08 and now that he’s the star quarterback (it’s up to you to decide if it’s been a winning or losing four seasons) he’s not bailing on those who not only bought the dress and rented the limo, but also made him the big man on campus.

Yes, they study the poll numbers and yes, they’re encouraged to know that these demographics still heavily favor Mr. Obama and could provide the razor thin edge which may decide this race.

That’s not to say he’s got extra breathing room or that he’s not worried. He is. Believe it or not, despite the onslaught of attack ads and campaign stops…there are still undecided voters—some indicate as many as 5%--and the unenthused. That may be his biggest pitfall. Unenthused are those waited hours in lines to attend rallies, stuck yard signs in their front lawns and who rushed to the polls in ’08 to make history with Obama. There has been for many, however, an increasingly souring taste of late over promises or perceived promises, not fulfilled.

They need to be re-energized and that’s not an easy task.

How to accomplish it? By touting accomplishments. Talk about the consecutive months of job growth, the rebounded stock market or the saving of the auto makers.

Don’t however keep talking about the mess inherited from the Bush administration. This is a broken record that, while the most ardent of Democrats consider bible’s verse, those on the fence find worthy of eye rolls. It reeks of negativity and backward thinking. It reminds people of bad…even if it’s not your bad. It’s a turn off of the greatest kind for voters sitting at home and wondering what to do November 6th.

So if the President wishes to return to that metaphorical prom, while choosing the playlist he needs to keep that old tune on the shelf with the rest of the 45’s.

And always remember, stick with who brought ya!

I won’t argue that politics can often be described as ‘ridiculous’. That would be, well…..you know…ridiculous. I will say however, it’s been a while since I’ve heard the two words placed in the same sentence, so closely and so often when describing the world of donkeys and elephants. Our political globe seems to be spinning at break-neck speed and with a self-induced wobble that can’t easily be righted. The biggest (and I believe most entertaining) examples below:

1. MONEY DISAPPEARS INTO THIN AIR

I know you may argue apples & oranges on this one…but it’s always sobering to take the money being spent in a campaign and apply it to something else like the funding needed to feed a starving village for two years, a small country’s GDP or Apple’s profit’s from the iPad 3.

Where’s the ridiculousness in this one? It comes from assessments that GOP super PAC’s supporting Mitt Romney & other national candidates will likely pull in $1 billion dollars. (If you said that with a pinky finger extended like Dr. Evil from the Austin Powers flicks, my work is done here)

Not to say one party is more prone to thieving someone’s mojo. What’s ridiculous is the figure AND that it’s attainable. Citizens United, as we’ve spoken about many times before, has changed the game but this time, we’re talking high scores that blow away previous record holders. Politico is reporting that sources say the $1 billion, rounded up with the help of stalwarts like Karl Rove, the Koch brothers and Tom Donohue is very realistic.

So how ridiculous, I mean big, is that? In 2008 when fundraising was considerably different and more difficult, then Senator Obama had a war chest of $750 million. Sen. McCain had $370.
This reported titanic amount we’ll see in 2012 is just from one side and does *not* include the money Mitt & the RNC will separately come up with and tap into for the fight.
That brings us to ridiculousness #2

2. THE DONALD

Yes, we all caught the latest real-life episode of whatever you’d call Trump’s insertion into the race. Yes, we all gasped a bit as George Will called him a “bloviating ignoramus”. And yes, we all were thoroughly entertained when Trump and Wolf Blitzer got into an argument on live TV Tuesday.

The ‘ridiculousness’ in this scenario though, is that the “birther” issue can still ruffle so many feathers. And in that bit of gamesmanship, in a way, Trump wins. Why? Because even though very few Americans still question Obama’s citizenship, it gets Trump the attention he wants, it generates chatter & I personally believe waters down the credibility and words of the TV hosts and commentators (many, Obama supporters) who relish the opportunity to attack Trump over these claims and not focus on more important issues & legislative records that matter to voters.

The entire scenario…even if in some dramatic twist of fate we came to some shocking revelation that the President were not who he says he is…still propagates a circus-like atmosphere that can only be described as….you know…

3. IS MITT A UNICORN?

Understanding these are words I never in my life could have predicted writing, this is a question being asked today. The, let’s call them “anti-birthers”, are trying to demonstrate how ridiculous they feel their opponents are by arguing this: So, we can’t prove Obama wasn’t born in Kenya? Fine. Then prove to us that Mitt Romney isn’t a unicorn.

I’m serious. Seriously.

There’s a website generated by those opposing the effort to keep Obama off the Arizona ballot. It’s complete with photo-shopped versions of Romney with the mythical horn protruding from his forehead.

They’re demanding DNA tests. Prove he’s not, they demand…otherwise, he is not qualified to run for President.

Tongue in cheek? Yes.

Ridiculous? You bet your tickets to Medieval Times it is!

I’d love to tell you it can’t get any crazier…but there are still five more months to go.

Enjoy.

“That’s very sweet of you” sarcastically responded the target.

Then it got physical.

An imposingly large man walked over and without saying much knocked a sign out of a retiree’s hands. It hit with such force anyone in earshot spun around to see the aftermath which mostly consisted of the aggressor walking away quickly to avoid pursuing TV cameras.

Outside of the Verizon center before the Capitals and Rangers hit the ice might have been the more likely backdrop for such aggression…sadly however, this one was in Chantilly outside a campaign appearance by Mitt Romney who just finished talking about women and small business owners (inflammatory, I know).

This race, and the ensuing fervor, to play out between candidates and their supporters will be of epic passions in the Old Dominion this year. Virginia, as I’ve been preaching to my newsroom colleagues will be not just a top-shelf trophy for the campaigns. But may be put upon such a lofty perch it forces Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania to “scooch over” just a tad.

In a recent interview with Stephanie Cutter, Obama’s Deputy Campaign Manager told me winning Virginia is clearly in their top five but didn’t care for the word “trophy”.

Nevertheless, the proof is in the pudding…or calendar, in this case.

Let’s take a look.
-Wednesday-Romney in Chantilly
-Thursday-Romney in Portsmouth
-Friday-Obama in Arlington
-Saturday-Obama in Richmond

And keep in mind these aren’t just your typical road-side stops. Romney’s Chantilly event was essentially the kick-off to his campaign in Virginia. And President Obama’s Richmond rally is the official beginning to his national campaign. Since nothing…and I mean, almost NOTHING is ever coincidental in campaigns, we should consider these carefully choreographed moves to indicate that Virginia and its toss-up status is likely to be a frequent host to these two men and their countless surrogates.

Another factor: money.

Granted the overall figures are not astronomical, yet. But according to the Virginia Public Access Project, each candidate has pulled in about a million bucks so far from donors here.

Obama: $992,208 from 1,765 individual donations
Romney: $989,398 from 954 individual donations

**the largest percentage of open wallets hailed from Alexandria, Arlington and McLean.

Yes, the passions do run deep.

Here’s my report from Wednesday and a link to my photo gallery from the Romney event.

So what are we REALLY in store for?

Well, they say Virginia is for lovers…but then again, maybe that only applies in non-election years. After all, outside Romney’s fundraiser at the Pentagon City Ritz Carlton Wednesday night…a little girl held a sign reading simply, “MITT IS MEAN”.

In other words, Rick and Mitt: Grin and bear what you truly dread.

Currently, behind closed doors and over countless phone calls, the Romney and Santorum camps are likely trying to determine how to patch up their glaring differences and move past their less-than-flattering descriptions of each other. There's no doubt the RNC is playing marriage counselor in getting these two crazy kids to work things out. Why? Because as POLITICO’s Roger Simon said Wednesday morning as we sat on the set of NewsTalk, these two don’t just dislike one another,  they hate each other.

But they must play nice. Santorum, who deserves real credit for taking his place in the polls at 1 percent and temporarily vaulting his campaign to the top, eventually adding 11 states to his name, has a very loyal following of voters. They stand passionately behind the issues he adopted as his own: big family, little government and a strong Constitution. He used raw emotion when spewing venom on topics far and wide, from President Obama to radical Islam. The problem is that Romney and, more specifically, “Romneycare” (which later morphed into “ObamaRomneycare”) was also a constant target.

Remember when Santorum said Romney was “the worst Republican in the country” to put up against Obama on the issue of health care?

Romney’s return serve was to tell Jay Leno that Rick Santorum could be his "press secretary."

Now, however, it’s time to appear on a stage, raise arms and watch political enemies smile like they mean it. It’s a Washington tradition as common as the Cherry Blossom Festival or Marine Corps Marathon.

The timing of an endorsement has not been worked out — at least not publicly — and there’s been no assurance it will definitely happen. Santorum spokeswoman Alice Stewart said multiple times during a cable news interview Wednesday that it is time for everyone to rally around the presumptive nominee and that Santorum’s team will do everything possible to make that happen.

Santorum’s biggest backer, Foster Friess, has already stated he’s getting on board the Romney train, and the National Organization for Marriage is now endorsing Romney.

Whether or not the image of those two standing side by side will sway voters is still to be seen, but one recent poll showed that 36 percent of Santo-supporters named Romney as their second choice. Thirty-three percent chose Newt Gingrich.

Either way, the brinkmanship that usually pits foes so fiercely against each other will now draw them together, this time around a dinner table … and likely with a hefty serving of brussels sprouts.

Mitt Romney has won, again. A political hat trick is his latest coup. Virginia, Maryland and the ever-important Midwestern prize of cheese heads doling out a whopping 42 delegates have crowned Romney their king. That is at least, until November when Dems will chime in with gusto.

Romney’s delegate total will likely put him over 600 and more than halfway home to the elusive 1,144 mark.

Yet the talking heads, the know-it-alls and above all, agenda-driven critics will decide the headline is not his trio of wins but instead, a glaring sense of apathy from voters who still aren’t really on board.

They’ll harp on the fact that his wins were expected, that he outspent Santorum 4-to-1 in Wisconsin or that Santorum wasn’t even on the ballot in D.C. so of course Mitt would win. By the way, that’s a glaring problem with Santorum’s organizational structure that has haunted him before and will rear its ugly head over and over.

I’m beginning to think Romney could win the White House and still be excused by critics as President only because it was the least enthused electorate in history or some other derivation of the disgruntled blogger.

Don’t get me wrong. There is clearly a level of disinterest among voters whose support for Romney is really more anti-Obama than pro-Mitt.

However, as I’ve written after almost every one of these contests: a win is a win, even when it’s not a sexy win.

If you can grant me that, we’ll move on to my next subject. If not, I’m guessing you just checked to see what your 871 best friends on Facebook are up to.

So, loyal TCT readers who are still with me: let the three weeks of weird begin.

I say that because it’s 21 days before our next contests which are dominated by voting in the Northeast and most notably, Pennsylvania (or in Rick Santorum’s case, the Alamo).

Romney should fare well in most of those states and is within striking distance in Pa.

That’s a problem for Santo’s hopes. The native son is leading in a new poll in Pennsylvania by 6 points but he should be up bigger and he’d better shore up those numbers quickly. Any opening will directly correlate to Mitt Romney’s (or rather, his Super PAC’s) wallet. They will put on a full court press in the Keystone state where the delegates would be nice but the optics of beating Santorum in his home state would provide a possibly crushing blow.

“We’re going to launch a full scale attack,” said Santorum’s spokeswoman when asked how they’ll handle the pivotal swing state.

Santorum, in his speech after getting swept said, “we have now reached the point where it's half time. Only half the delegates in this process have been selected and who's ready to charge out of the locker room in Pennsylvania for a strong second half?"

Yes his rah-rah speech warranted some cheers and enthusiastic applause but is he just tilting at windmills?

You have to wonder if there’s a chance Santorum might consider getting out *before* Pennsylvania votes, especially is the tea leaves begin to predict an unfortunate outcome.

There’s no way he’d want to end on a “Gore-note” (losing one’s home state and having that be the albatross that hangs around the neck of one’s political legacy). I likened it to his Alamo but history will tell you pride doesn’t always result in victory.

It was no accident that Tuesday night during his speech Mitt Romney listed Pennsylvania first when trying to rally voters in the 5 upcoming states.

This will be a brutal battle.

Over the next three weeks, expect the unexpected. Desperate attacks from all sides. Stepped up rhetoric aimed at and coming from the White House, Romney treating this like a general election, Santorum treating it like a last stand—all of these can and will play out in some form and idle time means room for errors and erratic behavior.

Mitt Romney’s final words Tuesday night were designed to inspire. “We have a sacred duty to restore the promise of America. And we will do it. We will do it because we believe in America. Join me in the next step toward that destination of Nov. 6, when across America we can give a sigh of relief,” Romney said. “Join me and take another step every day until Nov. 6.”
But translated, what they really meant were: “I’m a shark that’s eating daily. I’m getting bigger and stronger and hungrier. I am beginning to smell more than just a few drops of blood in the water. Santorum, you’d better swim---fast!”

Like I said, get ready for a weird three weeks.

Mark my words, Texas will be important.

But then again, just because it was close that doesn't mean we have carte blanche to paint this as another pitfall for Romney.

If I had to put a headline on Super-PAC Tuesday, it'd probably be this:

WHEN A WIN=A LOSS=A WIN

Explain? OK. Mitt won where he needed to and then some (after all, this night wasn't just about Ohio. Mitt took Vt, Mass., Va., Idaho, Ala., and plucked delegates from other proportional states). That's hardly anything to sneeze at.

So there's the first "WIN." The "LOSS" portion of that title is based on the ensuing spin from those who can't seem to find optimism in their reluctant support for the frontrunner. The autopsy results will be skewed as another chink in Mitt's wanna-be white-knight armor, and you can be sure the one claiming responsibility for that dent will be Rick Santorum. Just as he did after Michigan, he declared victory even when he lost. He'll do it again under the premise that he's being outspent; that he's a victim of the 'elite' media; and that he's just a blue collar guy with a pickup truck going up against a perennial five-year candidate.

And the final "WIN" — that's what voters need to understand matters most in the end. I've used the analogy before, but I'll use it again. Sometimes in sports — imagine football in this one (since in some circles Super Tuesday was overshadowed by the news of Peyton Manning's split with the Colts) — when the first team has a commanding lead, the second team scores a thrilling touchdown, does a showy dance and then barks in the face of the winning team's quarterback. This, sports fans, is when the winner can get back in the face of the celebrant and utter one word to shut him up: "scoreboard."

SCOREBOARD.

The delegate count, while tough to figure out these days thanks to the muddy system of state and RNC rules, is almost 3-to-1 in favor of Romney now.

Yes, he'll face likely losses next week. Alabama and Mississippi aren't necessarily fertile ground for Romney, and true, states like Vermont, Massachusetts and Virginia were basically gimmes for him, but the numbers are indisputable. Pundits who want to add perspective and show off their abacus skills will point out that it's virtually impossible for any other candidate to amass the numbers needed to take the nomination away from Romney. That same group will also remind tepid Republicans of two sobering messages:

— there WON'T be a brokered convention

and

— stop dreaming of Ronald Reagan's ghost

Jeb Bush, Chris Christie amd Mitch Daniels have made it clear they're not going to take a stab at this thing this year. They're savvy enough to know you often only get one good shot at these races and they'd rather roll those dice in a cycle when Mr. Obama won't be on the ballot.

With all of that said, Tuesday night was indeed Mitt's night. Like it or not, he's now picked up 10 of the last 14 states and the time for Mitt to get out the hammer, break open the delegate piggy bank and cash in is now getting enticingly closer.

That Ohio hangover is a rough one, but the state that means as much symbolically as it does delegate-wise has, in the end, been determined (even if we somehow see another "Iowa," the delegates will soon be mostly Mitt's since Santorum failed to organize early enough and was ineligible to win all — including in Steubenville where he gave his speech) as another prime example of WHEN A WIN=A LOSS=A WIN.

P.S. A big thanks to everyone who tuned in to get five and a half hours of Thuman's Capitol Thoughts during Tuesday night's special POLITICO LIVE coverage broadcast on C-SPAN, Newschannel 8 and Politico Live.

So if you stumbled through the offices of newspaper editors across the country (New York Post, you know I’m pointing at you) these are the now discarded headlines from mock-up front pages likely lying all over office floors Wednesday. For those of you unfamiliar with that last headline, it’s an 80’s movie reference. Great flick!

Anyway, It seems everyone was primed to pounce on what would have been an embarrassing Mitt Romney loss in his home state…and whew! Romney could probably wring an entire assembly-line sized bucket of sweat from whatever Brooks Brothers handkerchief he used to wipe his brow while watching returns.

NPR quoted one Romney staffer as saying he was so glad to “get this Michigan monkey off his back.”

"I can't wait to get this big Michigan monkey off my back," a Mitt Romney campaign staffer just said, reports NPR's @Ari_Shapiro.

— NPR Politics (@nprpolitics) February 29, 2012

Yes, the pundits will have their fun harping on how narrow the victory was or how he should have performed significantly better in a state he was born, raised and the son of the Wolverine State’s governor. And they may just be right.

But consider the math. Even if Romney had lost, it would be more symbolic than anything. The split of delegates in Michigan (proportionate as mandated by a mad RNC since Michigan voted early) were going to be pretty even by the end of the night. Plus, Mitt easily took Arizona, which is a winner-take-all state, and that meant regardless of whom took the trophy in MI, Mitt was quietly padding his delegate count. And let’s be honest, the last laugh usually belongs to the guy who can point behind him and say “scoreboard.”

But the challenge before him is still “super” to say the least…as in, Super Tuesday.

In four of the 10 states to vote next Tuesday, Romney has big problems. He’s lagging in the polls in Ohio, Georgia, Oklahoma & Tennessee. Why does that matter? Because combined, those states account for 243 delegates (remember, Romney currently only has 167-depending on which count you use).

Granted, he should coast in other states with big tallies like Massachusetts & Virginia but there is a possibility that the race actually tightens Tuesday night.

Oh, and did I mention that he’s got another opponent besides Santorum, Gingrich and Paul in key states like Ohio? President Obama. Our partners at POLITICO point out that starting Thursday, Priorities USA, the Obama Super PAC will be running TV spots in the Buckeye State in hopes of taking the wind out of Romney’s already, slightly tattered sails.

Finally, time is not on his side. I say this only because it’s easy to relate. Mitt Romney admits he’s making a lot of mistakes on the trail these days, verbal gaffes, snafus. Displaying a sometimes ‘too wealthy to connect’ image that he’s dying to shed.

It’s not a good idea to mention that your wife drives “a couple of Cadillacs” or when attending a NASCAR event, to evoke imagery of weekly high-stakes poker games with car owners:

Having been on TV for my share of years, I chalk this up to a simple formula: Exhaustion equals errors.

We all miss the mark when you talk endlessly in front of the cameras after pulling a couple of double shifts. You’re tired and not vetting every sentence that comes out of your mouth.

Now multiply whatever fatigue most of us have on a daily basis by 100. That’s what each of these candidates is dealing with. Life on the trail is a series of speeches (sometimes five a day), fundraisers, meetings, phone calls and plane rides. You can’t always be your “A” game and that’s what we’re seeing with Romney.

Unfortunately there’s no rest for the weary and more mistakes will be made.

Alright, so in the end I guess I joined the fray in pointing out Romney’s hurdles, just not with such whit and not as the headline. They’re subplots. Yes, substantial, but not the headlines just yet.

Don’t fret though, if the time comes to tap into whatever clever creativity still exists in these fatigued fingers and conjure up a headline worthy of being above the fold, I’ll show more “en-THU-siasm”

Well, brush aside those doldrums and rejoice. The next debate has finally arrived.

After a respite of 27 days, the four candidates will square off tonight on a stage in Mesa, Ariz. and for the first time yet, Rick Santorum will be the top target. He’s made his way into pole position for this race and while his party opponents may not care to challenge his social views, moderators and questioners alike will relish the opportunity.

So far, the debates, according to polls, have actually mattered to voters who are watching in large numbers and who admit they’ve been influenced by the arguing.

As for the latest poll numbers, one can only imagine Mitt Romney has used every possible version of a head-scratching, eyebrow raising sigh known to man while wondering aloud, ‘how is this happening?’

Look here.

P.S. Since social issues/religion are a large part of the platforms, my POLITICO colleague Mike Allen raised a good question in today’s Playbook:

--Something to watch for: Will Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have ash on their foreheads?

MORE MONEY BOMBS

Meanwhile, look for requests after both the debate and more importantly, after the AZ and MI primaries for those oddly-named ‘money bombs’- petitions for donors to frantically help fill the coffers over a 24 hour period to take advantage of any perceived or actual wins.

Money is of course, king. So who is pulling it all in and who is spending more than they make?

An interesting breakdown here:

And finally…

PRESIDENTIAL IDOL PREVIEW

For all you Idol fans waiting for an episode with a Presidential theme… Tuesday’s Black History Month concert taping at the White House gave you a preview… (and in light of the above stories & GOP in-fighting, it makes sense Mr. Obama is a singing mood).

U.S. Capitol Police and the FBI say that the man was arrested in the vicinity of the U.S. Capitol building in an FBI sting.

ABC7's Scott Thuman confirmed that the man has been identified as Amine el-Khalifi. He has listed residential records in Arlington and Alexandria.

Law enforcement sources said the suspect is a Moroccan citizen in his 20s who was in the United States illegally after he overstayed his visa.

The suspect believed that the undercover law enforcement authorities he was speaking to were associated with al-Qaida.

The suspect planned to carry out the attack on U.S. federal workers, the sources said.

"The arrest was the culmination of an undercover operation during which the suspect was closely monitored by law enforcement," stated Dean Boyd, a spokesman for the Department of Justice. "Explosives the suspect allegedly sought to use in connection with the plot had been rendered inoperable by law enforcement and posed no threat to the public."

CNN is reporting that the suspect was arrested at about 12:30 p.m. outside the U.S. Capitol. The suspect, as part of the sting, thought he was wearing an explosive vest, according to reports.

The public nor any members of Congress were ever in danger, police say. Capitol Police say they worked closely with the FBI throughout the entire operation, during which the suspect was closely monitored.

Court documents show Khalifi came to the United States in 1999, on a one year visa.

In January 2011, he first met with an undercover agent and stated the "war on terror" was a "war on Muslims," court records show.

El Khalifi told undercover agents that he originally wanted to target a building in Alexandria that contained U.S. Military personal but later changed that plan because he found out the building had non-military civilians.

He then discussed killing U.S. generals and would research where they lived, according to court documents, that added he introduced the idea of targeting a restaurant in D.C. that military officials would frequent.

On January 15th, he detonated a similar explosive packed jacket in a quarry in West Virginia. On Valentine’s Day, El Khalifi met with two undercover agents, who supplied him with a MAC-10, which was inoperable, and then showed him the bomb jacket with component parts, court records state.

Detonation was going to be by cell phone. The MAC-10 was going to be used to shoot the U.S. Capitol security.

Walking by the Capital - the suspect's target - the Woodmansee family was noticeably surprised to hear of the arrest.

“It’s hard to form the words, it’s shocking words to hear, we're here with our children,” says Karen Woodmansee. “It’s something you never want to hear. I'm glad they got him.”

For those who work around the capitol, it’s a reminder that a terrorist attack could literally be around the next corner has frayed some nerves.

“I'm glad he was caught and lives were saved,” says Donald Smith. “It shows the laws and systems we have in place are working.”

Details are still emerging. Check back for updates.

Tuesday, in his pitch to Americans in favor of extending the payroll-tax cuts, Mr. Obama ended his speech by encouraging them to use: #40dollars when Tweeting as a way of pressuring Republicans to follow suit.

Watch the campaign trail lately and you’ll note this is a bipartisan trend. Newt Gingrich is even in on the act these days…although he likes to temper his social media persuasions with a tone of mockery, adding people can also, God forbid, talk “face to face” to spread his message.

It is an invaluable tool in politics these days and probably the least expensive way to campaign directly to followers who won’t attend actual events. After all, President Obama’s Facebook page currently has 25,177,683 followers. So you can’t blame them for tapping into such a vast, limitless resource.

By the way, I’m still stuck below a thousand Twitter & Facebook followers if anyone cares to help out. I.E....

…Tweet what you can do for Thuman’s CAPITOL Thoughts.

OBAMA’S ‘INNER-CUPID’

Channeling his inner-cupid Tuesday, or maybe just that of a husband who’s failed before on Valentine’s Day (we’ve all been there, Mr. Obama) the President opened his remarks with some sage-like advice for all men out there. Indeed, hoping to save anyone who moments later was rushing to grab the last heart-shaped box of drug store chocolates and battered bouquet, Obama issued this light-hearted public service announcement, a reminder and a tip. (Readers: if you’re just now realizing the date…odds are it’s too late).

CATS & DOGS, GETTING ALONG?

On a more serious note, House GOP leaders seem poised to give in on the payroll tax extension in order to avoid being labeled on the trail, “the party that doesn’t care”.

Granted, there’s a caveat for giving in on extending cuts without a way to pay for them. In return, they’re going to want the Medicare fix & jobless benefits to be made whole by trimming other budgets. But that’s another fight…

I admit it. Trying to absorb, digest and analyze every twist & turn of this race can take a slight toll on the body. Wednesday night, monitoring the returns from Colorado, Minnesota & Missouri...my eyes glazed over, head nodded and suddenly I was out.

When I came to, the numbers were all in and my phone full of ‘Breaking News’ alerts. As I like to dub it, I just awoke to a “Sweep-torum”!

Now, I did tell the 11 p.m. producer before leaving for the day to expect wins for Santorum in MO & MN but my crystal ball failed me (and most pundits) horribly on Colorado.

I’m not sure even Santorum himself predicted the trifecta. Here’s what he said Wednesday morning while speaking at a church in Texas:

While you may not think Santorum can go the distance, you’d better acknowledge that his victories are having a significant impact on this race. How? The dialogue. Suddenly, the not-so-soft whispers that Mitt Romney can’t energize the base enough to beat Mr. Obama are getting glass-shattering loud.

The critics and naysayers who scoff at the idea a so-called ultra-wealthy, moderate leading them back to the White House are suddenly in full-on panic mode.

While I would caution those GOP faithful that it’s still early February and we need look no further back than 2008 to see that divided primaries are hardly dooming, I will return to my argument on how it does change the political landscape.

Romney’s team is probably craving another caucus or primary to rebound but now has to wait all the way until the 28th when Michigan & Arizona vote.
That’s a lifetime on the trail. And that means, for the next couple of weeks the dialogue will be dominated by those questioning Romney’s potential and wondering if they should back another horse. That leads to another challenge: money. Romney, his supporters and his Super PACs are flush with cash but will some people find it harder to open the purse strings when they look at the scoreboard?

Remember, after Tuesday’s “Sweep-torum” (yes, I’ve used it twice now, I know…I can’t help myself) the ‘State Wins Scoreboard’ reads as follows:

SANTORUM 4
ROMNEY 3
GINGRICH 1

Tell me you would have predicted those exact numbers and I’ll let you pick my lotto tickets every week for a year. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, few things in politics matter as much as optics and those particular visuals right now show Santorum on top.

Now I’m not counting anybody out right now…especially Romney. But for just a moment, even if fleeting, we have to wonder aloud what a Santorum ticket could do and how his big night has once again thrown this race into a state of flux.

Oh yeah, and back to the optics. The picture at the top is of Santorum in that same church Wednesday as the congregation gathered around to lay hands on him and pray for his continued success. Looks a lot like an anointing to me.

I wonder how big that circle will be in 2 weeks.

Yes, I know this is rather pathetic to admit—and hurts my athletic credentials…but was indeed true.

Both on the field and on the trail you encounter bumps and bruises (just ask the Florida voter now suing Newt Gingrich’s campaign after a security guard supposedly stomped on and broke his foot), slow spots, injuries and thrilling twists & turns—even some name calling.

I won’t wax too poetic (I’ll leave that to either Al Michaels or George Will—pick your poison) but here’s a brief breakdown of how the big game may be a parallel universe to the big race.

Mitt and Newt. As cliché as it may be, these guys are clearly the big QB’s duking it out right now. They hurl attacks on the other team’s defense like Brady and Manning with stinging results and whose arms never seem to tire.

They lead. Many follow. And both are the most likely to end up in the end zone, with arms raised. Though there’s a problem with this parallel. The winner inherits more work instead of less and the loser is the only one who would actually have the time to go to Disney World.

Please forgive me Rick Santorum supporters…but at this point he’s most like Lawrence Tynes or Stephen Gostkowski. Both talented kickers who certainly have the ability to score & even win games (remember Iowa?) but are often overshadowed by bigger names with more raucous supporters.

Of course, I didn’t do a headcount but it’s probably safe to say more Pats fans don a “Brady” jersey than good ole Gostkowski’s, right?

Ron Paul is kind of like the commercials. Humorous, entertaining, not taken seriously by everyone but also is backed by followers so rabid they yell at everyone in the room to shut up when the ads start to play. He, just like the ads can bring in some big bucks…but if there wasn’t a game being played or race being run, well….

Oh yeah, then there are Jeb Bush & Chris Christie. Let’s say they’re playing the part of NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. Maybe they don’t pick who wins the game, but they certainly have a say in how it all unfolds.

So in the end, it may be a Hail Mary pass that determines a winner. Is that rosary-bead clutching moment going to be Super Tuesday…or as the field vows, will it not come until the convention?

Either way, Mitt Romney at this moment seems in best position to hoist the GOP’s version of the Lombardi trophy.

And if so, I wonder: what does his staff douse him with in lieu of the Gatorade bath? Those milk shakes he celebrates with after big election nights, could be a real mess.

But there was a pageant-like quality to the event in Las Vegas on Thursday as “the Donald” betrothed upon Mitt Romney the most glamorous (remember, we’re talking Vegas here) endorsement yet.

“You’re Hired” read the top of Drudge Report.

Trump’s real words, not too far off the mark: "It's my honor, REAL honor and privilege to endorse Mitt Romney.

“He’s not going to let bad things continue to happen”.

Aware of the surreal feel to the event, Romney quipped “There are some things you just can’t imagine happening in your life. This is one of them. (followed by laughter)

But why? After all, wasn’t Romney one of the first to say he would *not* attend the once-planned Newsmax debate to have been moderated by Trump? And when Romney met with Trump in NYC, didn’t he slink out the back door to avoid cameras while others prized their time under the bright lights with the man best known for piles of cash and pitting celebrities against each other on reality TV?

Asked earlier in the day about it, Trump gave this explanation:

But it may also be why voters didn’t give Jon Huntsman a solid-second look even though he met most of the qualities voters say they’re looking for in a candidate. He didn’t ever appear to have a *real* chance at the White House and people love to back a winning horse. Trump, is no exception.

Sorry, Newt. It might have been a bit of a downer for Gingrich, who was grinning ear-to-ear after a recent meeting with Trump and more importantly, there were reports starting late Wednesday night that it was he, not Romney, who Trump would tap as his choice for GOP nominee.

Here’s what he had to say about the confusion:

So in the end, does it really mean anything? Likely not to the savviest, invested voter who already has made up his or her mind.

But almost every week some state heads to the polls and in a race where momentum can make or break a candidate on any given day, the endorsement just means it’s one more news cycle where Romney will be first to appear on your TV screens, not Newt.

And there lies the advantage.

Then again, if you’re a Democrat (or just hater of the show “The Apprentice”) you may have busily been sending out YouTube clips marrying quotes of Trump & Romney as they relish the idea of firing people (or at least, those who don’t perform services for which hired).

Or you mock, like DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz did:

Next up: Who is Snooki going to endorse? #Trumpendorsement

— D Wasserman Schultz (@DWStweets) February 2, 2012

Quick, get a crew out to the Jersey shore!

But while he trotted happily up the steps to his charter plane today in Tampa…in his head, I’d like to think he was singing: “Sunshine, on my shoulders…makes me happy”

That’s right…the Sunshine State treated him VERY well. He escaped what at one-point appeared like a trouble spot on the map…with a victory that included majority wins among Latinos, women and people who say the debates were a factor in their decisions.

Remember, the debates WERE supposed to be Newt Gingrich’s forte. Then in Jacksonville, Mitt seemed to turn that theory upside down with his revelations that Gingrich too, has made money by holding shares of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.

Now it’s all smiles for the former governor. Even cheerily and literally, brushing off the “glitter bomb” someone hit him with before his Colorado speech today.

Despite all of that, it’s important to remind ourselves that Florida, while powerful, is just one state in this process that could go on for some time (on top of that, don’t be surprised if the RNC eventually forces FL to award its delegates proportionally-not winner take all).

Remember, in 2008 Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama battled it out all the way until June.

So, when Newt says “we’ve got 46 states to go”, Paul says there’s “Zero. Zero chance“ he’ll drop out and Santorum calls for a “re-set” to this race…understand it truly is a marathon and not a sprint.

And with those running shoes the candidates had better be ready for lots of odd twists and turns. Over the next 7 days, we’ll have caucuses in Nevada, Maine, Colorado & Minnesota and none of those are as clear cut as FL was. As a matter of fact, there’s a chance Ron Paul could take one, which would mean the first five states would have four separate winners.

In other words, the tunes could be very different for any one of the candidates just one week from today.

After all, the next line to that John Denver classic is, “Sunshine in my eyes can make me cry.”

Thuman’s CAPITOL Thoughts returns!

Welcome back loyal TCT followers! The hiatus is over and with the campaign now in full swing, I’ll once again be providing those daily tidbits, analyses & inside-the-beltway insights you’d grown accustomed to.

Growing up in Florida there was one adage that often held true: if you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes.

Extract the word ‘weather’, insert ‘polls’ and you’d still be right as rain.
This fight over the Sunshine State is a roller coaster and adds an ironic consistency to the tumult and importance of the big F-L.
Consider the newest numbers from Suffolk University

Mitt: 47%
Gingrich: 27%
Santorum: 12% (not currently campaigning in FL)
Paul: 9% (not currently campaigning in FL)

What once was a double-digit lead for Newt has shown the unpredictability of a swing state so eager to play a role in this race that it jumped the gun on its primary date and risked the wrath of the RNC.

What do these figures prove? That Mitt Romney and his endless supply of Super PAC funds (which seem to multiply as quickly as Florida key limes would on my parents’ tree---BTW, few can make a key lime pie like Pat Thuman) are having a massive impact on people’s perception of the former speaker. Mitt is outspending his biggest foe 4 to 1 in advertising.

With that said, can Gingrich pull another surprise, a la South Carolina?

If he does, it’d be a moderate shocker though within the realm of possibility. He has rebounded in energy and rhetoric since the Jacksonville debate that had him on his heels most of the night. He’s gone from calling Romney the “Massachusetts moderate” to plain old “liberal” now. He’s got Herman Cain in his corner (for what that’s worth) and has Mamma Grizzly growling lines on Fox News like: “Annoy a liberal, vote Newt!”

All are efforts that Mitt Romney has described as “sad”.

Ouch!

This has become the kind of slugfest Floridians typically only see during UF-FSU matchups. And while former RNC Chairman Michael Steele told me, “Overall, I think it’s time for these two to stop the playground antics. The nasty back and forth is a real turn-off”, don’t expect anyone to start strumming Kumbaya at the next campaign event.

What’s this all mean? I’d like to say all my years of covering politics there would allow me to take the substantial evidence that Mitt’s in the driver’s seat and be able to predict an outcome. But you may recall a little electoral snag called “The Florida Recount of 2000” where we learned more than we ever cared to about hanging chads and I found that 37 days in Tallahassee can force you to be awfully creative with only 3 days of clothing on hand.

So when you’re ready to prognosticate on who’ll be adding 50 delegates to their electoral treasure chest, remember these factors:
-By 4pm Monday already 293,000 Floridians had ‘early voted’
-338,000 absentee ballots have already been returned
-Florida has 2 time zones (so voting in the Western panhandle can often be affected by early exit polling in the rest of the state
And…
-just 537 votes separated Bush vs. Gore.

Oh yeah, and just for good measure… all candidates say they’re in this thing for the long haul.

So buckle up. In Florida-speak: the path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is as wobbly as that of a Category 3 Hurricane headed toward South Beach that too often ends up in Cancun.

Don’t like it? Just wait a bit.

Newt Gingrich warmed up with a particularly strong attack on Romney. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Texas Rep. Ron Paul also were sharing the stage for the second debate of the week and the last before the Florida primary next Tuesday.

Opinion polls show a close race between Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, and Gingrich, who was House speaker for two terms in the 1990s, and the two clashed repeatedly in Monday night's encounter in Tampa.

Gingrich's unexpected victory in the South Carolina primary last weekend upended the race to pick a Republican opponent for Democratic President Barack Obama in the fall, and Romney can ill afford another setback.

In the days since his loss, he has tried to seize the initiative, playing the aggressor in the Tampa debate and assailing Gingrich in campaign speeches and a TV commercial.

An outside group formed to support Romney has spent more than his own campaign's millions on ads, some of them designed to stop Gingrich's campaign momentum before it is too late to deny him the nomination.

Campaigning Thursday at a factory that is scheduled to close, Romney criticized Obama and avoided mentioning Gingrich. But the evening debate was on his mind - particularly the makeup of the audience in the hall.

"There may be some give and take. That's always entertaining," he said. "If you all could get in there we'd love to see you all there cheering."

No? Sorry, caught up in the moment I guess…after all, he sure was.
The speaker seemed practically giddy Friday when he walked by a camera stake-out position and loudly sang “Zip-a-dee do dah, Zip-a-dee ay…my, oh my…what a wonderful day!”

Truly, this happened. And while he didn’t make any post-Super Bowl “I’m going to Disney World” type exclamation after…he was very, very upbeat.
Maybe it’s because he knew his holiday plans were still on course but the more likely reason is because the GOP chalked up a big ‘W’ on the fight over cash on Capitol Hill.

You see, the Democrats and the President wanted very much to get a bill extending the payroll tax-cuts and unemployment insurance benefits passed BEFORE any spending bill made it through.

That would give them the upper hand in how the bills were crafted and possibly keep the controversial Keystone XL Oil Pipeline provision out of the payroll legislation.

That’s the project that starts in Canada and reaches Texas creating tens of thousands of jobs according to Republicans. (Critics say it could be only 3,500 jobs).

Either way, the GOP as one member put it “forced” negotiators in conference on the one-trillion dollar spending bill (void or earmarks) to sign on the dotted line. Within a couple of hours the House passed it and sent it to the Senate. The Dems lost their leverage. The payroll argument is next and the GOP isn’t budging on the oil attachment.

Regardless of the ‘payroll tax’ deal though, shouldn’t we be thrilled that we got an omnibus agreement?

Depends who you ask.

Speaker Boehner called this not necessarily a perfect process, but said it was bipartisan and commendable but firmly placed his feet in cement on the next big battle over Keystone:

I’m guessing you can predict the Democrats response was not of a pleased tone.

Reps. Pelosi, Hoyer & Clyburn emerged to proclaim this the Republican-controlled house orchestrated this last minute panic and has gone 346 days without a significant job creating agenda. Not to mention, this hard-hitting label that was even put in the monitors in the background of the press conference:

“I think this is a made up crisis by the Republicans. This could have all been avoided a long time ago,” she added.

And things were no rosier over at the White House. Press Secretary Jay Carney pressed repeatedly that the oil pipeline has nothing to do with extending payroll tax cuts to $160 million. Although he would NOT rule out the possibility that a reluctant President Obama might still sign a bill containing the rider.

IE…the holidays won’t be filled with cheer for one of the two parties, or neither. And time to get both of these deals inked is running out quickly.

So what do we take away from all this?

1-Just like a child who procrastinated on a science fair project might have to work through the weekend, many members of Congress will have to cancel their evening flights out of town….including the President whose family will head to Hawaii without him-for now.
2-Faith in our government will take another, unfortunate and perhaps unnecessary hit.
3-The more things change, the more they stay the same. Oh, Washington.

…I had forgotten to pay my car bill.

While it’s been a while (creditors, back off!) I remember vividly. Those moments are enough to cause panic among almost any of us.

Imagine though, if that unpaid bill were for roughly $1 trillion and had to be in by midnight Friday or much of your world would screech to a halt.

That’s exactly what’s happening on Capitol Hill right now but I’d dare say few of the 535 members of its hallowed halls are even remotely feeling the same panic you or I might.

This group of leaders seems utterly incapable of passing a budget bill that will get us through the fiscal year. Instead, it has been one CR –continuing resolution- after another, essentially a financial bandage that wears thin every few months and must be replaced at the last moment.

This is no exception.

And while few fear a government shutdown will really occur, it does take a toll both on weary Americans…67% feel most members of Congress should be voted out: poll is here.

…and government workers who are left wondering if their office will be open Monday.

This is a letter sent from HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius warning her staff there’s “no guarantee” a deal with be reached and some should prepare to “be furloughed and unable to work”.

So what’s the holdup this time?

Democrats don’t want to pass a spending bill until the GOP agrees to a payroll tax cut & unemployment benefits extension. Republicans passed a version of that bill but attached approval of the Keystone XL Oil Pipeline that Democrats hate.

Seem like bitter, partisan politics? Here’s what Speaker Boehner said.

So what about the deadline of midnight Friday?

With that said, no one wants to work through the holidays.
Congress, included.

My prediction: they’ll get the bills done. GOP will back off the pipeline, Dems will back off the taxes on millionaires and Americas will back anyone other than the current members of Congress.

Alright electorate, here’s a question for you:

Do you vote with your heart or with your head? Mind you, this isn’t a throw-away question. It matters.

It matters a lot.

***SERIOUSLY, I WANT TO KNOW YOUR ANSWERS; SO EMAIL/TOUT/TWEET AND I’LL POST THE FIRST FEW***

But most people probably won’t answer the former because that would mean admitting that on many occasions emotions are overruling intellect.

Though that’s exactly what some believe is happening with Newt Gingrich. Fans of the former speaker are so thrilled with his tough talk and brazen challenges to Barack Obama that they’ve latched on. He tugs at their political heart strings with lines like this:

“How does a Columbia-Harvard graduate, who was the editor of the law review ... supposedly the best orator in the Democratic Party,” Gingrich asked recently. “How does he look himself in the mirror and say he’s afraid to debate a West Georgia College professor?”

Adding he’d like them to be 3-hour debates, with no moderator. And he wants 7 of them!

(Hear the challenge below)

If that’s not throwing down the gauntlet quite hard enough, Gingrich also said should the President refuse, the GOP candidate will set his schedule to follow Mr. Obama’s so he can chase him around the country and make a spectacle of the entire ordeal.

The applause is always deafening. Gingrich is no rookie. Nor, must I point out, do I believe all of his followers are doing so solely because of his rhetoric. Many, especially in the Tea Party, see his policies as those most deserving of enactment.

But those who DID jump on to the Gingrich bandwagon for the wrong reasons may safely jump off when and if it slows down to a disappointing speed. As the attacks on Gingrich continue (inevitable once one becomes the front runner) some are finding themselves less enamored.

Mitt Romney hopes ads like this, and the corresponding website actually called www.NewtandNancy.com, will chip away at his massive lead and legions now chanting his name.

It may be working. The newest figures from Public Policy Polling show his “favorability” in Iowa has dropped a whopping 19 points in just one week. A huge dip. 3 weeks can be a millennium in politics, which is almost how long we have before the caucuses.

The more people address Gingrich’s persona and policies, the more they’ll have to ask themselves the question at the top of this column: heart or head?

I’d hate to dispel any childhood hopes & dreams (especially during the holiday season) of a democracy that’s built on civility--and apparently Newt Gingrich doesn’t want to either.

That’s why today he sent out this letter.

December 13, 2011

Dear supporters and staff,

Since I announced my candidacy for President of the United States, I have made it clear that I intended to run a positive, solutions-based campaign. There is not doubt, these are difficult times for our country. The American people deserve a respectful and constructive campaign that focuses on a vision for rebuilding the country we love.

It is critical the Republican nominee emerge from this primary campaign un-bloodied, so that he or she can make the case against President Obama from a position of strength.

For these reasons I have refrained from launching attacks on my Republican opponents, though I have reserved the right to respond when my record has been distorted. On Monday this occurred when Governor Romney and I engaged in what in diplomatic circles is called “a frank exchange” over our respective records in the private sector. That same day, however, Mr. Romney announced, “I’m not going to say outrageous things that can be used to hang [a GOP opponent] down the road.” I agree wholeheartedly with this statement. So let us hope that from this point forward we can devote our energies to real issues, such as discussing our plans for our nation’s economic recovery and helping to create millions of new jobs for the American people.

I also want to reiterate to each of you what I have said from the beginning of our campaign, and most recently last Saturday in Iowa: We will run a positive campaign focused on our country’s future. We will not be running any negative advertising. With Ronald Reagan’s eleventh commandment in mind, we will ask our supporters not to contribute to any so-called SuperPAC that runs negative ads against any other Republican contender and we will discourage ad hominem attacks on our fellow Republicans.

Therefore, I am instructing all members of my campaign staff and respectfully urge anyone acting as a surrogate for our campaign to avoid initiating attacks on other Republican candidates. It is my hope that my Republican opponents will join me in this commitment.

Running a positive solutions-based campaign is the only way to guarantee President Obama is not reelected.

Thank you as always for your support and enthusiasm.

Sincerely,

Newt Gingrich

For those who want the Reader’s Digest version…it essentially is a pledge that he will abide by the 11th commandment of Ronald Reagan by not speaking ill of fellow Republicans.

“We will run a positive campaign focused on our country’s future. We will not be running any negative advertising,” said Gingrich.

And after asking his supporters to refrain from donating to any so-called Super-PACs which run negative ads, he wrote:

“Therefore, I am instructing all members of my campaign staff and respectfully urge anyone acting as a surrogate for our campaign to avoid initiating attacks on other Republican candidates.”

Seems noble enough, right? Kudos to you, Mr. Speaker!

Wait, what’s that word slipped in toward the end there? “Initiating”? Hmmm. In a city where loopholes have nothing to do with tying your shoe, I and likely everyone else around the beltway, know THAT is a caveat…an excuse…an out.

So you WON’T initiate, but clearly WILL respond. Does that mean you can lash out as long as it’s in reference to any critic? A question by a reporter? A third-hand comment by an opponent’s surrogate?

And by the way, this call for supporters to “stay positive” by Gingrich comes just 24 hours after a nasty back-and-forth with Mitt Romney.

Romney suggested Gingrich return the $1.6M he earned as a “historian” for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.

To which Gingrich implored Romney to dish out the millions he earned at Bain Capital.

Technically, Gingrich’s letter (his equivalent to Jerry Maguire’s mission statement) is an effort to wipe the slate clean…surface clean.

Romney won’t make that same promise, which doesn’t necessarily mean he’s being rude, just realistic.

“You know, we aren’t running any negative ads at this point but we may. This is, after all, politics. There’s no whining in politics,” he recently said at a town hall.

In other words, don’t hold your breath America. 2008 turned out to be the longest, costliest & debatably one of the nastiest races in Presidential history. This one, promises to keep pace if not succeed.

In this case, I’m talking about former Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge, former FBI director Louis Freeh and former Democratic Governor Ed Rendell.

It’s not unusual to see them at 1600 Penn. Ave.
It IS unusual however to see them outside the gate and protesting.

(Photo: Scott Thuman)

See photos of the protest here.

They, along with hundreds, if not a thousand or more, American-Iranians and supporters put on a display unlike any we’ve seen at the White House in quite some time. Inside the columned portico was Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki meeting with President Obama. What’s unclear is if the topic that so angered this group, was ever broached.

At the heart of the matter is a spot in northern Iraq called Camp Ashraf. www.campashraf.org. It’s a small city occupied by roughly 3,400 Iranian exiles who as part of an opposition party, left their country and set up base in Iraq. The main problem is that at one point the group was listed as a terror organization. Despite that label eventually being debunked in the eyes of many experts, including then FBI director Louis Freeh, and removed by the European Union & UK lists…our State Department still recognizes the classification. Some (Freeh for example) believes the scarlet ‘T’ was only given to the group in the first place to appease Tehran in hopes of opening more dialogue and better relations between the U.S. and Iran. In other words: a political ploy in its greatest sense.

Either way, as a precaution the residents of Camp Ashraf were told to give up their arms, RPG’s, etc. in exchange for U.S. promised protection. They reportedly did.

Then, this apparently happened.

Those are U.S. supplied Humvees and U.S. supplied weapons being used to run over and kill what look like unarmed Iranian refugees.

Dozens were killed by Iraqi army groups who seem to use the ‘terror’ label as carte blanche to attack. Now, the calendar may be the Iranians’ worst enemy. When U.S. forces complete their pullout from Iraq at the end of this month, it means there will be no direct oversight of Camp Ashraf to ensure the safety of those men, women and children. It means they’ll have two options. Stay behind and hope that Nouri al-Maliki’s troops refrain from further attacks—or—return to Iran. The former means potential death. The latter, means certain death.

That’s why today that impressive group of supporters from all over the world (I interviewed Iranians from L.A., Ohio and Holland today) gathered to very loudly, voice their concerns with that group of lofty allies. To see members of both parties, who’ve held such high positions, take the microphone and call on the president to do “the right thing” was a stop-you-in-your –tracks moment.
As former Director Freeh told me, “the United States gave a written promise to protect these people.”

“I’ve been privileged to work in government in many different capacities,” Former. Sec. Ridge told me. “From a soldier in Vietnam to cabinet secretary, I never thought as a private citizen I’d be rallying with my friends…to implore my president to do the right thing.”

So how serious is the threat? Here’s what Ed Rendell told me.

“If you turn them over to the Maliki government without any protection, you’re essentially signing their death warrants.”

And time is running out fast, as was evident by the large clock setup on Pennsylvania Avenue counting down the days to Dec. 31st.

When I asked Freeh if he thinks they’re getting White House attention today, he said “We hope so. Do you think you are? I think so.”

If their assertions are right, I hope so too.

First, I was supposed to be at Union Station right now to follow Newt Gingrich at yet another book signing. Then, just hours beforehand the campaign announced its cancellation.

Statement Below from Hudson Books:

Gingrich Union Station Book Signing Cancelled

East Rutherford, NJ - December 9, 2011 - A book signing featuring Newt
and Callista Gingrich, originally scheduled for today at 4pm at Hudson
News located within Union Station in Washington, DC, has been cancelled
in order to address public safety concerns.

The newsstand event was intended to promote Mrs. Gingrich's new
children's book, Sweet Land of Liberty, (written with Susan Arciero), as
well as two recent books by the former Speaker of the House.

Hudson News apologizes for the late notice and for any inconvenience to
our customers.

Public safety concerns? Let’s lay out a couple of scenarios (since his staff won’t).

1. It’s a very cramped spot in Union Station and a large crowd (as he’s accustomed to seeing these days) might be difficult to accommodate.
2. Perhaps more likely, is the fear of a large and unruly crowd. The Occupy DC group has been boisterous and vocal. Recently, a handful showed up at a fundraiser downtown and caused this disruption:

The ‘Occupiers’ just Tweeted out this message, implying they had something to do with Gingrich bailing:

“Newt apparently scared to show his face in DC now due to #OccupyDC. We just wanted your signature!”

Meanwhile, most of Gingrich’s opponents were making themselves at home in Iowa and playing a little catch up in many cases, by going after the current GOP frontrunner.

While they’re also unleashing attack ads, few deliver knock-out style punches as this one which was put together by a pro-life production company. Talk about no holds barred:

So, why despite all of this does Newt still have plenty of reasons to smile? I’ll give you 3: Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania.

Check out tonight’s breakdown