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Delmarva Beach Resource Guide

Saturday & Sunday Beach Forecast

Saturday and Sunday look nice if you are heading to the Eastern Shore and north to the beaches in new Jersey. There you can expect temperatures in the mid 70s with plenty of sunshine. It is the Outer Banks with the big concern as that low moves up the east coast. That area may see the chance for showers and thunderstorms along with some breezy winds out of the east and some bigger surf.

Check out the Surf Forecast here (Swellinfo.com)

Memorial Day beach Forecast

Memorial Day Monday at this point appears to see more of the same as far as the northern beaches for temperatures but also includes the slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. At this point it looks more along the lines of a 30% chance. The low east of Florida will still be a big question mark come Monday but as of now we are keeping in the chance for a few storms with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Winds may still be on the breezy side and some high surf will continue to be possible.

Important Note: Wear sunscreen!!! I know you may think the sun isn't quite as strong as it's not even summer yet, but just ask my girlfriend who got fried at Bethany last weekend (cough, cough told you so...). Here's a good article on best sunscreens and sunscreens to avoid.

The official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was released this morning, May 24th at 11:00 EST. Their forecast is for a near normal hurricane season with a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 names storms. Of those, four to eight will become hurricanes with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. From the four to eight hurricanes they believe that one to three of those storms will become major hurricanes, which are category 3 or greater. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

It is important to note that no matter if the official forecast is for an above, below or average number of hurricanes that preparation is paramount. For example, in 1992 that hurricane season only produced six names storms however one of those storms was Andrew. Andrew made landfall in south Florida as a Category 5 storm that devastated that region. A quote that is always in my head is that it only takes one and with memories from Irene still fresh in resident’s minds everyone should have a hurricane plan and be prepared to use it should a storm take aim on our area once again.

Today: Partly sunny and warm with p.m. thunderstorms likely

Highs: 79°-84° | Wind: SE 5-10 mph

The upper level low pressure system that has controlled the weather here and througout much of the east coast is in its final day. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for more, slow-moving thunderstorms this afternoon. By tomorrow, the atmosphere will begin to stabilze but there will still be a chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures will climb into the middle 80s and humidity levels will make it feel like summer.

On Saturday, as high pressure builds across the region,, temperatures will rise through the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. There will be only a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm. On Sunday and Monday, Memorial Day, the heat will be on. We are calling for partly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 90s with a 30% chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

Going to the beach for the weekend. Check out our beach blog.

Overnight: Thunderstorms slowly ending then partly cloudy and foggy

Lows: 61-67 | Rain: still 70% Chance

Our soupy unstable air continues to generate these thunderstorms.    Manassas area 5"+ last 2 days.  Tomorrow less of a chance of thunderstorms but some still could fire up by late in the afternoon or evening.  As we get into the weekend, high pressure builds and the air becomes more stable, but hotter for a real summery feeling first traditional weekend of summer.  Heading for the beaches?   Looks great and check out all the details here

Check out this timelapse from atop our ABC7 Studio in Arlington (courtesy of our WeatherBug camera). As a strong storm cell moved over the area, you can see the dark skies, raindrops on the camera lens, and an awesome end frame... take a look!

This Afternoon: Partly  Cloudy; Showers and Thundershowers, Humid

Highs: 78-83 | Wind: SE 5-10

Vote here: abc790degreecontest@gmail.com

Updated Monday April 30: Will Reagan National finally hit the 90 degree mark this week? Signs are pointing to yes for this Friday. This comes interestingly enough after a period of 7 of the past 8 days seeing temperatures below normal. The last time THAT happened was back in late October and early November of 2011. 6 months ago! If today is below normal that will make for the past 8 out of 9 days. So of course it would seem fitting that we would hit the 90 degree mark only 5 days later. Time will tell! 

Updated Tuesday, April 17: Reagan National hit 89 degrees yesterday which was the warmest day so far this year but still no 90 degree day. As of now the 7-day forecast doesn't show any temperatures even in the 80s let alone 90. When do you think the area will get to 90 degrees? Keep those guesses coming in! I wouldn't mind wearing the ABC 7 swagger around in the form of a t-shirt, hat and umbrella.

Send your guesses to abc790degreecontest@gmail.com and good luck!

Updated Wednesday, April 11: Nothing like a little snow and graupel across the region to get you excited about a 90 degree day contest! With highs in the 50s today, it's hard to believe the temperatures will be pushing the low to mid 80s by the start of next week. There are still a lot of submissions coming in for the contest to be sure to submit your guess for the first day that it will reach 90 degrees at Reagan National. You can win an ABC 7 umbrella, t-shirt and a hat if you happen to guess correctly as well as see your name on the News. Good luck!

Send your guesses with your name and email adress to abc790degreecontest@gmail.com  

Updated Thursday March 29: Another day has gone by and there doesn't seem to be a 90 degree day in sight, though it can't be too far off! The record high for today is 92 degrees at Reagan National, set back in 1907. As we get into April, more often than not the record high for the day is in the 90s. There are actually only 8 days in April that have record highs below 90 degrees. Be sure to send in your guesses as there are already tons of submissions! Good luck!

Original Post Below:

As the D.C. area has seamlessly transitioned into Spring and early summer, it got us thinking about when the first 90 degree day will be. It's not quite that time of year yet but it will be upon us soon enough. Remember last year? Reagan National had the second warmest summer on record at an average of 81.1 degrees F, which was only second to the summer of 2010 which had an average temperature of 81.3 degrees F.

2011 included 50 days at or above 90 degrees. Six record highs were broken during the summer and 3 days were at or above 100 degrees. The hottest day was on July 29 when the temperature soared to 104 degrees at Reagan National. That same day the temperature hit 106 degrees at BWI Marshall.

So will this summer be just as bad? Meteorological Spring has started off very warm with temperatures in the 80s 3 days in a row including a record breaking 82 degrees on March 15. Are we close to our first 90 degree day? Climate statistics would tell you we aren't. Check out the first day Reagan National hit the 90 degree mark over the past 20 years.

First 90 degree day for the past 20 years

To send us your best prediction, send an email with your guess to ABC790degreecontest@gmail.com. If you happened to send your predictions to facebook already, please resend to the email address above instead. Sorry, we had a bit of a glitch so had to create an email address for the contest instead! All we need is the correct day, and we will choose from the winners and send you a prize. For contest rules, click here.

Remember, you are guessing for the first time Reagan National Airport officially hits 90 degrees, so disregard other area temperatures for the contest. Good luck!

Wednesday: Partial Sun, More Hefty PM T ’Showers

Highs: 77°-82° | Wind: SE 5-10

Wow, rain showers overnight again pounded our western suburbs with roadway issues reported in Prince William and Loudoun Counties. Remember if you encounter a flooded roadway – turn around and don’t drown. Weatherbug reporting stations are showing a 3 day tally of 4 to 5+ inches of rain in Prince William and a Flood Warning remains in effect until 10AM!

A stalled boundary will ensure another unsettled day with morning showers tapering with some pockets of fog. Expect partial sunshine again midday with more thundershowers likely later in the day and into the evening. It will be muggy and mild again with highs around 80°. Tomorrow brings a tad more sunshine and a smaller chance for afternoon t ‘showers. Storms become more isolated for Friday. The holiday weekend is shaping up to be a steamy one with temperatures more like July than late May – good thing most pools will be open!

The first public tornado risk statement was given by broadcast meteorologist, Harry Volkman in March 1952, who was afraid of being arrested by the government for communicating (correctly) there was a tornado “risk” for central Oklahoma. My science of meteorology has made incredible advances in understanding and forecasting short-term life threatening weather such as tornadoes. Do we know everything? Is the science of tornado prediction “settled”? In Joplin, MO, in 1970, in 1990 or now? Of course not. There is much to learn and still about 70% of tornado warnings are false alarms- there is no tornado. But we make a decision. Sometimes as many tragic stories from the devastating tornado season last year, the decision was not take shelter. Lives were lost. But the terrible tornado season last year also lead thousands of Americans in or near “tornado alley” to make the decision to purchase a “safe room” for their home. Joplin, Missouri, the city almost destroyed by a rare EF-5 monster one year ago, will spend $26 Million (with federal funding) for safe shelters for their schools. A good decision? Probably after the tragedy and near tragedy of last year, yes a good decision. Forecasting tornadoes still has many uncertainties, yet if a tornado warning is issued, we all have to make a short-term decision. Now more of us will head to a safe room and not worry if this is another false alarm. There will never be 100% certainty in forecasting tornadoes, but we will make a “best”decision.

The science of meteorology through satellite observations, computer “models” and continuing basic and applied research has also made impressive progress in forecasting the track and intensity of hurricanes.

Rather than minutes or hours, Americans in the possible path of a hurricane have to make a decision. Days ahead. Do I evacuate? Do I believe the forecast? There is that cone of uncertainty . . . do I take a chance? Is the science of hurricane forecasting, “settled”? Again of course not, but decisions, human and economic decisions effecting sometimes millions are made, knowing the exact outcome is uncertain.

Supposedly the great Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough making predictions, especially about the future”. However, we make decisions every day about some prediction whether it is the traffic during rush hour, canceling a weekend picnic or headed with my family to a shelter when I hear a tornado siren.

Why should a decision about what action we take based on expert outlooks for our climate and national, regional and local changes 50 or 100 years from now be any different than making a decision, taking actions, minutes, hours, days or even a week from now knowing the tornado or hurricane, snow storm or seasonal forecast is also uncertain. The science is not settled but the modern science of forecasting short term weather is solid and the modern science of estimating long term climate changes (yes global warming and it impacts) is solid. Are either 100% accurate? Do we require 100% accuracy before making a decision or taking action? Ask folks in Joplin what they will do the next time a tornado warning siren sounds.

We make decisions every day without 100% certainty, other than the sun will come up. The science of short-term weather and longer-term climate is solid. Neither is 100% certain but look where we have come in 60 years from no alerts to “You could be killed if not underground or in a tornado shelter”. Where will we be in making climate related decisions 60 years from now? Let’s hope history gives us some perspective for our future shared decisions.

Overnight: Partly Cloudy, Humid, More showers local heavy rain and flooding

Lows: 64-69 | Rain: 8 0% Chance

After last night's flooding rains to the west of DC, we're carefully watching storms and showers developing this evening. There are Flash Flood Watches and Now Warnings out . Heavy showers now getting closer to the DC area. This pattern of humid, unstable air over us will gradually break and the holiday weekend still looks sunny but hot and humid

Going back to that devastating day, we start with a look at the radar and storm relative velocity at 5:48 PM on May 22, 2011.

NOAA Radar  

The radar (left) is extremely impressive.  The higher/brighter reflectivity shows the extremely heavy rain and hail.  The area circled is the debris ball from the tornado itself.   A hook echo can also be made out surrounding the debris ball.  The storm relative velocity depicts inbound (green) and outbound (red) winds.  The tight couplet shown on the right indicates strong rotation. 

Over 200 mph winds, tracking six miles across the city of Joplin, caused more than a thousand injuries and 160 fatalities.   The Joplin tornado is the deadliest tornado on record since modern tornado record keeping began in 1950 and falls 7th on the list of deadliest in U.S. history.

Google Maps - Path of Joplin Tornado 

               2011 was an unusually active year for tornadoes.  It ranks second as the most active year for tornadoes with 1691 tornadoes recorded (2004 most active year with 1817 tornadoes).  In May 2011, 326 tornadoes were reported.  There were 178 fatalities in May 2011, with 158 of those fatalities due to the Joplin tornado.

NOAA - Joplin Damage

In an effort to prepare and protect people in the wake of severe weather situations, many new initiatives are evolving.  The federal and local (Missouri) goverenments are coming together to fund "weather safe rooms" in new Joplin schools being built.  NOAA continues the "Weather-Ready Nation" intitiative to help spread better information, so people make better decisions.  

Among the overwhelming images of a city succumb to a natural disaster of this magnitude, come images of renewal and revival. The StormWatch7 weather team compiled a photo gallery on the one year anniversary.

On this one year anniversary of the Joplin tornado we remember all those who lost their lives and loved ones in this tragic weather event and the people who continue to pick up the pieces after a life changing event. More photos in this gallery of before and after and today in Joplin

Tuesday: Some sunshine and warmer with showers and t-storms likely

Highs: 77°-82° | Wind: East 5 mph

Heavy overnight rain west of Washington made for a difficult and dangerous commute in portions of Prince William and Fauquier Counties. Over 3 inches of rain fell in those areas and caused localized flooding. One of our Weather Bug stations in Manassas recorded 3.90 inches of rain. Warm and humid conditions with showers and thunderstorms will contunue today and tomorrow across the area. On Thursday, we will see temperatures climb to the lower 80s with a little more sunshine but there will still be a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. On Friday, temperatures will reach the middle 80s with only a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms.

Over the Memorial Day Weekend, it's going to go from warm to hot with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. It is still too early to speak, with any confidence, as to whether afternoon thunderstorms will be a possibility over the holiday weekend.

Overnight: Cloudy, Muggy, a Few Showers or Tstorms Possible

Lows: Near 65 | Wind: E-SE 5 mph

The general area of low pressure is still over us and some showers and storms are still out there. Check out live Doppler.  Over the next few days all this will drift to the north and high pressure with almost hot air will build over us as we head to the big Memorial Day weekend.  Right now everything looks great for a sunny summery weekend, but we'll have to dodge some more showers and possibly an afternoon thundershower through Wednesday.

Monday: Occasional showers, isolated thunderstorms later

Highs: 73°-78° | Wind: E 5-10 mph

Get ready for another week of unsettled weather. An area of low pressure over Hampton Roads, another one offshore and an approaching cold front will all affect our weather during the work week. There are indications drier air will move into the region for the Memorial Day Weekend.

In response to the systems described above, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy through Wednesday with a little more sunshine mixing on Thursday and Friday. There will be daily chance of showers and thunderstorms but keep in mind, these showers and isolated thunderstorms will be occasional. What will remain constant all week will be the warm and muggy conditions and persistent chance of showers.

Story Image: Visible satellite imagery from Saturday, May 19th showing Tropical Storm Alberto forming off the South Carolina Coast. Courtesy of the Space Science and Engineering Center (SSEC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Prior to Alberto, Tropical Storm Aletta stirred things up in the Eastern Pacific at the beginning of the week....forming just one day shy of the start of the Eastern Pacific’s hurricane season. That storm was hundreds of miles from Mexico and the southern California Baja and posed no threat to land.

What we may think of as an “active” start to the tropics actually awakened a “tropical drought” on Earth! Believe it or not, Aletta broke what had been a 41-day streak with no tropical cyclones on the globe! According to the U.K. Met Office, this was the longest stretch without a tropical cyclone in at least 70 years!

Speaking of tropical withdrawl, a record number of days have passed between major U.S. hurricane landfalls. As a matter of fact, that record was shattered even before Christmas! 2,232 days had passed way back on December 4, 2011 since Hurricane Wilma made landfall along the Gulf Coast as a category 3 storm in 2005. Previously, it was between September 8, 1900 and October 19, 1906 where no major hurricanes made landfall in the U.S.

Graph courtesy of Roger Pielke, Jr., professor of environmental studies at the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder.

So, with two tropical systems kicking things off early this year, should we be extra cautious of how the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season might turn out this year? Not necessarily. Let’s look back at two other seasons in recent times where an early start didn’t necessarily equal a busy season.

In 2009, the first tropical depression of the season formed in the same vicinity as Alberto on May 29th. The storm only had a life cycle of one day as a vigorous upper disturbance kicked it off into the cooler water faster than Alberto will be next week. In the 2009 season though only 9 named storms developed. This is two less than the average of 11 for a season.

In 2003, Tropical Storm Ana was the first tropical storm on record in the North Atlantic basin. It became a subtropical storm early on April 20th then later that same day transitioned to a tropical storm as microwave data suggested it had a warm core. Ana formed within 300 miles of Bermuda and then wondered east through the Atlantic, so it posed no threat to land.

An early named storm in that season (2003) lead to an active year with 16 named storms.

The major factor at stake for the upcoming 2012 season is a transition to a weak El Nino which tends to increase upper-level wind shear in the Atlantic, suppressing tropical formation a bit. Therefore, the forecast is for an average to slightly below average season for tropical storm formation. So, while we got an early start, things could level off as the season wears on and El Nino tries to make an appearance.

Of course, stay tuned to the ABC7 Weather Center and WTOP Radio for the latest on any tropical development that may head our way this summer and fall!

Overnight: Mostly Cloudy, Showers Possible

Lows: 55°-63° | Wind: East 5-10 mph

Follow ABC 7's Steve Rudin on Facebook and Twitter @SteveRudinABC7

What happens when you take a vintage D.C. pictures and blend it with a recent photographs from the same exact place? Look at this photo gallery for the answer. A new Daily Eye Wonder here.

Clouds will continue to increase during the overnight hours along with a chance for showers. Lows will be in the middle 50s in the mountains to lower 60s in the District. Unsettled weather will stick around for the start of the work and school week with a few glimmers of sunshine. Any sun during the day on Monday and Tuesday will allow for just enough instability for scattered thunderstorms. The most probable areas to see strong storms will be across the Shenandoah Valley and east of Interstate 95. "Alberto" will have little to no impact on the area.

Drier and potentially the hottest weather of the year will arrive toward the end of the week and into the upcoming holiday weekend.

Stay with ABC 7 News, News Channel 8, WJLA.com and WeatherNOW for the latest updates.

This Afternoon: Partly Sunny, Increasing Clouds, Warm

Highs: 78-83 | Wind: NE 10-15

We might be missing the spectacular eclipse later today, but Mother Nature has more than compensated us this weekend.  For after two near perfect days, we are in line for yet another today with partly sunny skies, comfortable humidity levels, and highs near 80s.  A low pressure system off the coast could start to bring clouds to the area later this afternoon and there is a chance of showers late tonight.  But until then, enjoy what could be the last of the pleasantly sunny days until later next week.  

With the influence of that coastal system, a cold front that stalls across the area, a southerly flow, and the influence of Tropical Storm Alberto - formed yesterday off the South Carolina coast -  a rather unsettled week is ahead.  With moisture levels rising and warm air in place, atmospheric instability could lead to showers or thunderstorms occurring  right through the period leading up to the start of Memorial Day weekend.  The sun will certainly make apperances through the week, but the increased stickiness of the air will make us long for the charmed days we've had this weekend!  Enjoy your Sunday.

Overnight: Mainly Clear and Cool

Lows: 50°-62° | Wind: East 2-5 mph

Follow ABC 7's Steve Rudin on Facebook and Twitter @SteveRudinABC7

The first tropical storm of the season, Alberto, has formed off the coast of South Carolina. Winds are now clocked at about 45 miles per hour.

Closer to home, an area of high pressure will bring mainly clear skies overnight and  temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. Clouds will begin to increase Sunday as an area of low pressure (Tropical Storm Alberto) moves just off the North Carolina and South Carolina coast. Showers may develop by late afternoon, especially across southern Maryland and the Delmarva. Highs will approach the lower 80s where the sun hangs around longer, cooler temperatures where clouds thicken.

Monday and Tuesday will bring a period of unsettled weather to the mid-Atlantic with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s.

For the latest weather updates around the clock, stay with ABC 7 News, WJLA.com, NewsChannel 8 and WeatherNOW.

This Afternoon: Mostly Sunny, Pleasantly Warm

Highs: 78-82 | Wind: E 5-10 mph

Mid-May can be uncomfortably hot and humid here in Washington, but this weekend will be neither!  With high pressure in place and light northeasterly breezes, there is little to mar what should be a very pleasant Saturday and Sunday.  But while we are aiming for high temperatures around 80 both days here in D.C., it will be significantly cooler at the beaches with highs only in the upper 60s. Showers over the Carolinas could threaten the Maryland and Delaware beaches on Sunday, but today will be mostly sunny and windy..

While Sunday promises to again bring mostly sunny skies and even slightly warmer air, some showers could intrude very late in the day as that low pressure center to the southeast drifts our way. Shower activity could again be a threat on Monday.  A cold front on Wednesday, that will likely stall over the area, could bring instability and yet more chances for rain for much of the latter part of the week.  Any high heat, however, should again spare the D.C. area.  The pattern of the last two weeks with the range of high temperatures limited to just 10 degrees, 72 to 82, should remain through week's end. 

Enjoy your weekend as we head to Memorial Day, the unofficial start to summer!

Tonight: Clear and Cool Again Late

Lows: 47-52 | Wind: N-NE 5-10

Boy what a busy weekend and I think any showers stay well east and south through Sunday.  The weather for the air show at Andrews Air Force Base looks great tomorrow, some clouds Sunday but great flying weather and great weather for all the college commencements, especially the GW Sunday morning celebration on the National Mall.  Sunny dry weather for that.  Great weather also for the Preakness.  What a busy weekend. Late Sunday into Monday some of that moist that has been spinning to our south will move over us and then bring some showers our way but not until Monday.  There could be some Sunday showers out at the beaches from Ocean City south.  Have a great weekend.

But ready or not, we can't escape summer heat and humidity completely in Washington. So what will the coming summer be like? Another scorcher such as last July, out hottest month ever, with 25 90° days and that high of 104° on July 29th?  Or a break in hot humid summers?  Four of of the last five summers have been hotter than average. Each of our entire weather team has an opinion and the elements we look at include ocean- atmosphere links such as El Nino and La Nina . . . ENSO is neutral right now.   

One element I look at is soil moisture and drought and right now much of the south and southwest soil is dry and much of the area in drought.

It’s conditions like this that can give what we meteorologists call “feedback”. The soil, being very dry, does not absorb heat the way wet soil or the oceans do, but rather reflects heat back into the air and thus the heat feeds back or builds.

I’m afraid with that pattern now established and our warm pattern (12 of 13 months now above average) we are in for another hotter than average summer. But not as hot as last summer (+3.4°) or the summer of 2010 (+3.6°). I know that is being darning. So here is the rundown of what we all think about the coming summer.

Myself – Another hot one - temperatures above average and 35-45 90° days for the summer

Doug - I think it will not be a long, hot summer. Rather a “normal” summer is more likely, I think. If anything, might be a fraction below average temperature wise. Rainfall subject to tropical effects.

Alex - I'm a statistics guy and will go with persistence here. 7 of the past 10 summers have been above normal. I'll continue that but not nearly as hot as the last two. The normal is 77.7 degrees but the last two years have averaged above 81 degrees. I'll go with 78.5 degrees, nothing too excessive!

Adam –I think it'll be a slow start to the summer. We'll have a typical amount of heat and humidity, but I anticipate the final tally of 90 degree days to be near or slightly below average.  To be honest, I don't put much energy into the summer forecast because it's always hot and humid here in the D.C. area - you can't escape it. Sure, some summers are hotter than others and will have a greater impact on sensitve groups of people and some are cooler, but it's still just hot. You'll need your A/C and a pool will always feel refreshing in July in Washington no matter the final statistics.

Brian- Not an extremely hot summer with above average rain. 
Coming off a historically warm March, one may want to leap to the conclusion that the summer will be unbearable. Looking over the past statistics, we have actually had years with below-average summer temperatures following unusually mild, late winter/early springs so don’t fret the cooling bills just yet. Much like we’ve seen the repetitive pattern as of late with extended dry stretches followed up by periods of soaking rain.

Chris - I'm forecasting Summer temperatures that will run "+1.0 degrees above normal."  All told, it will feel like a “typical Mid-Atlantic Summer.” Additionally, I DO NOT think we will have more than one or two periods of prolonged heat (IE: Heat waves) and those periods, IF we see them, would last a week or less. Getting to specific numbers (31-36) 90° d or greater days this Summer, with the majority occurring in July.  I will add that I think this Summer will be rather active in terms of severe weather and storms, so make sure have your emergency kit in order and ready to go. Last, I believe that precipitation this Summer will be average or slightly above average. The wild card in all of this, of course, would be the impact of any tropical system.

Eileen - slightly above average temperatures overall with average to slightly below precipitation

Devon – I'd take a wild stab and say our summer will average "above" for temperatures and average "below" for total rainfall at Reagan National by the time we tally up the initial info. What do I think that REALLY means? I'd say a stretch or two (one or two weeks) of very hot weather, with generally a bearable summer but lacking in total rainfall... if I'm right, get ready to water!

Ryan Miller - I'm going slightly above average temps due in part to neutral ONI and slightly below rainfall values which could aid in bumping temps up.

Steve-I don’t think it will be as hot as last summer, but don’t look for prolonged periods of below average temperatures either. Around 40 90-degree plus days with at least 10 in the upper 90s and a few "super ugly hot days." Total number of days with rain or showers will be limited, but when it does rain, look for significant totals quickly. "

So the final tally is roughly 7 to 3 for a hotter than average summer in the DC area.  A guarantee?  Surely you jest.  There is no skill in day to day forecasts beyond about 7 days so all we can really talk about is the general outlook for the coming summer.

And can't forget what our colleagues at NOAA's Climate Predictiion Center think. The very latest outlook 

So be prepared, but if you don't like heat,  hope that this at least comfortable, low humidity pattern continues . . .and Doug, Adam and Brian are correct and myselfI and 5 of our team are wrong.  Of course keep watching Channel 7, News Channel and right here on WJLA.com.  We'll keep you posted throughout the summer hot, humid or cool and comfortable.

Tonight: Clear and Chilly

Lows: Mid 40s to mid 50s | Wind: E 5 m.p.h.

High pressure centered over southern New England is providing this beautiful weather pattern. Northeasterly winds are keeping temperatures just a little cooler than they would be otherwise. We are still watching an area of low pressure centered just southeast of Wilmington, NC. It appears likely this system will drift northward along the mid- Atlantic coastline line for the next few days. The effects on our area should be limited to a little increase in cloud cover on Sunday and a light easterly wind over the weekend.

By Monday, conditions will change as the coastal low continues. The chances of showers will steadily increase on Monday. And as you will notice in the forecast, I have included a slight chance of a shower late Sunday. All in all, it will be a nice weekend for outdoor activities. If you are going to the beach this weekend, be advised that north- easterly winds will be stronger and as a result, temperatures will be much cooler. Highs are only expected in the 60s and while tomorrow will be partly cloudy, skies could be mostly cloudy on Sunday. Looking well ahead…I am seeing signs that very warm temperatures may arrive in our area by next weekend.